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AWF
07-27-2007, 07:55 PM
I am supporting Ron Paul for President. However, if I were to play the part of a dispassionate and unbiased political junkie I would be fascinated by the question of who is supporting him. I find the RP campaign to be very unique in its diverse political backing.

In terms of previous presidential voting patterns, how will Paul’s support break down? Perhaps more to the point, would you share your personal presidential voting history. I say this in the spirit of stimulating discussion and research, there are no "right" and "wrong" answers. We're all on the same team for 2008, when it matters!

I will get this started. I voted as follows:

96 Primary - Forbes (Republican)
96 General - Browne (Libertarian)
00 Primary - Bush (Republican)
00 General - Bush (Republican)
04 Primary - None
04 General - Badnarik (Libertarian)

I offer some lengthy thoughts below on how a professor might diagnose the issue. I don't mean to pigeonhole or oversimply any political constituencies, each person is complicated. I would be hard pressed to explain myself politically in a short period of time. However, this political analysis exists to offer a framework of how I imagine RP's support might breakdown. Please don't feel as though I am labeling you...even if I am :)

One would think that the most fertile ground would be those who have voted Libertarian and Constitution, but based on 2004 results, this would only limit him to a universe of about 560K people (not adjusting for deaths, and of course the question of how many of these people would be registered and interested in voting for him in a GOP primary). If we broaden it a tad based on 2000 results, including Buchanan supporters, this group would be closer to 800-900K, but again, now 7 years have passed and you’d lose more people (esp. with Tancredo and Hunter). Could we throw in some Naderites? OK, a few very anti-establishment, anti-Republicrat global corporate forces, but I don’t think he’d get many Nader voters (with Kucinich, Gravel and other Democrats in the running).

For him to make a dent, he’ll have to pull significantly from the Bush, Kerry or Did not vote constituencies.

Given how strongly he has condemned the Bush administration, can he gain many Bush voters? This is such a big universe that we can’t typecast them easily, but it will be tricky for Paul. The proverbial “Paleocons” would seem to be drawn to him, and many of them voted for Bush as the lesser of two evils. Of course, there are some people who were enthusiastic about Bush in 2000, somewhat comfortable voting for him in 2004 and have since become very disappointed with the Iraq War and the second term in general. There is another core group of voters that don’t follow politics much and base their decision on the right to bear arms and other fundamental issues that relate to govt restrictions (IRS powers, farming, land use, etc.) that checked the box for Bush and would find Paul attractive.

As far as Kerry voters, again, the problem for him is that there is such a big field of Democrats to choose from. Also, the added risk to Paul is that many will not be registered to vote in a GOP primary. However, I would concede that there are many Kerry voters who could be drawn to him. The first group would tend to be younger voters, socially very liberal but not dependent on social benefits, and strongly against gun controls and Fed govt bureaucracy who commonly reside in Western and New England states. The second are the generally lifelong republicans who considered Bush to be grossly incompetent and wasteful, including a few Paleocons.

The did not vote category is the hardest of all to put a finger on. There are those who are between 18-21 who were simply ineligible. Add a few others in their 20s who never got around to registering last time. To the extent Paul is doing well among the very young, he could be drawing heavily here. The “I don’t vote, they’re all crooks anyway” segment is very difficult to size up and politically unreliable by definition.

Of course this is all very oversimplified given how complex the voting decision is, but I would be very interested to see how Ron Paul’s support turns out.

Green Mountain Boy
07-27-2007, 08:01 PM
04 General - Badnarik


.

Hurricane Bruiser
07-27-2007, 08:01 PM
2004 - Bush
2000 - Bush
1996 - Bush Sr.

Can't stand either of them. But the 2nd Amendment issue prevented me from letting the Dems win. Hopefully the court case by DC that is being appealed to the Supreme Court will solve that issue for quite some time.

kylejack
07-27-2007, 08:03 PM
1998: Eligible to vote.

2000: Harry Browne
2004: Michael Badnarik
2006: Kinky Friedman (Texas governor race)

And various different Libertarian Congress candidates.

kylejack
07-27-2007, 08:04 PM
2004 - Bush
2000 - Bush
1996 - Bush Sr.

Can't stand either of them. But the 2nd Amendment issue prevented me from letting the Dems win. Hopefully the court case by DC that is being appealed to the Supreme Court will solve that issue for quite some time.

