New Battleground poll

[Bradley in DC]

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/07/new_gwu_battleground_poll.html

this is probably the best poll out there (and I'm not saying that just because I worked for the Tarrance Group in the '96 election).

This one does not include Dr. Paul yet. :(

[Bradley in DC]

More info here
http://www.tarrance.com/battleground.html

and Republican analysis here
http://www.tarrance.com/11363-GOP-strategic-analysis.pdf

Perhaps the most shocking result of the Battleground survey is revealed in its first
question. Seventy-percent (70%) of voters across the nation are now convinced that the
country is off on the wrong track – and 58% of them feel strongly about it. This is
certainly the lowest score recorded in the history of the Battleground survey. Democrats
are universally agreed about this point, but so are 71% of Independents and 49% of
Republicans.

The reasons for this are revealed in what voters report as their biggest concerns in open- ended questioning. The American electorate remains singularly focused on the War in Iraq, which was reflected in the survey six months ago.

Nearly a third of voters are concerned about either the War in Iraq (23%) or terrorism and national defense (6%). The issue is largest among those who reside in a presidential battleground congressional district from 2004, as well as among young people, minorities, Democrats and Catholics. But even among Republicans, this is the second most important issue (just behind immigration). . .

Early in the survey, respondents were given an opportunity to review a few statements about elected officials in general. A 55% majority disagree with the statement that “most elected officials are basically trustworthy.” Young people, African Americans and conservative Democrats are among those who are most likely to disagree. . .

The President’s ratings are tied closely with the public’s view of the War in Iraq.
President Bush’s job approval has dropped to 36% approval and 61% disapproval. It is important to remember, particularly through the primary season, that 68% of Republicans still approve of the President’s performance in office.

Among Democrats, of course, 91% disapprove of Bush’s performance in office. Most
importantly, when we get to the general election next year, 66% of Independents
disapprove of Bush’s performance and only 26% approve. This is likely to impact how
even Republican candidates refer to the President when it comes to the general election. . .

Looking back to the January survey questions of issue handling, Republicans have
dropped in comparison to Democrats only on the Iraq War. On handling Iraq, 37%
believe the Republican Party can do a better job and 52% believe the Democrats can do a better job. Republicans fell back an additional 7-point in comparison to the last survey.

[Bradley in DC]

PDF of poll

http://www.tarrance.com/11363-Battleground-Poll-2008.pdf