A projection of moneybomb income

[diesirae]

I'm basing my projections on this thread: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=85456

Based on this, every 87-odd pledges should bring in, on average:

16 @ 25$ 400

13 @ 50$ 650

39 @ 100$ 3900

9 @ 200$ 1800

1 @ 300$ 300

9 @ 500$ 4500

For a sum of: 11,550$

So, based on this, (which is probably skewed high [I'm being optimistic :) ]), to date we raised approximately: $1,114,110

It's probably more like 4-5 hundred thousand, in reality, but if everyone commits to do their best we can have one of our best days :)

[AlexK]

$11,14,110

what?

[mokkan88]

So, based on this, (which is probably skewed high [I'm being optimistic :) ]), to date we raised approximately: $11,14,110

Oh f***! We broke the numbering system!

[smartguy911]

we really need to get the word out fast. we should have at least 30,000 people by Jan 20.

[coboman]

That is far too optimistic. The people on this forum are not representative of the average Ron Paul supporter.
On the teaparty a similar poll placed the average donation of a forum user around 700, with many people giving $23,000. The actual average was around 100.

A better predicting method is previous pledges vs actual donations. The teaparty brought 6 million with 35,000 pledges for $100.
So, there were 3.5 million pledged, 6 million donated.
The Nov 5th had a similar ratio, with 1.8 million pledged (18,000 pledges for $100), and 4.2 million donated.

MLK has around $85,000 pledged. My guess is $200,000 will be donated.

[Taco John]

I think we'll do a respectable $3.5 million.

[Iowa4Paul]

I think it has to with how well we do in MI.

A lot of people who I know are low on morale. If we can some Nice numbers, then it will boost their confidence.

[bbartlog]

MLK has around $85,000 pledged. My guess is $200,000 will be donated.

I'm as much of a hard-nosed realist as anyone, but this is way too pessimistic (I think you missed a decimal point). There are currently over 8000 pledges for FreeAtLast, and more are signing up at about 500 or so a day. We should have at least 10,000 pledges by Jan 21, which implies a moneybomb of $2 million or so. It won't break the record we set :-(, but it's not going to be a $200K fizzle either.

[jgmaynard]

Yeah, Bbart is right - Cobo missed a decimal point (or the donation/pledge ratio will be about $2). We're probably looking at $2M right now. A sweet, sweet showing in MI today would probably boost that up - hopefully those arab-language newspapers endorsements will help.

But, I'm one of those people who has never signed up for a MB, but has donated to all of them, so don't count us out just yet. :)

JM

[InLoveWithRon]

My prediction is $2.737 Million

.

[acroso]

...why can't we just use the email lists we already have from the previous money bomb days?

[Mental Dribble]

I think you guys are forgetting that most people are only expecting to donate 10... i mean that is what the money bomb says on the website..

[coboman]

There are currently over 8000 pledges for FreeAtLast, and more are signing up at about 500 or so a day. We should have at least 10,000 pledges by Jan 21, which implies a moneybomb of $2 million or so.


Cobo missed a decimal point (or the donation/pledge ratio will be about $2). We're probably looking at $2M right now.

There are 8,533 pledges right now, and they have been stuck around that number for several days.
I don't think we will reach 10,000. But even with that many pledges, these are for $10 (ten) dollars. That is $100,000 dollars pledged, and my prediction ($200,000) is doubling that amount.

The ones that missed the decimal point are the organizers, not me.

Assuming that people will magically donate $100 dollars, instead of the $10 (ten) dollars pledged, has no base in reality. It is just wishful thinking.

[fmontez]

I think it will be just over $1 mil, but it will be a double edged sword, the more that is raised the more the media will point out the hypocrisy of an accused racist raising money on MLK day.

[coboman]

I think it will be just over $1 mil, but it will be a double edged sword, the more that is raised the more the media will point out the hypocrisy of an accused racist raising money on MLK day.
The media is not paying much attention to Ron Paul anymore. This moneybomb is not for the MSM reports, is just to give the official campaign more money.

And your 1million estimation is based on 10,000 pledges for $100 (one hundred) dollars.

The current pledges are for $10 (ten) dollars. I think that the best idea would be to tell the organizers to inform everyone that pledged, that we are expecting the regular $100 donation. Otherwise people are going to donate the ten dollars pledged, and that will be it.

[diesirae]

So far today, we're up to $1,127,925 by my optimistic calculations.

If everyone pulls through with their pledges, we're taking in a minimum of $85,330

I'm getting a little worried; even optimistically, we're way, way short of what the previous ones were. :(

[fmontez]

The media is not paying much attention to Ron Paul anymore. This moneybomb is not for the MSM reports, is just to give the official campaign more money.

And your 1million estimation is based on 10,000 pledges for $100 (one hundred) dollars.

The current pledges are for $10 (ten) dollars. I think that the best idea would be to tell the organizers to inform everyone that pledged, that we are expecting the regular $100 donation. Otherwise people are going to donate the ten dollars pledged, and that will be it.

I just can't see RP raising less than 1 million.. I know it's a $10 pledge, but I am assuming it will be closer to $100-120 average donation....