Hum, really? Bush had vowed to sign the Assault Weapons Ban reauthorization if it reached his desk. Thank goodness Congress didn't pass it.

david.griffus
07-27-2007, 08:05 PM
2004: Badnarik

That's all I have been eligible for, unfortunately. I always vote on principle...never for the lesser of two evils.

Syren123
07-27-2007, 08:08 PM
1996-Perot (was that the year he ran?)
2000-Gore
2004-Kerry

There is no way on the face of this earth I could have voted for any Bush. I've been a registered republican since 1978 (my first vote) but I could not and have never voted straight party.

The hardest thing I ever did was to punch that card for Kerry, but I would have voted for Satan if he had been running against Bush.

MozoVote
07-27-2007, 08:11 PM
1988 - Bush Sr
1992 - did not vote
1996 - voted local races, cast no vote for prez
2000 - Al Gore (with some enthusiasm)
2004 - John Kerry (no enthusiasm, strictly anti-war vote :rolleyes:)

Patrick Henry
07-27-2007, 08:14 PM
Buchanan in 96
Howard Phillips in 2000
Michael Peroutka in 2004

mtmedlin
07-27-2007, 08:20 PM
1996 - Browne
2000 - Browne
2004 - Bush (I was drunk or stupid or both)

rajibo
07-27-2007, 08:23 PM
2000 - Bush and some libertarians
2004 - Kerry and some libertarians
2006 - Some democrats and some libertarians
2008 - Ron Paul and some libertarians

ShaneC
07-27-2007, 08:28 PM
To the former Bush voters, don't take this the wrong way, but to me it seems like either the Dems had something you were really against, or you didn't know what they stood for as "Republicans".

:p

Again, no offense intended, but the jump from what the Bushes *are* seems very different from what RP is promoting.

Then again, I was either too young or too uninformed to know what anyone really stood for prior to the '04 elections.

dude58677
07-27-2007, 08:48 PM
2000-Harry Browne
2004-Michael Badnarik

Member of the:

Libertarian Party
Constitution Party
NRA
ACLU
Central Committee for Conscientious Objectors

nullvalu
07-27-2007, 08:50 PM
2004 - Michael Badnarik

rajibo
07-27-2007, 09:00 PM
2000 - Bush and some libertarians
2004 - Kerry and some libertarians
2006 - Some democrats and some libertarians
2008 - Ron Paul and some libertarians

I'd like to point out that up to now I've been one of those 'lesser of two evil' voters in the elections that seemed to matter.

NEVER NEVER EVER AGAIN will I do that..

nullvalu
07-27-2007, 09:01 PM
I'd like to point out that up to now I've been one of those 'lesser of two evil' voters in the elections that seemed to matter.

NEVER NEVER EVER AGAIN will I do that..

The fact that I didn't vote for Bush or Kerry has helped me sleep at night.

Harry96
07-27-2007, 09:43 PM
1996 (first year I was old enough to vote): Harry Browne
2000: Harry Browne
2004: Michael Badnarik

Richie
07-27-2007, 09:52 PM
This coming election will be my first. However, each election, I made a decision on who I would've voted for.

2000 - Harry Browne
2004 - Michael Badnarik or Michael Peroutka

Buzz
07-27-2007, 10:09 PM
Kerry in '04, soon after turning 18. I didn't know crap about politics, but I hated the war and neo-cons. I had watched the debates between Kerry and Bush, and I don't remember being crazy about what Kerry had to say, but at least Kerry conducted himself well while Bush made a fool of himself.


I'd like to point out that up to now I've been one of those 'lesser of two evil' voters in the elections that seemed to matter.

NEVER NEVER EVER AGAIN will I do that..

Ditto.

shadowhooch
07-27-2007, 10:15 PM
I've always voted Republican in the Pres Election because I knew it would mean lower taxes for me.

I've never voted in the Primaries before because I believed all the candidates were essentially the same (full of crap). I was shocked to find Ron Paul at the NH debate and have been a fan ever since. I'm all about it now.

AWF
07-27-2007, 10:17 PM
Interesting to hear people share their thoughts, thank you for replying. As suspected, the early results suggest a mixed bag, with a pretty young audience thus far....maybe the (upper) middle aged people went to bed early :D

If you happen to have a voting record since Eisenhower, more power to you, but in retrospect I see that my original post was framed along the lines of 04 (and 00 a little bit), which is most germaine to the current environment.

Go RP!!!

