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View Full Version : Any info on number of NV donors?

Razmear
01-16-2008, 11:43 AM
RonPaulGraphs shows 422 donors per million, but they miss a lot of them.
Is there any solid number of Ron Paul donors in Nevada?

eb

fez2008
01-16-2008, 12:12 PM
RonPaulGraphs shows 422 donors per million, but they miss a lot of them.
Is there any solid number of Ron Paul donors in Nevada?

eb

This is informative but based on 3rd quarter numbers:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/politics/voterguide/clarkcountyzip/

itsnobody
01-16-2008, 12:15 PM

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors_state_count.html

da32130
01-16-2008, 12:19 PM

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors_state_count.html

But they only captured half. So that should be 2108. If only donors vote we would get at least 5% in the state

AlexMerced
01-16-2008, 12:19 PM
with 10:1 voter/donor ratio which seems to be typically the case we got this in the bag

mosquitobite
01-16-2008, 12:21 PM
State: donors/voters

Iowa: 683/11817 = 5.78%
NH: 703/18303 = 3.84%
WY: ?
Michigan: 2139/54434 = 3.93%

itsnobody
01-16-2008, 12:22 PM
But they only captured half. So that should be 2108. If only donors vote we would get at least 5% in the state

Well considering that we only need 10,000 votes to win in NV, 2108 donors is looking pretty damn good

itsnobody
01-16-2008, 12:25 PM
State: donors/voters

Iowa: 683/11817 = 5.78%
NH: 703/18303 = 3.84%
WY: ?
Michigan: 2139/54434 = 3.93%

From that math, let's assume:

1054 = 6% of voters....

That means we'll get 17,567 votes

da32130
01-16-2008, 12:25 PM
State: donors/voters

Iowa: 683/11817 = 5.78%
NH: 703/18303 = 3.84%
WY: ?
Michigan: 2139/54434 = 3.93%

Remember:
Iowa: open caucus
NH: semi open primary
Michigan: open primary
NV: closed caucus

So the format for NV is the most limiting as far as total votes.

However, the other candidates aren't(besides Romney) putting their focus on the state so their turnout could suffer more than ours.

AlexMerced
01-16-2008, 01:32 PM
Remember:
Iowa: open caucus
NH: semi open primary
Michigan: open primary
NV: closed caucus

So the format for NV is the most limiting as far as total votes.

However, the other candidates aren't(besides Romney) putting their focus on the state so their turnout could suffer more than ours.

benefits of the closed caucus

- easier to organize cause you know who is voting

- not having to worry about Romney bussing thousands of unregistered voters to the polls

- Turnout is something you can acutally estimate ahead of time

- we've been operating in Nevada longer than romney, and double the size of romneys team, his 15 to our 30+ staff

Mental Dribble
01-16-2008, 03:49 PM
State: donors/voters

Iowa: 683/11817 = 5.78%
NH: 703/18303 = 3.84%
WY: ?
Michigan: 2139/54434 = 3.93%

These numbers give us a 1 to 17-25 donation to voter ratio...

if we dropped that down to just a 1:15 that gives us 15810 votes
drop it even further to 1:10 gives us 10540

and the campaign thinks 10k will win it??????????

Young_Apprentice
01-16-2008, 03:51 PM
These numbers give us a 1 to 17-25 donation to voter ratio...

if we dropped that down to just a 1:15 that gives us 15810 votes
drop it even further to 1:10 gives us 10540

and the campaign thinks 10k will win it??????????

They're only expecting ~30,000 to show up altogether.

fez2008
01-16-2008, 04:03 PM
These numbers give us a 1 to 17-25 donation to voter ratio...

if we dropped that down to just a 1:15 that gives us 15810 votes
drop it even further to 1:10 gives us 10540

and the campaign thinks 10k will win it??????????

40% will win it, anything less is not a sure win. The vote will not be split among 4-5 people like other places, I think 1st and 2nd place together will take 80-90% of the vote leaving the rest in single digits. Lack of organization can be damaging in a caucus.

So if turnout is 40k, 16k votes are required. The votes are there (atleast 15k of them). It all depends on how many will come out and vote.

UziSprayTF
01-16-2008, 04:41 PM
damnit you guys, stop getting my hopes up. Are you SURE those numbers are right? cuz I will be f'n happy with 15% of the vote, let alone 35%!

amistybleu
01-16-2008, 06:05 PM
Well considering that we only need 10,000 votes to win in NV, 2108 donors is looking pretty damn good

The Campaign need to contact these donors and remind them to go to Caucus.

dblee
01-16-2008, 06:06 PM
i'm sorry guys but the donor ratio theory is totally unscientific.

there are way too many factors at play, not the least of which is the overall disposition of the nevada caucus goer.

every state is a totally different landscape

JustBcuz
01-16-2008, 06:14 PM
The Campaign need to contact these donors and remind them to go to Caucus.

Dr. Paul called me today (recorded msg.) to remind me about the caucus.

I also received a mailer yesterday, and then another one today. :)
1st one was nat'l defense, today's was immigration.