[RSLudlum]

start getting the word out FURIOUSLY,,,,,make some signs with MLK Jr. and the url.

[RonPaulNYC]

I have never donated one dollar to a politian in my life. Even though I am 31 years old. I have never followed politics either.

And I plan on donating $100 on MLK day. Espec, after watching how everyone of the canidates went after Dr. Paul, and how he great he responded, to their ridiculous attacks.

I am finally proud to be voting.

[coboman]

I just can't see RP raising less than 1 million.. I know it's a $10 pledge, but I am assuming it will be closer to $100-120 average donation....
These are the Best Days so far
date total
2007-12-16 -------$6,043,022.96
2007-11-05 -------$3,994,713.65
2007-11-30 -------$531,438.82
2007-11-06 -------$389,344.46
2007-12-31 -------$387,954.10


Only two days have brought more than 1 million. Nov 5 and the teaparty.

Other moneybombs like Rudy's reading list, that had some 6,000 pledges brought $531,000.
The last moneybomb, the newyears eve, we had to bring around $800,000 to reach 20 million.
We brought in less than $400,000.

I don't know where you guys get those numbers of more than 1 million dollars.
I just can't see how we can get more than $300,000.

[diesirae]

These are the Best Days so far
date total donations
1 2007-12-16 $6,043,022.96 59,170
2 2007-11-05 $3,994,713.65 38,905
3 2007-11-30 $531,438.82 6,780
4 2007-11-06 $389,344.46 4,820
5 2007-12-31 $387,954.10 4,829


Only two days have brought more than 1 million. Nov 5 and the teaparty.

Other moneybombs like Rudy's reading list, that had some 6,000 pledges brought $531,000.
The last moneybomb, the newyears eve, we had to bring around $800,000 to reach 20 million.
We brought in less than $400,000.

I don't know where you guys get those numbers of more than 1 million dollars.
I just can't see how we can get more than $300,000.

Yeah, we're about 4-5000 people short of a million

[RonPaulNYC]

Maybe my post wasn't as clear as I meant it to be. I have in the past few months, spoken and converted lots of people onto Dr. Paul.

I am hoping that like me, there are now more people and more of vigor into this money bomb.
I've heard before, once a person is turned onto him, he dosen't go back. Maybe there will be new people, like myself. I hope....

[fmontez]

These are the Best Days so far
date total
2007-12-16 -------$6,043,022.96
2007-11-05 -------$3,994,713.65
2007-11-30 -------$531,438.82
2007-11-06 -------$389,344.46
2007-12-31 -------$387,954.10


Only two days have brought more than 1 million. Nov 5 and the teaparty.

Other moneybombs like Rudy's reading list, that had some 6,000 pledges brought $531,000.
The last moneybomb, the newyears eve, we had to bring around $800,000 to reach 20 million.
We brought in less than $400,000.

I don't know where you guys get those numbers of more than 1 million dollars.
I just can't see how we can get more than $300,000.

I think MLK will be another big moneybomb (over 1 mil), here is why.. asking for donations more than once a month just doens't work.. so Jan's big Moneybomb will be the MLK day one. I predict we will have one big one in Feb, one in March, etc... and of course a bunch of little flacky moneybombs every month.

[coboman]

I am hoping that like me, there are now more people and more of vigor into this money bomb.
Then, where are the pledges?

I don't want to sound pessimistic, or undermine your enthusiasm, but I think we are being naive.

The Benjamin's moneybomb was supposed to bring in 23 million. Then it was brought down to 7 million.
As for now, it has 514 pledges, and the odds are that it won't bring one cent.

Original Goal: ---- $23 MILLION!!
Revised Goal: ---- $7 million
Actual: ----------- $0.00

This MLK bomb is having a similar fate. People just assume that other will donate out of nowhere. Than the pledges for $10, are in reality pledges for $100, and that the 8,500 pledges, are really more than 20,000.

[smtwngrl]

MLK has around $85,000 pledged. My guess is $200,000 will be donated.

I'm as much of a hard-nosed realist as anyone, but this is way too pessimistic (I think you missed a decimal point). There are currently over 8000 pledges for FreeAtLast, and more are signing up at about 500 or so a day. We should have at least 10,000 pledges by Jan 21, which implies a moneybomb of $2 million or so. It won't break the record we set :-(, but it's not going to be a $200K fizzle either.

$2 million is assuming that:
1. There are 10,000 pledges
2. Twice as many people donate as had pledged
3. The average donation is $100

The first two assumptions have some plausibility. But, frankly, I don't like the $10 idea. For the other moneybombs it was $100, and the average donation was $100. If it had been $10, the Tea Party would have only raised $600,000 instead of $6 million.

And all of this trying to get people to donate by telling them they only need to donate $10 is likely to backfire. Yes, I know a certain % of those who donate will donate more than that. But a certain % are also going to donate $10.

As far as I'm concerned, this money bomb is no different from the others. In other words, it's no less worthy of my donation, and it's worth donating as much as before. I would like to see it bring in as much as the Tea Party, but I don't see the same enthusiasm there.