Matt Collins
07-27-2007, 10:26 PM
Bush in 00 (I wanted to vote for Buchanan but lived in Florida and couldn't stomach the thought of Gore being our Prez - the race was much to close to deviate)

Badnarik in 04

remaxjon
07-27-2007, 10:46 PM
Bush 00 but supported McCain
Bush 04


Where has my party gone? You can only by the lies so long

specsaregood
07-27-2007, 10:46 PM
Perot ('96)
Bush ('00)
Nader ('04)

Akus
07-27-2007, 11:34 PM
2004 Badnarick
2008 Ron Paul, or if he's not there, I'll write him in.

lbrtylvr
07-27-2007, 11:48 PM
2000- (R Primary) McCain
2000- (General) Nader
2004- (D Primary) Dean
2004- (General) Kerry

ksuguy
07-27-2007, 11:49 PM
L. Neil Smith as a write-in in 2000
Michael Badnarik in 2004

jblosser
07-27-2007, 11:55 PM
1996 - primary Forbes, general Dole (this was my first eligible vote; I haven't gotten around to revisiting if I still agree or was an idiot yet)
2000 - seriously considered Browne but abstained
2004 - Badnarik

DeadheadForPaul
07-28-2007, 12:17 AM
2004 - (Dem Primary) Dean
2004 - (Presidential) Badnarik and libertarians and republicans
2006 - Republicans
2008 - Ron Paul

Dustancostine
07-28-2007, 12:18 AM
1998-Bush for Governor
2000-Bush for President
2002-Perry for Governor
2004-Bush for President
2006-Strayhorn for Governor
2008-Primary-Ron Paul for Republican Candidate
2008-General-(if Paul Wins) Ron Paul
2008-General-(if Paul doesn't Win) The Republican (unless it is Guliani, then I will vote LP or Const.)


Shane, The reason that I would almost never vote for a democrat is because of taxes. Taxes are our freedom, taxation on my production is slavery, and the Democrats always raise taxes. I will always vote for the fascist over the socialist. I am very very very disappointed in Bush, especially after doing a pretty good job here in Texas. That said I don't regret voting for him either time. I would still take Bush over Gore or Kerry today. I would take Bush over any of the Democratic candidates today.

It is much easier to fight against a police state (those who try to enslave you by force) than to fight the collective (those who want to leach you of your production). You can always over through a government but it is very difficult to over through a mob.

scrosnoe
07-28-2007, 12:37 AM
never voted for a shrub for anything ever (including governor and I was in Texas then)!

1980/4 Reagan *** (1980 was my first presidential race to be able to vote)
1988 Paul
1992 probably Perot but don't remember for sure - not excited about any of them
1996 Buchanan
2000 Browne
2004 Peroutka
2008 Paul *** (looking forward to this one!)

*** this is why the Reagan coalition and Ron Paul leading the Texas delegation for Reagan years ago is so important in our campaign material inside the Republican Party. He has standing with the Party and the last big win for conservatives inside the party!

Some like Ron Paul have been working for this for a long time. This campaign is the opportunity of a lifetime. Candidates like Ron Paul are few and far between and they change the course of history by standing up to run. It is an honor to be a part of the effort. Let's make it happen folks!!!

ShaneC
07-28-2007, 11:01 AM
Shane, The reason that I would almost never vote for a democrat is because of taxes. Taxes are our freedom, taxation on my production is slavery, and the Democrats always raise taxes. I will always vote for the fascist over the socialist. I am very very very disappointed in Bush, especially after doing a pretty good job here in Texas. That said I don't regret voting for him either time. I would still take Bush over Gore or Kerry today. I would take Bush over any of the Democratic candidates today.

It is much easier to fight against a police state (those who try to enslave you by force) than to fight the collective (those who want to leach you of your production). You can always over through a government but it is very difficult to over through a mob.

Interesting way to look at it, I'd never considered that approach before. Makes sense, but personally I think I'd rather be ruled by a commie than a fascist...

...course, I'd rather not have a *ruler* at all.

Anyway, good points.

I've seen speeches Bush gave in TX, and well, based on those, I would have supported him. WTF happened?

Dustancostine
07-28-2007, 11:10 AM
I've seen speeches Bush gave in TX, and well, based on those, I would have supported him. WTF happened?

Either he was posing in Texas (which I don't believe) or it is the people he has surround himself with, i.e Cheney, Rumsfield and Wolfowitz types.

