California Debate Qualifications - Is Ron Paul Out?

[Galt1776]

As of now, it appears that Ron Paul may not be able to qualify for the debate on January 30th in California even though he currently leads Fred Thompson in the latest CA poll. The qualifications are as follows (from the Politico):

"To receive an invitation for the Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times debates in California, a candidate must satisfy both of the following criteria:

The candidate must have finished in at least fourth place in a 2008 primary or caucus.

This will be measured by the percentage of votes received in primaries or the percentage of delegates awarded in caucuses.

Contests considered for the Republican debate will be the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, the Wyoming county conventions, and the New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Florida primaries.

The candidate must also have received at least 5 percent in the Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times poll.

Alternatively, the candidate can be considered for participation if he or she received at least 5 percent in one or more of 11 major national polls taken between Jan. 1 and Jan. 23, 2008."

So RP needs to finish in 4th in Nevada or one of the other remaining states to guarantee a spot in the debate since he already has above the 5% minimum LA Times poll standard. I believe RP is at 5% in at least 2 nat'l polls so that gives the Politico some room to invite him even if he doesn't finish 4th in the upcoming primaries.

[rooteroa]

We have to hope for a 4th place finish in Michigan.

[UtahApocalypse]

He can meet the qualifications with a higher place in coming elections. They might change the rules days before though.... thats happening now.

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

edit: oops, I thought he was 4th in Iowa.

[RonPaul_SantaMonica]

Edited because original quoted post was edited.

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

Well, look, if those are the rules, they seem fair enough to me. If RP cannot make the cut, we will have to live with it.

BTW, if Romney and Thompson both drop out as it seems they will, won't RP automatically come in 4th in Florida? :)

[Xonox]

That gives us plenty of chances... is the finish by delegates or popular vote? I heard RP was 2nd in popular vote in Wyoming, that could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he was 3rd in delegates in Iowa... And he's currently about 5% in National polls... they should invite him.

[Noleader]

It looks like they made the rules flexable so they can invite Paul and exclude Hunter.

[freelance]

IF you copied these word-for-word, there's a little problem.


The candidate must have finished in at least fourth place in a 2008 primary or caucus.

This will be measured by the percentage of votes received in primaries or the percentage of delegates awarded in caucuses.

The first sentence is primary (singular).

The second sentence is primaries (plural).

Which is it? So, if he finishes fourth place in a primary or caucus, then they can revert to the plural version, if this is actually how it's written.

Even if he finishes fourth, if someone drops out, we could still get the Kucinich treatment, where they change the rules before the debate.

My guess? He won't be included unless we can get a third-place spot somewhere.

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

If Romney and Thompson drop out, we got this in the bag:

1. McCain
2. Huckleberry
3. Rudy
4. Ron Paul.

[UtahApocalypse]

Anyone thinking Romney is going to drop out is insane.

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

Anyone thinking Romney is going to drop out is insane.

If he loses Michigan, how does he go on?

He already pulled all of his ads from SC and FL last week.

[Scott Wilson]

Thompson and Romney are not going to drop out. I don't know why people keep saying it.

Fred Thompson has a lot of support in the south and the conservative media mouthpieces love him.

I doubt you will see anyone drop out before Super Tuesday.

[rooteroa]

If he loses Michigan, how does he go on?

He already pulled all of his ads from SC and FL last week.

Uhh, he's currently leading in delegates... how does he not go on?

[literatim]

Technically Ron Paul was 4th in Iowa, Thompson and McCain tied for 3rd.

[mwkaufman]

There's no way Romney isn't in it through the 5th, Thompson can drop out whenever he wants.

[mwkaufman]

Technically Ron Paul was 4th in Iowa, Thompson and McCain tied for 3rd.

1. Huckabee (30)
2. Romney (7)
3. Thompson (3)
3. McCain (3)
5. Paul (2)

It's a 5th, I mean, it's ridiculous to have 4 people come in front of you and claim you got 4th.

[freelance]

Check this out:

Judge Grants Kucinich Entry to NV Debate

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8U5V0J80&show_article=1

You go, Dennis! THAT'S what happens when you stand up for what you believe in.

[SgtBulldog]

The candidate must have finished in at least fourth place in a 2008 primary or caucus.

This will be measured by the percentage of votes received in primaries or the percentage of delegates awarded in caucuses.

1. Romney 103,755 30%
2. McCain 102,361 29%
3. Huckabee 66,876 19%
4. Paul 29,648 9%
5. Giuliani 24,151 7%
6. Thompson 18,712 5%

[dreicher]

Has anyone e-mailed to see if he currently qualifies?

[ProBlue33]

The candidate must have finished in at least fourth place in a 2008 primary or caucus.

This will be measured by the percentage of votes received in primaries or the percentage of delegates awarded in caucuses.

1. Romney 103,755 30%
2. McCain 102,361 29%
3. Huckabee 66,876 19%
4. Paul 29,648 9%
5. Giuliani 24,151 7%
6. Thompson 18,712 5%

That just put a lot in perspective Mitt is number 1 in total votes he isn't dropping out, what is interesting too is how low Huckabee is in total votes, despite his win, and Ron Paul is beating Fred quite nicely.

