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Meiun
01-11-2008, 08:49 PM
So, I heard on the news when I got home from work that a couple of the Republican candidates are running on empty.

Guiliani has stopped all activity in SC and Mich, focusing everything on FL and has NOT PAID HIS STAFF, hehe....

Also, has Mitt reached an end to how much he is willing to spend?

Fred Thompson has never had money.

Huckabee has never had staff... so now he has a bit of money.

Could Ron Paul's strategy already be taking shape? Run the other campaign's dry and then blitz for the home run?

ArchPaul
01-11-2008, 08:52 PM
Its not a race, its a marathon. :D

Kludge
01-11-2008, 08:55 PM
The *race* ends on Super Tuesday. If we don't get the needed amount of delegates, we have no chance and Paul's better off funding a libertarian project. He'll be forgotten by November if he loses on Tuesday...

The Only Woj
01-11-2008, 08:58 PM
on MLK day I'll be donating ... bigtime. will at least match my 4th Q donations. keeping this campaign funded forever!

nate895
01-11-2008, 09:00 PM
The *race* ends on Super Tuesday. If we don't get the needed amount of delegates, we have no chance and Paul's better off funding a libertarian project. He'll be forgotten by November if he loses on Tuesday...

If this plays out correctly, the other campaigns will be out of cash by Super Tuesday, and apx. 1000 delegates are up, and if you get even half of them, you're the front runner, and I don't see how someone besides Paul can get the ad time when they're out of dough.

Feelgood
01-11-2008, 09:05 PM
So, I heard on the news when I got home from work that a couple of the Republican candidates are running on empty.

Guiliani has stopped all activity in SC and Mich, focusing everything on FL and has NOT PAID HIS STAFF, hehe....

Also, has Mitt reached an end to how much he is willing to spend?

Fred Thompson has never had money.

Huckabee has never had staff... so now he has a bit of money.

Could Ron Paul's strategy already be taking shape? Run the other campaign's dry and then blitz for the home run?

Fred = broke

Huckabee = almost broke, he has gotten a little money in his coffer after Iowa, but not much. Less then a million, but I dont know the exact number.

Guiliani has about 12 million to spend. Wont make it to super Tuesday on that. He is planning to spend alot here in my home state of Florida. Im going to post a suggestion to watch for wherever Rudy shows up, so RP supporters can be there to greet him. :D

Romney is financing his own campaign. He has plenty of wealth to go the distance, but who knows how much he is willing to squander of his own money, to get elected. He is running solely on his own money at the moment. He has pulled his advertising from SC and FL, last I heard. I have heard rumors that is he does not do well in SC, he may drop out.

McCain = broke, but may get a small boost from NH. If he wins SC he could get a bit of a money boost from that.

Ron Paul = loaded with plenty more he is able to receive. :)

Peace&Freedom
01-11-2008, 09:15 PM
Yep, and just as the other campaigns have strategic secrets they are not sharing with their supporters in the general public, it appears the Paul HQ has kept secrets from the grassroots. When Paul referred to NH and IA as the "little primaries" he seemed to me to be implying they were not worth all the money showered on them by Romney et al. Clearly HQ has decided to not spend the bulk of the $20 million on the January contests, but they couldn't tell the grassroots that. My own best guess of what HQ is up to is...

The energy of the volunteer efforts in the early states have filled in the gap in the early races to sustain the revolution until we kick into 'retail campaign season' (Super Teusday) where cash for commercials will be essential. That would mean WE, the grassroots, are the 'January momentum' Paul was counting on to keep going, before the other candidates ran out of cash.
Fiendishly clever! Now imagine the added pressure we will put on the cash-starved opponents once we add another $6-10 million to Paul's funding base on the MLK day money bomb, followed perhaps by another in February!

romeo2
01-11-2008, 09:17 PM
sounds good

roflwofl89
01-11-2008, 09:30 PM
...Now imagine the added pressure we will put on the cash-starved opponents once we add another $6-10 million to Paul's funding base on the MLK day money bomb, followed perhaps by another in February!

SUPER TUESDAY MONEY BOMB!!!:D

maybe a bit too close to the MLK one though

Scaryclouds
01-11-2008, 09:31 PM
If this plays out correctly, the other campaigns will be out of cash by Super Tuesday, and apx. 1000 delegates are up, and if you get even half of them, you're the front runner, and I don't see how someone besides Paul can get the ad time when they're out of dough.