DeadheadForPaul
07-28-2007, 11:11 AM
Interesting way to look at it, I'd never considered that approach before. Makes sense, but personally I think I'd rather be ruled by a commie than a fascist...

...course, I'd rather not have a *ruler* at all.

Anyway, good points.

I've seen speeches Bush gave in TX, and well, based on those, I would have supported him. WTF happened?

Shane, I'm in the same boat as Dustin. As I grow older, my main issue is becoming taxation, though obviously opposition to the draft is another factor in my decision-making. I am fiscally "conservative" and socially liberal, so neither major party really matches me. The Democrats, however, failed to stand up against the war, patriot act, or drug war, so they really offer nothing to do. The neo-cons likewise offer nothing to do. There are still a handful of Republicans who do believe in limited government, so I'd say that I'm more prone to voting for Republicans than Democrats.

I would have voted for Bush in 2000 if I had been 18. Sadly, he broke all of his promises for lowering taxes and opposing nation-building

freelance
07-28-2007, 11:21 AM
What if your very first vote had been for Nixon? Would you have voted since then?

This is my first vote for anything since 1972!

Brian4Liberty
07-28-2007, 11:31 AM
2000 - Rep Primary - Bush
2000 - General - Bush (Fool me once, shame on you...)
2004 - Rep Primary - Ron Paul (write-in!)
2004 - General - Badnarick

NCGOPer_for_Paul
07-28-2007, 12:37 PM
Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senator, and Congress

Registered in New Jersey
1989 - Courter for Governor
1990 - Whitman for Senate, Franks for Congress (NJ 7)
1992 Primary - Buchanan
1992 General - Bush, Franks for Congress
1993 - Whitman for Governor (worked on campaign)
1994 - Haytaian for Senate, Franks for Congress
1996 Primary - Dole
1996 General - Dole, Zimmer for Senate, Franks for Congress
1997 - Whitman for Governor
Registered in North Carolina
1998 - Faircloth for Senate, Keadle for Congress (NC 12)
2000 Primary - None (Registered Libertarian)
2000 General - Browne, Howe for Governor, Towey for Congress (NC 4) (all Libertarians)
2002 - Dole for Senate, me for Congress
2004 Primary - N/A
2004 General - Bush, Ballantine for Governor, Burr for Senate, Batchelor for Congress
2006 - Myrick for Congress (NC 9)

I will NEVER vote for a Democrat for anything, even dog catcher. I'm sure even if a Democrat was elected dog catcher, the first thing the Democrat would do would be create a government program studying why dogs run away.

winston84
07-28-2007, 01:57 PM
2000 - Bush
2004 - CP candidate

LastoftheMohicans
07-28-2007, 02:06 PM
'88- stayed home (actually stayed in my dorm). I watched Morton Downey at the time and if I had seen Ron Paul on I would have voted for him in a minute

'92- Marrou (LP)

'96- Browne

Quit voting. Disillusioned plus LP started to give up on its principles.

Nash
07-28-2007, 02:18 PM
1996 Primary - Buchanan
1996 General - Dole
2000 Primary - None
2000 General - Buchanan
2004 Primary - Dean
2004 General - Badnarik

stevedasbach
07-28-2007, 02:27 PM
1972 - McGovern
1976 - Ford
1980 - Clark (joined LP in 1979)
1984 - Bergland
1988 - none (Ron Paul not on ballot - no writeins allowed)
1992 - Marrou
1996 - Browne
2000 - Browne
2004 - Badnarik

PHenry
07-28-2007, 02:36 PM
'00 Pat Buchanan (Reform)
'06 Kinky Friedman (for Texas Governor)

I do not consider my votes to have been wasted!:rolleyes:

mport1
07-28-2007, 02:37 PM
Straight Libertarian ticket every time. If there is no Libertarian listed, I write in the name of one.

dude58677
07-28-2007, 02:54 PM
1972 - McGovern
1976 - Ford
1980 - Clark (joined LP in 1979)
1984 - Bergland
1988 - none (Ron Paul not on ballot - no writeins allowed)
1992 - Marrou
1996 - Browne
2000 - Browne
2004 - Badnarik


Is this the same Steve Dasbach who was once the National Chairman of the Libertarian Party?

stevedasbach
07-28-2007, 03:01 PM
Yep, that's me.

kylejack
07-28-2007, 03:03 PM
Yep, that's me.

NEAT. This place is getting cool.

