Donation to Vote ratio so far

[ryvin1]

ok crunched some numbers to see if there is something to be said of the ratio of donations being a preview to votes and this is what I have to far. (Here is a Google Doc if you want to see it in the spreadsheet form. http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...woni5E2NJD7WGQ)

State Donations votes at Current Ave ratio votes 1 to 10 votes 1 to 25 Votes received Ratio donation/votes received
IA 683 15,428 6,830 17,075 11,817 17.30161054
MI 2141 48,362 21,410 53,525 54,434 25.42456796
NH 703 15,880 7,030 17,575 17,603 25.0398293
WY 181 4,089 1,810 4,525
SC 822 18,568 8,220 20,550
NV 1056 23,854 10,560 26,400
FL 4447 100,452 44,470 111,175
HI 348 7,861 3,480 8,700
MI 2141 48,362 21,410 53,525
AL 788 17,800 7,880 19,700
AK 349 7,883 3,490 8,725
AZ 2152 48,611 21,520 53,800
AR 448 10,120 4,480 11,200
CA 9404 212,424 94,040 235,100
CO 1606 36,277 16,060 40,150
CT 742 16,761 7,420 18,550
DE 129 2,914 1,290 3,225
GA 1873 42,309 18,730 46,825
IL 2417 54,597 24,170 60,425
MA 1228 27,739 12,280 30,700
MN 1213 27,400 12,130 30,325
MS 332 7,499 3,320 8,300
MO 1278 28,868 12,780 31,950
MT 450 10,165 4,500 11,250
NJ 1677 37,881 16,770 41,925
NY 3260 73,639 32,600 81,500
ND 132 2,982 1,320 3,300
OK 689 15,564 6,890 17,225
TN 1438 32,483 14,380 35,950
UT 898 20,285 8,980 22,450


Formatting here sucks not sure how to fix it but, first col - State, 2nd col - est donation per state based on ronpaulgraphs.com ( they say not exact on site, actualy number of donation could be higher I guess), 3rd col - estimate # of votes if votes received come in at current average of donor to vote, 4th col - estimate # of votes if at 1:10 ratio, 5th col - estimate # of votes received at ratio of 1:25, 4th col - actual # votes for that state, 5th col - actual ratio of donations to votes for that state. I've put in states that look like they will be coming up to super Tuesday to give a possible number of votes not based off a stupid poll but current trend of actually data. This may be totally bogus but I'd put more into this then stupid polls. Not sure if you can use the number of past voters in a repub primary as we are bringing in a bunch of people who normally wouldn't vote in the repub primary either because of party crossing or previously no interest in the past politics which seems to me as a large portion of new ron paul voters.

[Eponym_mi]

NH and MI were both about 25:1 at the time of their election. You really can't apply the same to caucaus states because caucauses tend to disenfranchise so many voters, i.e., people that are required to work, people that are out of town, etc.

[Yom]

Iowa was about 10:1. I thought MI was, too, actually.

[ryvin1]

hmm so no one know for sure?

[Eponym_mi]

Based on donor count for MI from ronpaulgraphs.com at the time of the primary, there were 2140 donors. The vote for RP was approx. 54000. So, the voter donor ratio was 25:1. I don't recall NH's exact numbers, but did the same calculation and the ratio was approx. 25:1 there. Like I said, the same ratio applied to caucaus states is misleading.

[LilGator]

We currently have 882 donors in SC, giving us approx. 22,050 voters Saturday using a 25:1 ratio.

In NV, we have 1055 donors yielding us approx 10,550 voters Saturday using the 10:1 caucus ratio.

In the 2000 primary, SC had 197,923 Republican voters. Using those numbers it would give us 11.14% of the vote.

The expected turnout for the NV caucus is 30,000 to 40,000, that would give us anywhere from 26.38% to 35.17% using a 10:1 ratio.

[mosquitobite]

We currently have 882 donors in SC, giving us approx. 22,050 voters Saturday using a 25:1 ratio.

In NV, we have 1055 donors yielding us approx 10,550 voters Saturday using the 10:1 caucus ratio.