The only way this will work is if we win at least one primary and have strong showings in two others. If we don't win any primaries before Super Tuesday, even if we had Bill Gates back us, we still probably wouldn't win.

RonRules
01-11-2008, 09:33 PM
The medias will be BEGGING us for advertisement purchases when they figure out everybody else is broke.

They'll soon figure out the front runners are broke and their news stories will be more favorable.

Work the small local stations. Ignore the Foxes.

liberteebell
01-11-2008, 09:37 PM
The medias will be BEGGING us for advertisement purchases when they figure out everybody else is broke.

They'll soon figure out the front runners are broke and their news stories will be more favorable.

Work the small local stations. Ignore the Foxes.


Work the small local stations!!! Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!

AlexMerced
01-11-2008, 09:39 PM
The only way this will work is if we win at least one primary and have strong showings in two others. If we don't win any primaries before Super Tuesday, even if we had Bill Gates back us, we still probably wouldn't win.

We can, watch this http://youtube.com/watch?v=Y-rCv7aUR7g

UnReconstructed
01-11-2008, 09:40 PM
I'm broke.... haven't worked since October.

dawnbt
01-11-2008, 09:44 PM
[QUOTE=Feelgood;931378]
Romney is financing his own campaign. He has plenty of wealth to go the distance, but who knows how much he is willing to squander of his own money, to get elected. He is running solely on his own money at the moment. He has pulled his advertising from SC and FL, last I heard. QUOTE]


I wish he'd drop them in MI! I'm sick of hearing them!

dawnbt
01-11-2008, 09:47 PM
I'm broke.... haven't worked since October.

I feel ya, just lost my job 2 weeks before Christmas!

Leslie Webb
01-11-2008, 09:53 PM
Mitt Romney's campaign shows that ads and money by themselves don't necessarily win; however, if we are the only campaign advertising come Super Tuesday that will be a big plus.

We have to qualify to get in the Florida debate. I don't remember the criteria. Look for fox to try and move the goal posts.

AlexMerced
01-11-2008, 10:29 PM
I'm broke.... haven't worked since October.

I havn't worked since november hopeuflly I get the job I just inteviewed for and I'll b making 60k and giving 18k + in taxes, yay IRS!!!

thisisgiparti
01-11-2008, 10:33 PM
...

paulforpaul
01-11-2008, 11:08 PM
Alex: You could engage in some public civil disobedience. The only downside to that is that prison doesn't seem like it would be that much fun.

"At the bottom of the endless pile of paper work which characterizes all regulation lies a gun." - Alan Greenspan (before the Federal Reserve System changed him).

I'm in a similar position, having recently landed my first large contract. Unfortunately, because it is contract work, I will have to "elect" to have my LLC taxed one way or another, AND I'll have to estimate my future earnings and pay income tax quarterly on that amount. I shudder at the idea of giving sanction to this idea that the income tax is somehow "voluntary", which is what the IRS calls it. It is voluntary if you want to live your life outside the confines of prison walls.

It makes me cringe.

Bringing this back on track, I plan on donating as well. I am hopeful that my investments in this campaign will yield results in freedom, peace, and prosperity.

Ilhaguru
01-11-2008, 11:08 PM
I'm broke....

+1

alexpasch
01-11-2008, 11:26 PM
I havn't worked since november hopeuflly I get the job I just inteviewed for and I'll b making 60k and giving 18k + in taxes, yay IRS!!!

Your overall effective tax rate is not 30% when you're making 60k...

mdevour
01-11-2008, 11:38 PM
The one thing I'd add to this discussion is that waiting until the money bombs to donate will starve the campaign's efforts to purchase advertising for Super Tuesday.

This is why Ron has asked us to make the best donation we can now.

It's going to take what they have in the bank now and another $20 million or more to have enough to blitz ALL the states that we have a chance in on Super Tuesday.

If they don't see fundraising pick up a LOT in the next week and a half, the campaign will have to do triage and pick and choose which states to saturate and which to abandon.

Even if the money bomb(s) are insanely successful, they will not have enough time left in which to purchase and run all the ads soon enough and often enough to be as effective as they would be if they can buy them in all states, right now, at least a week and a half sooner.

The main advantage Ron Paul has right now is our willingness to raise money for him. We must not squander our only chance to help him by waiting until it's too late.

The next week to 10 days are crucial!!!

