Ron Paul polling 9% in Nevada

[itsnobody]

Romney - 29%
McCain - 21%
Thompson - 13%
Giuliani - 11%
Paul - 9%
Huckabee - 8%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_republican_caucus-235.html#polls

Nevada is a state where we can win. Ron Paul's fiscally conservative libertarian ideals fit in well in Nevada

We need a win to propel us into winning the nomination

[AlexMerced]

in less than a month we've gone 1% -> 6% -> 9%

that's super fast growth

[kushaze]

Huckabee and Giuliani's numbers are trending down. Thats good to hear.

[rollingpig]

up up up

[Maltheus]

We're losing to Giuliani and Thompson, in freakin' Nevada? Well, that just sucks!

[mavtek]

We need grassroots effort in Nevada like crazy! Canvass Canvass Canvass.

[Ex Post Facto]

I don't trust the polls anymore they lie.

[AgentPaul001]

Romney is obviously going to be our biggest competition in the state with the Mormon presence and his spending in the state.

[Give me liberty]

I don't trust the polls anymore they lie.

yup same here, if you trust the polls, you trust the MSM.

[yongrel]

I don't trust the polls anymore they lie.

We need to stop saying this. The polls have been accurate thusfar in the primaries.

[itsnobody]

I don't trust the polls anymore they lie.

The polls have proven to be highly accurate

They said Ron Paul 5th in Iowa and NH and Ron Paul 4th in MI...that's exactly what happened

For people who insist the polls have been rigged, then do your own polls, call up 1,000 random likely Republican voters and ask them who they're voting for

[rooteroa]

I don't trust the polls anymore they lie.

Yeah, that RCP average of 5.8 for Paul in Michigan was way off :rolleyes:

Oh and NH and Iowa too :rolleyes:

[BLS]

9% is good...and the growth is fantastic.

What we need is a 2nd place finish.
Something that says "Ron is a legitimate candidate".

Of course, a Win would be HUGE.

[itsnobody]

We need some type of plan to win Nevada

But how?

[Paulitician]

I only partially trust the polls. I think they're correct when they say Ron Paul has low support, and that everything needs to be done to get the word out, but most importantly, "get the votes out" as it were.

[paulitics]

pattern: 1 to 2 weeks before the primary, the polls begin to accurately reflect the support of between 7 and 12% for the state.

[tnvoter]

Giuliani has received the most money from gambling company's, we'll still beat him.

[acroso]

WOW....
PauL NEEDS a third place finish for Christ's sake....I read many S.C. voters liked him a lot but thought he didn't havea chance at winning so were supporting someone else.

[AlexMerced]

the difference in NV it that it's a closed caucus with very little media attention, so low tunrout, we would of done a lot better than the polls in the other states with a normal turnout

[OKRonPaul]

honestly a third in one of the next couple caucuses/primaries would feel like real progress to me. If we can continue to top fred & rudy, but beat one of the top three someplace it will make me quite happy. NV looks like our best chance so far, huck isn't that far ahead of us.

edit:i'm an idiot and assumed that was huck in front of us. I still think a 3rd would be progress. anything better is a big deal.

[Paulitician]

the difference in NV it that it's a closed caucus with very little media attention, so low tunrout, we would of done a lot better than the polls in the other states with a normal turnout
I hope that is the case. Of course, arguments like these have been made for previous caucuses/primaries--I've made them myself--there is no reason it should happen this time. We (and by we I mean supporters in Nevada) have to make it happen.

[terlinguatx]

...

[Joel High]

Hopefully we do well in Nevada, which will be reporting much earlier in SC. A top two or top three finish could motivate some of those "I like him but..." people to vote for the good doctor.

[RonRules]

This is a tracking poll, in other words a moving average. The actual number for today is probably more like 11%. Certainly Giuliani is not 11% in Nevada!

Look at the ascension of Ron Paul and the decrease for Guiliani. Just beautiful.

[terlinguatx]

...

[Maltheus]

Certainly Giuliani is not 11% in Nevada!

Wasn't he mayor or something of that New York, NY casino? Fucker stole my chips!

