Can We Actually Win NV??

[Kotin]

i really want to know..

i mean we said the same thing about NH... and MI


what supports this theory of victory in NV?

[idiom]

Nobody else seems to care about NV.

[Give me liberty]

I think we can and we will.

As for NH, i sure hope that state will vote for Ron paul on super tesuday :/

[Kotin]

I think we can and we will.

As for NH, i sure hope that state will vote for Ron paul on super tesuday :/

whoa man..

NH is over and done, and we didnt do too good...

[hueylong]

Winning Nevada will be tough. We should do well, and it should help the campaign.

[Bilgefisher]

I think there is a chance of doing well in Nevada. Is a win possible? I won't ule it out, but I won't hold my breathe either. The low turnout and a similar donor per capita ratio is working to our favor. Remmeber in NH we had 15k votes and only 8%. If we only get half that number of votes we can look at around 20-25%. Voter turnout in Nevada is expected to be 25-30k. We'll soon find out.

[Kotin]

thanks guys for the info!

[da32130]

thanks guys for the info!


Here is some more:

We have 2108 donors in nevada. With a turnout of 30k we already have 6% if just donors come.

Only Paul and Romney have any organization in NV and Paul's is bigger by some measures.

If our organization there is working at all and turnout is really low we could do well.

Turnout is a big unknown, this explains it:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=92439

In Iowa we had about 9 votes for every donor. But nevada is a closed caucus(versus an open one) and this is the first time Nevada has ever mattered. So that ratio should fall.

[Sarkin]

30k expected votes, and with the Democrats hitting the area very hard, perhaps a bit more than half of those votes will be Democrat. Let's say 14k votes cast are Republican. With the number of Nevada donors the guy just said, we'd have 15% of the vote. However, I have no idea whether it counts as a second donor if the same guy donated again. Let's assume it does, and throw in a few deaths/moving away/not votes, and we end up with 1,500 as a base. We're now at 11%, with no non-donor votes counted. Throw on another 1k votes, though, and our percentage skyrockets to 18%.

It all depends on our turnout and overall turnout. We could be anywhere from fourth to first, but I'm going to say definitely third, and optimistically second.

[da32130]

30k expected votes, and with the Democrats hitting the area very hard, perhaps a bit more than half of those votes will be Democrat. Let's say 14k votes cast are Republican. With the number of Nevada donors the guy just said, we'd have 15% of the vote. However, I have no idea whether it counts as a second donor if the same guy donated again. Let's assume it does, and throw in a few deaths/moving away/not votes, and we end up with 1,500 as a base. We're now at 11%, with no non-donor votes counted. Throw on another 1k votes, though, and our percentage skyrockets to 18%.

It all depends on our turnout and overall turnout. We could be anywhere from fourth to first, but I'm going to say definitely third, and optimistically second.

30k is only for Republicans.

Dems will probably have 40-60k+

[Sarkin]

Ah, I see. Well, then, who knows?

[stevedasbach]

30k expected votes, and with the Democrats hitting the area very hard, perhaps a bit more than half of those votes will be Democrat. Let's say 14k votes cast are Republican. With the number of Nevada donors the guy just said, we'd have 15% of the vote. However, I have no idea whether it counts as a second donor if the same guy donated again. Let's assume it does, and throw in a few deaths/moving away/not votes, and we end up with 1,500 as a base. We're now at 11%, with no non-donor votes counted. Throw on another 1k votes, though, and our percentage skyrockets to 18%.

It all depends on our turnout and overall turnout. We could be anywhere from fourth to first, but I'm going to say definitely third, and optimistically second.

I believe that 25-30k is a projection for just the Republicans. Democratic turnout will likely be greater.

[Kotin]

hmmm, wow..

[Bilgefisher]

Also, I just took a look at the Nevada Meetups. Nevada has over 1200 Meetup members. Nearl 800 in Vegas alone and around 200 around Carson city. With just meetup members alone we could see around 3%.

[Jimmy]

30k expected votes, and with the Democrats hitting the area very hard, perhaps a bit more than half of those votes will be Democrat. Let's say 14k votes cast are Republican. With the number of Nevada donors the guy just said, we'd have 15% of the vote. However, I have no idea whether it counts as a second donor if the same guy donated again. Let's assume it does, and throw in a few deaths/moving away/not votes, and we end up with 1,500 as a base. We're now at 11%, with no non-donor votes counted. Throw on another 1k votes, though, and our percentage skyrockets to 18%.

It all depends on our turnout and overall turnout. We could be anywhere from fourth to first, but I'm going to say definitely third, and optimistically second.

30k expected is the key I suppose.....what where the increases in voter %'s of earily states from previous year that already happened....and how does that 30k number sound with that same % increase is applied in NV?
Sounds like were doing well!:cool:

[Phunbaba]

30k is just Republicans. Democrats are expected to be around 60k. If we get a turnout of 30k or less, Ron Paul is expected to get 1st or 2nd place. If the turnout is bigger, expect Romney to win, with Paul in 2nd or 3rd, POSSIBLY 4th, but I highly doubt a 4th place showing.

[ghemminger]

We have massive behind the scenes in NV keep donating to Grassroots and we can be more effective

[jacmicwag]

Sure, let Carol count the votes.