In the 2000 primary, SC had 197,923 Republican voters. Using those numbers it would give us 11.14% of the vote.

The expected turnout for the NV caucus is 30,000 to 40,000, that would give us anywhere from 26.38% to 35.17% using a 10:1 ratio.

NIIIIICE! :D

[LilGator]

Hmm, now I'm seeing 573,101 as the total SC 2000 primary turnout ... that would put us at 3.85%...

[AlexMerced]

Hmm, now I'm seeing 573,101 as the total SC 2000 primary turnout ... that would put us at 3.85%...

something like that is more likely due to the organization by the other candidates in SC, though we can definetly own Nevada real easily

[ryvin1]

ok crunched some numbers to see if there is something to be said of the ratio of donations being a preview to votes and this is what I have to far. (Here is a Google Doc if you want to see it in the spreadsheet form. http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pAkAY6Hxrwoni5E2NJD7WGQ)

State Donations votes at Current Ave ratio votes 1 to 10 votes 1 to 25 Votes received Ratio donation/votes received
IA 683 15,428 6,830 17,075 11,817 17.30161054
MI 2141 48,362 21,410 53,525 54,434 25.42456796
NH 703 15,880 7,030 17,575 17,603 25.0398293
WY 181 4,089 1,810 4,525
SC 822 18,568 8,220 20,550
NV 1056 23,854 10,560 26,400
FL 4447 100,452 44,470 111,175
HI 348 7,861 3,480 8,700
MI 2141 48,362 21,410 53,525
AL 788 17,800 7,880 19,700
AK 349 7,883 3,490 8,725
AZ 2152 48,611 21,520 53,800
AR 448 10,120 4,480 11,200
CA 9404 212,424 94,040 235,100
CO 1606 36,277 16,060 40,150
CT 742 16,761 7,420 18,550
DE 129 2,914 1,290 3,225
GA 1873 42,309 18,730 46,825
IL 2417 54,597 24,170 60,425
MA 1228 27,739 12,280 30,700
MN 1213 27,400 12,130 30,325
MS 332 7,499 3,320 8,300
MO 1278 28,868 12,780 31,950
MT 450 10,165 4,500 11,250
NJ 1677 37,881 16,770 41,925
NY 3260 73,639 32,600 81,500
ND 132 2,982 1,320 3,300
OK 689 15,564 6,890 17,225
TN 1438 32,483 14,380 35,950
UT 898 20,285 8,980 22,450


Formatting here sucks not sure how to fix it but, first col - State, 2nd col - est donation per state based on ronpaulgraphs.com ( they say not exact on site, actualy number of donation could be higher I guess), 3rd col - estimate # of votes if votes received come in at current average of donor to vote, 4th col - estimate # of votes if at 1:10 ratio, 5th col - estimate # of votes received at ratio of 1:25, 4th col - actual # votes for that state, 5th col - actual ratio of donations to votes for that state. I've put in states that look like they will be coming up to super Tuesday to give a possible number of votes not based off a stupid poll but current trend of actually data. This may be totally bogus but I'd put more into this then stupid polls. Not sure if you can use the number of past voters in a repub primary as we are bringing in a bunch of people who normally wouldn't vote in the repub primary either because of party crossing or previously no interest in the past politics which seems to me as a large portion of new ron paul voters.

[ryvin1]

ok main post updated with the numbers, please let me know if there is anything else I should take account for. I think this is a better metric of possible performance then some of these Media controller polls.

[Eponym_mi]

ok main post updated with the numbers, please let me know if there is anything else I should take account for. I think this is a better metric of possible performance then some of these Media controller polls.

If you can, obtain the number of voters in each state for the 2000 Republican primary...increase it by 10%. Then divide the expected votes for RP based on the Voter|Donor ratio by the expected number of primary voters. This should give us all an idea where we really need to focus.

[mosquitobite]

If you can, obtain the number of voters in each state for the 2000 Republican primary...increase it by 10%. Then divide the expected votes for RP based on the Voter|Donor ratio by the expected number of primary voters. This should give us all an idea where we really need to focus.