[Sey.Naci]

honestly a third in one of the next couple caucuses/primaries would feel like real progress to me. If we can continue to top fred & rudy, but beat one of the top three someplace it will make me quite happy. NV looks like our best chance so far, huck isn't that far ahead of us.

edit:i'm an idiot and assumed that was huck in front of us. I still think a 3rd would be progress. anything better is a big deal.1+

[skgai]

Here's the deal. Nobody's ever been to a Nevada Caucus. And who's going to wake up at 9 A.M. on a Saturday to go to a political event? Supporters. That's who will show up. I believed in the polls thus far, but I don't think that they can be as accurate in Nevada (that's why you're not seeing very many of them). We have the best grassroot campaign there and Ron Paul has visited the state more than any others. We just have to keep canvasing and letting people understand the message while at the same time not them use "electabilty" as a decision-making standar.

[AlexMerced]

yeah the poll numbers are bases on those who've voted in previous Nevada PRIMARIES, this is a caucus, meaning previous organization is key to winning, we got double the amoung of people working nevada than romney

though romney can fuck it up by doing another MI and saturating the TV's last minute

[reaver]

We're losing to Giuliani and Thompson, in freakin' Nevada? Well, that just sucks!

Giuliani usually drops 3-6% in the last two days.

[TonySutton]

Last minute ads do not help much in Caucuses. The key is getting the identified supporters to the Caucus so they can vote for RP.

Good Luck Nevada, you have put in a ton of effort. Sprint hard through to the finish!

[dcdreamboat]

And for crying out loud, back up the phone number information on your hard drives this time!!!!!

[TexMac]

[Sorry, quoted wrong post]

Actual number is 9:


ARG Nevada GOP Caucus (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nvrep8-704.html)
Mitt Romney 28% (29%)
John McCain 21% (7%)
Fred Thompson 13% (5%)
Rudy Giuliani 11% (17%)
Ron Paul 9% (3%)
Mike Huckabee 8% (23%)Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Nevada (562 Republicans and 38 non-partisan (independent) voters). Sample Dates: January 9-14, 2008. Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points.

[homah]

You'd think Paul would kill in a place like Nevada. I think the Caucus format helps him there too. When they give speeches the Paul spokesman should emphasize that he wants to eliminate taxation on tips. I don't see how that can't be good for a bunch of votes in Nevada.

[spudea]

Beating Rudy again is a win in my book. But if we can close the gap on Thompson and surpass him for a solid 3rd place, that would definetly reenergize the campaign!!

[SilentBull]

We need to stop saying this. The polls have been accurate thusfar in the primaries.

That's right. Only people that are first or second in the polls have won so far! So to be honest, I don't feel good about the fact that Ron Paul is in 5th place again in this poll. We are trying to come in first.

[MooCowzRock]

in less than a month we've gone 1% -> 6% -> 9%

that's super fast growth

Yeah, too many people see our 4-5th placings as failures, but they dont realize how much we've pulled a "no-chance" candidate into just barely almost front-runner status! We've done a great job so far, and are constantly improving!

[tfelice]

We've done a great job so far, and are constantly improving!

Look I know the public education system is in shambles, but you should know that10% in IA, 8% in NH, 6% in MI is not improving.

[MooCowzRock]

Look I know the public education system is in shambles, but you should know that10% in IA, 8% in NH, 6% in MI is not improving.

Look, I know that public education is in shambles, but looking at the order of the results in primaries and caucuses where different campaigns spent different amounts of money and effort and time, does is not a statistical accurate or logical method of guaging improvement. In each individual state, and in national polls, and in media coverage, and in support, we have improved drastically from where we were at 8 months ago, or even 1 month ago.

[tfelice]

Look, I know that public education is in shambles, but looking at the order of the results in primaries and caucuses where different campaigns spent different amounts of money and effort and time, does is not a statistical accurate or logical method of guaging improvement. In each individual state, and in national polls, and in media coverage, and in support, we have improved drastically from where we were at 8 months ago, or even 1 month ago.

Actually Paul has been flat since November, but that is beside the point.

There are 3 major contests between now and Super Tuesday (the other 3 will likely not be covered as seriously). Paul needs to win one and back it up with strong finishes in the others in order to be taken seriously on 2/5 when voters in 24 states will be going to the polls. There is nothing that suggests that Paul is going to do any better than he has done in the previous contests, other than the same hopes & dreams that we have all heard before.

Paul has been fortunate that there have been three different winners so far, and that 2 other candidates have strategies for upcoming states (SC & FL). But if the early primaries produce 4 or 5 winners and Paul is not one of them, and continues to register single digit support no one is going to be paying attention to Paul on 2/5 except his devotees.