I can't figure out the campaign strategy.

[LastoftheMohicans]

I can't figure out the campaign strategy. I can understand not wasting money trying to be competitive in all of the states between NH and Super Tuesday. But the campaign doesn't seem like they are trying to be competitive in any. Given that the Establishment is playing musical chairs with 4 to 5 interchangeable candidates, it doesn't make sense to wait until Super Tuesday for some to drop out. No matter which ones drop out, they are going to endorse the Establishment chosen frontrunner anyway. The only thing that I can figure is that the campaign is saving their money until Super Tuesday and focus on 2 or 3 states. Or in the case of the states that choose delegates by Congressional districts, maybe they will focus their money there. Either way I confused. After Super Tuesday around 40-50% of the delegates will have been chosed. Are they hoping to have a two many race for the remaining 50-60% of the delegates after the Establishment coalesces around one candidate?

[hueylong]

They're spending money in SC, MI & NV as well as radio ads in 8 super tuesday states.

They're spending Heavily in Nevada, with hopes of a breakthrough there.

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

Why haven't we seen a new ad lately???

Where is our economic ad? Where is our antiwar ad?

The grassroots needs to step up pressure on the HQ to produce some decent new ads that deal with Ron's main issues - the economy and the war. Our current ads are super generic GOP stuff.

[Paul10]

....

[garrettwombat]

the secret stratagy is to sign up as a precinct leader on the ron paul website

[Alabama Supporter]

I'm not sure I get it either. The hard thing right now is keeping your head up after 2 5th place finishes. I hope an upcoming state goes well.

[wfd40]

They're spending money in SC, MI & NV as well as radio ads in 8 super tuesday states.

They're spending Heavily in Nevada, with hopes of a breakthrough there.

we just polled at 6% in nevada... FUCKING Nevada!?

Are you kidding me?

[stevedasbach]

we just polled at 6% in nevada... FUCKING Nevada!?

Are you kidding me?

Polls are less important in Nevada. Most pollsters aren't polling Nevada because they have no idea how to project who will turnout. Estimates are only 20,000 to 30,000 will turnout on the Republican side, so GOTV is everything.

Paul has 14 staff members working in Nevada and is spending several days campaigning across the state. Romney has 5 but is spending all his time and money in Michigan. The other candidates aren't focusing on Nevada.

Paul has the potential to score an upset in Nevada. We'll find out Saturday.

[RPinSEAZ]

Anybody know what super tuesday states they're running ads in?

[WRellim]

I can't figure out the campaign strategy. I can understand not wasting money trying to be competitive in all of the states between NH and Super Tuesday. But the campaign doesn't seem like they are trying to be competitive in any. [...] After Super Tuesday around 40-50% of the delegates will have been chosen. Are they hoping to have a two man race for the remaining 50-60% of the delegates after the Establishment coalesces around one candidate?

Actually, last time I computed it, by the end of day on Super-Duper-Tuesday some 65% of the delegates will already be "bound" leaving a minor 35% still in play.

Starting to think that (provided the money hasn't been gambled away at the roulette tables in Vegas this week) the ONLY "stategy" that makes any logical sense (not that THAT term seems to have ever applied to current campaign staff leqadership) here is that they are hoping to show or "win" in one or two states on Feb 5th, and then announce a 3rd Party run shortly thereafter with whatever they have left for cash. Which I personally think would be a fairly large mistake (definitely a big gamble) and would be a pretty substantial betrayal of many supporters who have put solid time, energy and money into becoming involved with their local GOP.

This would also make sense of the fact that they haven't made ANY ATTEMPTS to prepare for or communicate with people in the states that come shortly after the 5th.

Otherwise, I'm as puzzled and befuddled about how there is any "strategy" here at all.

[WRellim]

we just polled at 6% in nevada... FUCKING Nevada!?

Are you kidding me?

Odd thought occurred to me the other day... The campaign staff seems to have an affinity for "warmer" states, and a distinct aversion to spending too much time in the colder climate states.

So Nevada makes sense there. As does California, etc. And the campaign office and staff trip(s?) to Hawaii as well.

And something tells me that with that as the equation, Maine is not likely to receive any candidate or staff visits (even though it's primary stands "alone" on Feb 1st).

[Kotin]

Actually, last time I computed it, by the end of day on

and then announce a 3rd Party run shortly thereafter with whatever they have left for cash.

Otherwise, I'm as puzzled and befuddled about how there is any "strategy" here at all.

ok thats not true..

[StateofTrance]

It's called - Silent Attack Mode

Our campaign will launch all its missiles to move from 4th to 7th position :D

Basically, we win (from bottom) ;)

[Kotin]

It's called - Silent Attack Mode

Our campaign will launch all its missiles to move from 4th to 7th position :D

Basically, we win (from bottom) ;)

you are on to something, this i believe.

[TonySutton]

First as some have stated the delegates are important and about 50% will be gone after Super Tuesday. The thing to remember is they will be split between several candidates. You can not assume some will drop and others will get their votes. As it goes, I only see Thompson dropping and maybe Giuliani dropping after Super Tuesday. This leaves a 4 way race between McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Ron Paul. Ron Paul will continue to gain momentum as his message starts making to the American people. Just like a snow ball rolling down a hill getting bigger as it goes. There comes a point where the polls can mandate where the delegates go because if Ron Paul is looking better in the polls come convention time, I guarantee the the GOP will make sure the Ron Paul gets the nod. The alternative is Ron Paul taking his backing independent and still being a contender because he can pull democratic voters who are against the war.

[StateofTrance]

ok thats not true..

Well, the truth is that campaign is going to buy a small island with 20 mil and give passports to all Paulites.

[anewvoice]

Hawaii? really?

I wouldn't say they've spent much here in MI, and it sounds the same in SC.

[TonySutton]

anewvoice - the latest MI polls showed a jump in RP support. You guys need to beat the bushes tomorrow and get out the vote. Show up early at your precinct with a big RP sign and be nice to everyone asking them to give RP a look. I think MI is going to open some eyes tomorrow!

[LastoftheMohicans]

First as some have stated the delegates are important and about 50% will be gone after Super Tuesday. The thing to remember is they will be split between several candidates. You can not assume some will drop and others will get their votes. As it goes, I only see Thompson dropping and maybe Giuliani dropping after Super Tuesday. This leaves a 4 way race between McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Ron Paul. Ron Paul will continue to gain momentum as his message starts making to the American people. Just like a snow ball rolling down a hill getting bigger as it goes. There comes a point where the polls can mandate where the delegates go because if Ron Paul is looking better in the polls come convention time, I guarantee the the GOP will make sure the Ron Paul gets the nod. The alternative is Ron Paul taking his backing independent and still being a contender because he can pull democratic voters who are against the war.

Tony,

I appreciate your analysis but I have to respectfully disagree. There are only two candidates in the GOP race. Ron Paul is one and Giuliani,Huckabee,McCain, Hunter, Thompson and Romney are the other. I don't mean that as a joke. The latter "group of one" has no signficant differences among them. Even if Ron Paul were to win 49% of the delegates and sweep the last 30-40%, the other 51%would coalesce around one of the others. There is no way the GOP would back Ron Paul if he as a plurality and not a majority of the delegates. The GOP leadership and much of the base is just as committed to big government as the Democrat leadership. They would rather have a Democrat, any Democrat, than Ron Paul. Obviously, if he gets some late momentum it will be more difficult for them to pull it off.