If you do it that way, where are you getting the 10% number?

How did Iowa 2008 turnout compare to 2000? NH?

[Eponym_mi]

If you do it that way, where are you getting the 10% number?

How did Iowa 2008 turnout compare to 2000? NH?

What I was trying to address with the 10% is increased turn out. However, after looking at this year's turnout for IA, NH, and MI in comparison to 2000, adding 10% is not nearly enough. Turnout in MI 2000 vs 2008 was up at least 40% (about 600K vs 850K). There seems to be a lot more interest in this election cycle.

[adrianr]

<pre>
State Donations votes at Current Ave ratio votes 1 to 10 votes 1 to 25 Votes received Ratio donation/votes received
IA 683 15,428 6,830 17,075 11,817 17.30161054
MI 2141 48,362 21,410 53,525 54,434 25.42456796
NH 703 15,880 7,030 17,575 17,603 25.0398293
WY 181 4,089 1,810 4,525
SC 822 18,568 8,220 20,550
NV 1056 23,854 10,560 26,400
FL 4447 100,452 44,470 111,175
HI 348 7,861 3,480 8,700
MI 2141 48,362 21,410 53,525
AL 788 17,800 7,880 19,700
AK 349 7,883 3,490 8,725
AZ 2152 48,611 21,520 53,800
AR 448 10,120 4,480 11,200
CA 9404 212,424 94,040 235,100
CO 1606 36,277 16,060 40,150
CT 742 16,761 7,420 18,550
DE 129 2,914 1,290 3,225
GA 1873 42,309 18,730 46,825
IL 2417 54,597 24,170 60,425
MA 1228 27,739 12,280 30,700
MN 1213 27,400 12,130 30,325
MS 332 7,499 3,320 8,300
MO 1278 28,868 12,780 31,950
MT 450 10,165 4,500 11,250
NJ 1677 37,881 16,770 41,925
NY 3260 73,639 32,600 81,500
ND 132 2,982 1,320 3,300
OK 689 15,564 6,890 17,225
TN 1438 32,483 14,380 35,950
UT 898 20,285 8,980 22,450
</pre>

[LilGator]

Here's about what you're looking for. Sorted by highest predicted % to lowest.

'Delg' is the number of delegates available.

'DelgWon' is the number of delegates we'd take at that percentage, but this is proportional, not winner take all as I don't know which states are/arent'.

'PrdVot' is the predicted voters using the 25:1 ratio for primaries and 10:1 ratio for caucuses.

'2000' is the voter turnout in the 2000 primary.

'%Pred' is the predicted percentage we would pull based on a 10% increase in voter turnout (though I think that number is off, as the NH primary was dead on exact with 2000 turnout, Iowa was 37.4% higher than 2000, and Michigan turnout was only 68% of that it was in 2000- yielding a 23.5% decrease total so far, but we don't have a large enough sampling yet).

Here is the source of turnout numbers for the 2000 primary, let me know if there are any typo's: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presprim.htm
I don't have numbers for some of the caucuses at the top, so if anyone has any, let me know!