Bradley in DC
07-28-2007, 03:04 PM
84 Reagan
88 Kemp primary, Paul general
92 Buchanan primary, Bush general (only vote I regret)
96 Forbes primary, Browne general
00 Forbes primary, Browne general
04 Nader (largely anti-Kerry vote in DC)

DeadheadForPaul
07-28-2007, 03:08 PM
Yep, that's me.

Nice :) Glad to see the majority of libertarians backing dr. paul

AWF
07-28-2007, 11:25 PM
Good to see so many different types of voting histories represented.

The key for RP will be to tap into people who have supported lots of different candidates...to the extent they have been politically active in previous campaigns and can offer some insights and help in bringing in other likeminded people, so much better!

Not to mention bringing in new people who have never voted or have only done so infrequently (I'm guessing this group is probably underrepresented on this forum).

klamath
07-29-2007, 09:12 AM
Reagan- actually not I was only 14 in 76.
Reagan
Reagan
Bush
Bush
Dole
Bush
Bush
Paul- no mater who wins the primary.

This might illustrate why the republicans are in trouble if Paul isn't noninated.

LeifreeKC
07-29-2007, 09:38 AM
I guess I'm the only one who voted for Dukakis in '88, hahaha.
Clinton in '92
Vote strike '93 - '03
Badnarik in '04
Paul in '08!

quickmike
07-29-2007, 10:09 AM
92- wrote in Steven the Crack Head as a protest vote. (this was a real guy by the way)

96- Harry Browne

00 - George Bush

04 - Michael Badnarik (he ended up with 265 votes out of 15,000 in my county)


08 will be the first time I have voted in a primary.

sylvania
07-29-2007, 10:20 AM
96- Clinton

00 - No one. I was living in Hungary and never mailed in my ballot. You would not believe how that country followed American politics that year.

04 - Left it blank, intentionally.

08 - Ron Paul

inibo
07-29-2007, 11:01 AM
2008 If Ron Paul does not win see 2006, only I'm gonna be a lot more pissed this time.
2008 General Election: Ron Paul, if I have to write him in so be it.
2008 Maryland Republican Primary: Ron Paul, if I have to write him in so be it.
2007 I put my cynicism on hold because I couldn't stop all this giddy hope from welling up inside me.
2006 I realized voting was a joke. I.E., what color chains would you prefer: red or blue?
2004 Kerry, with a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach
2000 Gore, with no enthusiasm
1996 I honestly don't remember if I voted or not--how's that for engaged?
1992 Perot
(Didn't vote)
1974 first year of eligibility. Didn't vote.

jdbrown
07-29-2007, 01:59 PM
Eligible to vote in 1999.

2000 primaries: Alan Keyes
2000 general: Howard Phillips
2004 primaries: N/A
2004 general: Bush
2008 primaries: Paul
2008 general (if Paul doesn't get the nomination): Probably either Ron Paul as a write-in or the Constitution Party candidate. I might be convinced to vote for Fred Thompson if I found out more about him, but that would be a very tough sell. I won't even consider the other front runners.

I do partly regret my vote in 2004. The only thing I've been in any way gratified with for Bush's time in office is the two new Supreme Court justices. I am happy to see influence going back to the conservative side from the Ginsberg/Stevens/Breyer/Souter eminent-domain wing of the court. Other than that, I can't think of anything I'm happy with Bush about. Maybe lower taxes if he hadn't simultaneously increased the federal budget by 50%.

rodent
07-29-2007, 02:03 PM
2000 - Al Gore
2004 - Couldn't decide on candidate, didn't vote

I wanted Bush's privatization of social security, but I didn't want his foreign policy. I didn't like Kerry at all. I had nowhere to go.

I felt dirty not voting, but I honestly didn't have a preference for either Bush or Kerry. I didn't take libertarians seriously until around 2006.

When Ron Paul showed up, I got very excited.

AZ Libertarian
07-29-2007, 02:32 PM
http://photos3.meetupstatic.com/photos/member/9/a/f/e/highres_159678.jpeg

I registered to vote (Libertarian) for the first time in my life the day after he was nominated.

angelatc
07-29-2007, 02:47 PM
I haven't voted for a Democrat or a Republican since Bush the first was up for his second term. I always vote 3rd party and I always vote to oust the incumbent when there's no viable 3rd party.

Lois
07-29-2007, 02:53 PM
The last election, I wrote in Lou Dobbs, and before that I wasn't into Politics, because I thought it was all a bunch of nasty crap with power hungry people trying to get elected, so I never voted.