I'm afraid if it fizzles, that is going to be a sign to Ron Paul (and to the press) that we have thrown in the towel. :(

[jlizgar]

Hey guys, its my first post..yeah! Excited to be here with all you Paul supporters :)
Just wanted to say that I have given at least 25 bucks to every money bomb and never signed up on any of the websites. I gave 50 for the tea party. SO, I dont think you should base your predictions on the number of people pledged on the website...I think lots still give, like me! I plan to give 50 for MLK...maybe 100 if I can afford it. I have a feeling we will break 1 mil. maybe not much more but it most likely will be at least a million!
Stay positive! Great things are happening for Ron Paul right now...slowly but surely he is gaining ground and we need to keep our spirits up and keep working hard to spread his name and message all across America!

Liz :)

[Nicketas]

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[Nicketas]

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[ClayTrainor]

We can.

Call trevor and tell him to import them to this new list.

he hasnt done this already ?!?!?!?!?!?!

[steve005]

come on guys, this will get way more than 6 million, ten maybe

[Kenz]

I am what could be described as the consummate lurker. I read the internet incessantly, but post infrequently. I've donated $700 to the campaign, but I have yet to make a pledge.

That said, in the last 12 hours the freeatlast2008.com page hits have gone from 34,000 to 58,000 and the pledges have gone up by about 400. This gives me a modicum of faith that there are many out there like me.

I have been focusing on influencing my friends, family, and co-workers to hear the message of Ron Paul. So far I would say I've swayed at least 10 people to our cause(of those 10, 4 donated to the tea party), and opened the eyes of many more. Dr. Paul's message of constitutionally protected liberty, non-intervention foreign policy, reduced government largess, and sound money REALLY resonate with the underinformed. A burnt CD with a few youtube vidoes can be a real eyeopener for the sleepy masses.
Since the TNR farce the level of in-fighting amongst Dr. Paul's supporters has grown to an unhealthy level. Why? Sure the campaign hasn't been run perfectly. The MSM pulls off the peoples blinders long enough to say "$20 Million...racist...no chance...dark horse" Which of these are positive? IT'S THE AMOUNT OF MONEY WE RAISE THAT GENERATE THE POSITIVE HEADLINES! Positive headlines are what bring the uniformed to search out and understand Dr. Paul's platform. There is no 30 second commercial that can accurately convey the message(maybe we should get the micro machines guy..haha).

Everyone, PLEASE, remember that this is only the beginning. I would love nothing more than to see Ron Paul sworn in Jan. of 2009. But if that doesn't happen are we going to fracture? I HOPE NOT!! The Revolution Will Not Be Televised!

A favorite quote from a Show-Me State Hero sums it up perfectly:


In the beginning of a change the patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot. Mark Twain 1904.

It our duty to this country to allow the timid to join us! We need to double our efforts on a personal and national level. Personal: tell everyone you know how important this is for our future. National: donate as much as you possibly can on January 21st.

Help Restore The American Way! RON PAUL 2008! :D

[rbod]

We really need a good showing on the 21st to revive the momentum.

[gracebkr]

I think we'll do a respectable $3.5 million.

I think it is great you think this, but the question is why do you think this?

[gracebkr]

$2 million is assuming that:
1. There are 10,000 pledges
2. Twice as many people donate as had pledged
3. The average donation is $100

The first two assumptions have some plausibility. But, frankly, I don't like the $10 idea. For the other moneybombs it was $100, and the average donation was $100. If it had been $10, the Tea Party would have only raised $600,000 instead of $6 million.

And all of this trying to get people to donate by telling them they only need to donate $10 is likely to backfire. Yes, I know a certain % of those who donate will donate more than that. But a certain % are also going to donate $10.

As far as I'm concerned, this money bomb is no different from the others. In other words, it's no less worthy of my donation, and it's worth donating as much as before. I would like to see it bring in as much as the Tea Party, but I don't see the same enthusiasm there.

I'm afraid if it fizzles, that is going to be a sign to Ron Paul (and to the press) that we have thrown in the towel. :(

I think the average supporter of Ron Paul KNOWS to donate about 100 bucks, but the first timers might do 10 bucks and the enthusiastic first timers might do more.

[RonPaulFTFW]

I think people will respond to the MLK message.

We're sick of being called racist and being ignored. It will resonate and we do have a lot of new people involved nevermind what the negative nancies might say.

We'll do well. It won't be the tea party, but we'll do well.

[The Tao Of Bill]

I can tell you I will not be giving money this time around. I just am not seeing any bang for my dollar. I've given over 200 dollars to the campaign. We gave them record numbers and they gave us an amature campaign.

I really want to start focusing on donating to campaigns for new strict constitutionalist congressmen to aid Ron Paul in congress but no one wants to listen to me and instead they still want to continue to throw all their eggs into the Ron Paul basket. Ron Paul did pretty well but you gotta face it. It's not going to happen. It just isn't. But we are throwing away an opportunity here by continuing to throw money at a failed campaign instead of pushing for other ways to move the movement forward. We're going to fraction the movement if we don't act in ways out side of a Ron Paul 2008 campaign.