State Delg DelgWon Donors PrdVot 2000 %Pred
HI 20 N/A 348 3,480 N/A
KS 39 N/A 610 6,100 N/A
NV 34 N/A 1,055 10,550 N/A
WY 14 N/A 181 1,810 N/A
DC 19 19 174 4,350 2,433 162.54%
MN 41 41 1,212 30,300 18,401 149.70%
AK 29 21 349 3,490 4,330 73.27%
ND 26 9 132 3,300 9,066 33.09%
AR 34 8 448 11,200 44,573 22.84%
UT 36 8 898 22,450 91,053 22.41%
CO 46 9 1,606 40,150 180,655 20.20%
NJ 52 8 1,677 41,925 240,810 15.83%
LA 47 7 694 17,350 102,912 15.33%
AZ 53 8 2,152 53,800 322,669 15.16%
KY 45 7 607 15,175 91,323 15.11%
NM 32 5 489 12,225 75,230 14.77%
FL 57 8 4,447 111,175 699,317 14.45%
TX 140 19 6,591 164,775 1.13m 13.29%
TN 55 7 1,438 35,950 250,791 13.03%
NC 69 9 1,827 45,675 322,517 12.87%
OK 41 5 689 17,225 124,809 12.55%
RI 20 2 177 4,425 36,120 11.14%
WA 40 4 2,356 58,900 491,148 10.90%
DE 18 2 129 3,225 30,060 9.75%
PA 74 7 2,675 66,875 643,085 9.45%
CT 30 3 742 18,550 178,985 9.42%
MT 25 2 450 11,250 113,671 9.00%
AL 48 4 788 19,700 203,077 8.82%
OR 30 2 1,280 32,000 349,831 8.32%
ID 32 3 552 13,800 158,446 7.92%
MD 37 3 1,304 32,600 376,034 7.88%
CA 173 13 9,404 235,100 2.85m 7.50%
IL 70 5 2,417 60,425 736,857 7.45%
VA 63 5 2,168 54,200 664,093 7.42%
IA 40 3 683 6,830 86,359 7.19%
IN 57 4 1,230 30,750 406,664 6.87%
NH 12 1 703 17,575 238,206 6.71%
GA 72 5 1,873 46,825 643,188 6.62%
MS 39 3 332 8,300 114,979 6.56%
SD 27 2 122 3,050 45,279 6.12%
MO 58 4 1,278 31,950 475,363 6.11%
MA 43 2 1,228 30,700 501,951 5.56%
WI 40 2 1,019 25,475 495,769 4.67%
WV 30 1 213 5,325 109,404 4.42%
VT 17 1 156 3,900 81,355 4.36%
NE 33 1 336 8,400 185,758 4.11%
MI 30 1 2,141 53,525 1.28m 3.81%
SC 24 1 882 22,050 573,101 3.50%
NY 101 3 3,260 81,500 2.16m 3.43%
OH 88 3 2,032 50,800 1.40m 3.30%
ME 21 1 297 2,970 96,624 2.79%


Our average percentage is 8.72%, estimated support being at 1.69 million Ron Paul voters. However, we're only picking up roughly 300 delegates.

We'd need around a 125:1 primary ratio, and a 50:1 caucus ratio (voters to donors) to pull a majority of the delegates.

[ryvin1]

Here's about what you're looking for. Sorted by highest predicted % to lowest.

'Delg' is the number of delegates available.

'DelgWon' is the number of delegates we'd take at that percentage, but this is proportional, not winner take all as I don't know which states are/arent'.

'PrdVot' is the predicted voters using the 25:1 ratio for primaries and 10:1 ratio for caucuses.

'2000' is the voter turnout in the 2000 primary.

'%Pred' is the predicted percentage we would pull based on a 10% increase in voter turnout (though I think that number is off, as the NH primary was dead on exact with 2000 turnout, Iowa was 37.4% higher than 2000, and Michigan turnout was only 68% of that it was in 2000- yielding a 23.5% decrease total so far, but we don't have a large enough sampling yet).

I don't have numbers for some of the caucuses at the top, so if anyone has any, let me know!