The bottom line:

PLEASE DON'T SAVE EVERYTHING FOR THE MONEY BOMBS! GIVE AT LEAST HALF NOW, so the campaign can run a full program in ALL Super Tuesday states!

For Liberty!

Mike D.

paulforpaul
01-11-2008, 11:53 PM
Your overall effective tax rate is not 30% when you're making 60k...

This is true, but don't forget the wage-distorting employment tax that the employer pays on your behalf to the IRS. You never see it, but its an extra 7% of income that could have been paid to you.

The marginal tax rate turns out to be about 25%, yielding an effective/average rate of 15% of total income. I think he can expect to have federal taxes amount to around $10,000 paid from his pocket, and about $4,000 paid by his employer. Let me know if I got this wrong.

Paul4Prez
01-11-2008, 11:55 PM
SUPER TUESDAY MONEY BOMB!!!:D

maybe a bit too close to the MLK one though

February 14th would be a fitting day for the "LOVE" Revolution....

paulforpaul
01-11-2008, 11:57 PM
PLEASE DON'T SAVE EVERYTHING FOR THE MONEY BOMBS! GIVE AT LEAST HALF NOW, so the campaign can run a full program in ALL Super Tuesday states!

For Liberty!

Mike D.

Good point. I'll add that RP did bring up the MLK money bomb on TV, and probably is expecting/planning on a push from that. We're already seeing an impact from the fundraising emails. I don't think people are holding back.

JDouglasFisher
01-12-2008, 12:00 AM
Sounds like to me that the RP campaign is pulling a Reagan Strategy, OUTSPEND the Competition...





I don't know if you seen this but...

The Ghoul: Michael DuHaime begging for donations,

As found on the NYObserver

Dear xxxx,

With only 3 days left until the first votes are cast in Iowa, and 8 days before the New Hampshire Primary, Rudy needs your help today! Click here to give Rudy the support he needs to win the nomination.

Like Rudy, this campaign is tough and ready for the long haul. Please see below a memo from our Strategy Director Brent Seaborn that looks ahead to the next month and outlines why Rudy's plan to win the nomination is the right one. However, in order to go the distance, we need your help now.

Your gift of $10, $25, $50 or $100 will go a long way to helping Rudy win the GOP nomination and keeping the White House out of the hands of the Democrats in 2008.

Sincerely,

Michael DuHaime
Campaign Manager
Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee



And McCain taking out a 3 million dollar loan,

Loan Talk Underscores McCain's Money Problems

As Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) continues to mull whether to accept public financing for the remainder of the GOP presidential primary campaign, his campaign manager is speaking openly about the possibility of taking out a seven-figure loan to avoid the limits that come with accepting public funding.
John McCain


Rick Davis, who took over control of the day-to-day operations following a huge staff shuffle this summer, has broached the subject of a large loan to fund the campaign's activities in early states. The idea was discussed as recently as a phone call this week with senior staffers, according to sources familiar with that conversation.

Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's communications director, said the candidate himself has never considered the possibility of taking out a loan to avoid the spending limits that come with accepting public financing. (In Iowa, the spending cap is around $1.5 million while in New Hampshire it is approximately $800,000.)

Regardless, the debate within McCain's inner circle over the campaign's fundraising shows the financial straits now facing the one-time frontrunner.

In reports filed at the end of September, McCain showed $5.7 million raised over the past three months. While he had roughly $3.5 million left in the bank, just $1.8 million of that total can be spent on the primary. When factoring in the $1.7 million in debt McCain carried, his campaign is barely breaking even.

Given those financial struggles, it was baffling to many observers inside and outside the campaign when McCain approved a significant expenditure of funds on a 100,000-piece direct-mail drop in Iowa this week. McCain, who skipped Iowa in 2000, has struggled to build support in the state; privately, his aides have downplayed the importance of the state to his hopes at winning the nomination.

Not so New Hampshire. McCain continues to run strong in the state, with most polling showing him in a competitive three-way race with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. McCain has spent scads of time campaigning in the Granite State -- the site of his 2000 upset over George W. Bush -- and has already run television commercials there.

Given McCain's limited resources, there is a strong argument to be made that he should focus all of his time and money on New Hampshire in hopes of winning an upset victory there and using it to catapult him into contention in South Carolina, Florida and beyond.

There is no set date for when a candidate must decide whether or not to take public money for the primary, although one election lawyer said that in order for McCain (or any other candidate) to be able to borrow against the publicly provided money, he must inform the FEC of his decision by early November. Only of the top-tier candidates on either side -- John Edwards (D) -- has said he will take public financing for the primary.