[CareerTech1]

im 90% certain that Thompson will drop soon but think Romney is in this for the long haul. Romney brought in $5M on 1/9/08 alone and his #'s are strong.
Giuliani is running out of money and I would wager that he will drop long before Romney will even come close to dropping.

Ron Paul can win a 4th or 3rd place but yes he already came in 4th in Iowa.

I'm hoping for a miracle / turnaround - where people (like me) come to realize what is at stake here - that we have THE CANDIDATE in Ron Paul.

[itsnobody]

From the rules it looks like he DEFINITELY will be invited

[tfelice]

If Romney and Thompson drop out, we got this in the bag:

1. McCain
2. Huckleberry
3. Rudy
4. Ron Paul.

Theoretically they could change the rules if Paul's fourth was very distant. Say the top three were in the 30's and Paul was in low single digits they would exclude him, especially if he has low national numbers.

Think about it, if Paul was leading this thing and another candidate, say Rudy was just hanging in there for some reason pulling single digits along the way would he deserve to be in a debate with the top 3?

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

Knowing what happened to Fox, I seriously doubt they would change the rules after already posting them. RP supporters would burn their buildings down.

As for all of you who are saying Romney will stay in, hasn't he already staked everything on Michigan? I can't imagine him losing that state and going on. I don't know ... maybe. So he loses Michigan, then gets raped in SC and FL, and somehow thinks he will have momentum going into Super Tuesday? How is Mitt looking in Nevada?

[tfelice]

Research 2000 has him at 15% in 4th place, but he has led there as recently as December. Nevada has the fourth largest percentage of Mormons nationally 7.4% (1990 census), so that should help him. I think though if Romney doesn't do well in MI it may be over for him.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

As for all of you who are saying Romney will stay in, hasn't he already staked everything on Michigan? I can't imagine him losing that state and going on. I don't know ... maybe. So he loses Michigan, then gets raped in SC and FL, and somehow thinks he will have momentum going into Super Tuesday? How is Mitt looking in Nevada?

We'll know a lot more about this after the fundraising numbers come out. I do think Mitt is some kind of plastic clown, but he probably has some savvy business types around, and I don't think he wants to spend his entire fortune to not become president. I can imagine that some of his advisors are yelling "No Mitt, NO!!"

[AlexMerced]

I think we got a fair change of placing 4th tomrrow

[Dan D.]

Alternatively, the candidate can be considered for participation if he or she received at least 5 percent in one or more of 11 major national polls taken between Jan. 1 and Jan. 23, 2008."

Shouldn't be too hard.

[stevedasbach]

Alternatively, the candidate can be considered for participation if he or she received at least 5 percent in one or more of 11 major national polls taken between Jan. 1 and Jan. 23, 2008."

Shouldn't be too hard.

He's already received 5% in two major national polls this month.

Hopefully he will also finish 4th or better in Michigan and/or Nevada (not optimistic about 4th or better in South Carolina unless he does unexpectedly well in Michigan).

[ronpaulyourmom]

If he loses Michigan, how does he go on?

He already pulled all of his ads from SC and FL last week.


He has already stated that he will, without question, be in this until Feb 5th. He has stated this on record no more than two days ago.

[ronpaulyourmom]

im 90% certain that Thompson will drop soon but think Romney is in this for the long haul. Romney brought in $5M on 1/9/08 alone and his #'s are strong.
Giuliani is running out of money and I would wager that he will drop long before Romney will even come close to dropping.

Ron Paul can win a 4th or 3rd place but yes he already came in 4th in Iowa.

I'm hoping for a miracle / turnaround - where people (like me) come to realize what is at stake here - that we have THE CANDIDATE in Ron Paul.

Just so you know, of the 5 million, only 1.5 of it is usable in the primaries. The rest was his rich buddies pumping up the numbers with general election donations.

[AggieforPaul]

RealClearPolitics has him running 4th in Michigan. The only time they've been wrong so far was McCain-Thompson in Iowa, and that's because they were so close. RP has to squeak by in Michigan.

[Rede]

Looks like Ron's in.

[alexa doherty]

Paul got 4th in mich. So he qualifies for the Debate that MSM/CORPORATIONS/BIG GOVT/TV Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times(which was just bought out by a zionist) are having in California.

"I believe none of the polls"-john Lydon.

Also I want to personally say that huckabee has no support out here nor does mccain because they're both pro illegals lunatics.

So don't believe the MSM polls.

[stewie3128]

Ron Paul's satisfied the criteria on both counts. He's finished 4th in Michigan and has been at at-least 6% in several national polls I've seen.

[patriotic_dad]

He's in, according to the Reagan Library's website


https://www.reaganfoundation.org/pressrelease.asp?press_id=114

[stewie3128]

Wait - do these criteria mean that Rudy's out of the debate?

Edit - nm... he placed 4th in NH.

[Ethek]

Wait - do these criteria mean that Rudy's out of the debate?

Edit - nm... he placed 4th in NH.

hah, I think they'll make an exception

[polexi]

Excellent, he should be in!

[JonathanR]

So will they keep Thompson out if he continues his string of last place finishes?

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

Fred will probably drop out after SC anyway.