State Delg DelgWon Donors PrdVot 2000 %Pred
HI 20 N/A 348 3,480 N/A
KS 39 N/A 610 6,100 N/A
NV 34 N/A 1,055 10,550 N/A
WY 14 N/A 181 1,810 N/A
DC 19 19 174 4,350 2,433 162.54%
MN 41 41 1,212 30,300 18,401 149.70%
AK 29 21 349 3,490 4,330 73.27%
ND 26 9 132 3,300 9,066 33.09%
AR 34 8 448 11,200 44,573 22.84%
UT 36 8 898 22,450 91,053 22.41%
CO 46 9 1,606 40,150 180,655 20.20%
NJ 52 8 1,677 41,925 240,810 15.83%
LA 47 7 694 17,350 102,912 15.33%
AZ 53 8 2,152 53,800 322,669 15.16%
KY 45 7 607 15,175 91,323 15.11%
NM 32 5 489 12,225 75,230 14.77%
FL 57 8 4,447 111,175 699,317 14.45%
TX 140 19 6,591 164,775 1.13m 13.29%
TN 55 7 1,438 35,950 250,791 13.03%
NC 69 9 1,827 45,675 322,517 12.87%
OK 41 5 689 17,225 124,809 12.55%
RI 20 2 177 4,425 36,120 11.14%
WA 40 4 2,356 58,900 491,148 10.90%
DE 18 2 129 3,225 30,060 9.75%
PA 74 7 2,675 66,875 643,085 9.45%
CT 30 3 742 18,550 178,985 9.42%
MT 25 2 450 11,250 113,671 9.00%
AL 48 4 788 19,700 203,077 8.82%
OR 30 2 1,280 32,000 349,831 8.32%
ID 32 3 552 13,800 158,446 7.92%
MD 37 3 1,304 32,600 376,034 7.88%
CA 173 13 9,404 235,100 2.85m 7.50%
IL 70 5 2,417 60,425 736,857 7.45%
VA 63 5 2,168 54,200 664,093 7.42%
IA 40 3 683 6,830 86,359 7.19%
IN 57 4 1,230 30,750 406,664 6.87%
NH 12 1 703 17,575 238,206 6.71%
GA 72 5 1,873 46,825 643,188 6.62%
MS 39 3 332 8,300 114,979 6.56%
SD 27 2 122 3,050 45,279 6.12%
MO 58 4 1,278 31,950 475,363 6.11%
MA 43 2 1,228 30,700 501,951 5.56%
WI 40 2 1,019 25,475 495,769 4.67%
WV 30 1 213 5,325 109,404 4.42%
VT 17 1 156 3,900 81,355 4.36%
NE 33 1 336 8,400 185,758 4.11%
MI 30 1 2,141 53,525 1.28m 3.81%
SC 24 1 882 22,050 573,101 3.50%
NY 101 3 3,260 81,500 2.16m 3.43%
OH 88 3 2,032 50,800 1.40m 3.30%
ME 21 1 297 2,970 96,624 2.79%


Our average percentage is 8.72%, estimated support being at 1.69 million Ron Paul voters. However, we're only picking up roughly 300 delegates.

We'd need around a 125:1 primary ratio, and a 50:1 caucus ratio (voters to donors) to pull a majority of the delegates.


NICE!!! wonder what vote to donor ratio is for the other candidates so far, and if they don't have as many donors how in the hell are they getting the votes?

[Voluntaryist]

delete my reply here.

[Eponym_mi]

Michigan turnout was only 68% of that it was in 2000- yielding a 23.5% decrease total so far, but we don't have a large enough sampling yet).

The 1.2M turnout you cited for Michigan in 2000 is TOTAL turnout. What we really need is the total vote count on the Republican side. For Michigan, I'd assume there was equal interest in both primaries and showed the Republican turnout as about 600K.

[Xenophage]

Can you list the source for this information, and format it better please?
EDIT: nevermind i see someone already did

[Xenophage]

How are you figuring the "delegates picked up" part? Its showing us at 1 delegate in NH, when we actually didn't get any, and the actual vote showed a higher percentage than the predicted vote you have.

[LilGator]

The 1.2M turnout you cited for Michigan in 2000 is TOTAL turnout. What we really need is the total vote count on the Republican side. For Michigan, I'd assume there was equal interest in both primaries and showed the Republican turnout as about 600K.

That is incorrect, the turnout for Republicans in 2000 in Michigan was 1.2M.

[LilGator]

How are you figuring the "delegates picked up" part? Its showing us at 1 delegate in NH, when we actually didn't get any, and the actual vote showed a higher percentage than the predicted vote you have.

'DelgWon' is the number of delegates we'd take at that percentage, but this is proportional, not winner take all as I don't know which states are/arent'.

No actual voting data is included here, this is solely based on voter to donor ratio, and the 2000 primary turnout + 10% as requested.