John Weaver, a former senior adviser for McCain's presidential campaign, said there is no real option left for McCain other than to take public financing.

"They have the luxury of not having a choice in regard to accepting matching funds and giving their army hope of having enough funds to compete in the early primary states," Weaver said. "John has always been the superior candidate in the field, and not taking matching funds deprives this superior candidate from competing for the nomination. Not accepting matching funds out of pride is malpractice."

driller80545
01-12-2008, 12:50 AM
Since when did running out of money ever slow down any politician. reference 9 trillion overdraft

austin356
01-12-2008, 01:32 AM
Trust me, there is no strategy. If such happens it is by accident or the grace of the Lord.

liberteebell
01-12-2008, 08:01 AM
Alex: You could engage in some public civil disobedience. The only downside to that is that prison doesn't seem like it would be that much fun.

"At the bottom of the endless pile of paper work which characterizes all regulation lies a gun." - Alan Greenspan (before the Federal Reserve System changed him).

I'm in a similar position, having recently landed my first large contract. Unfortunately, because it is contract work, I will have to "elect" to have my LLC taxed one way or another, AND I'll have to estimate my future earnings and pay income tax quarterly on that amount. I shudder at the idea of giving sanction to this idea that the income tax is somehow "voluntary", which is what the IRS calls it. It is voluntary if you want to live your life outside the confines of prison walls.

It makes me cringe.

Bringing this back on track, I plan on donating as well. I am hopeful that my investments in this campaign will yield results in freedom, peace, and prosperity.


Yeah well, since it's voluntary I voluntarily decide not to pay estimated taxes every year. I am self-employed and have NEVER paid estimated taxes. To me, it's allowing the federal government to borrow MY money, interest free, until such time as I file my actual tax return at the end of the year. There's a small penalty involved and I'm sure it's based on earnings, but I would rather pay that then let them have a penny more of my money during the year to waste on God-knows-what.

That's my small contribution to civil disobedience which will probably net me an audit for just posting this but I refuse to live in fear.

boberino
01-12-2008, 08:08 AM
Yeah well, since it's voluntary I voluntarily decide not to pay estimated taxes every year. I am self-employed and have NEVER paid estimated taxes. To me, it's allowing the federal government to borrow MY money, interest free, until such time as I file my actual tax return at the end of the year. There's a small penalty involved and I'm sure it's based on earnings, but I would rather pay that then let them have a penny more of my money during the year to waste on God-knows-what.

That's my small contribution to civil disobedience which will probably net me an audit for just posting this but I refuse to live in fear.

So, you practice civil disobedience to the income tax by paying a tax on top of your tax?

liberteebell
01-12-2008, 08:26 AM
Yeah well. You're absolutely right; I never thought of it that way and although I can be the queen of sarcasm, I really wasn't trying to be sarcastic.

The income tax sucks any way you cut it. My point is that, being self-employed (I'm a Realtor), income can vary wildly. In 2007, for example, my income was about half of what it was in 2006. There is NO WAY IN HELL I'm going to pay taxes in advance based on some stupid formula of past earnings. So I pay a small penalty. To me, that's far better than letting them have my money during the year, only to get a refund, without interest, at the end of the year.

I'd like to just not pay at all but I have minor children who need their mom to not be in federal prison. Besides, I don't look good in an orange jump suit :p

Xyrus2
01-12-2008, 08:30 AM
Who's broke?

We are. http://gao.gov/cghome/d08417cg.pdf

RP and everyone needs to utilize this message.

~X~

Galileo Galilei
01-12-2008, 01:17 PM
February 14th would be a fitting day for the "LOVE" Revolution....

I'd like to see a money bomb for the most revolutionary person in history, Galileo Galilei (1564-1642), founder of the Scientific Revolution.

Galileo's birthday was February 15, 1564.

hueylong
01-12-2008, 06:05 PM
The new revelations about Giuliani and his 'not gonna be paid' staffers raises an interesting question...

Which Republican campaigns are basically broke? And are any of them in a position to do anything about it?

Giuliani: Has spent most of the money he raised, and doesn't even have enough to make a good run at Super Tuesday. January 29th is an eternity away, and even a win in Florida isn't going to change much for him.

McCain: Ran out of money during the summer, and nearly collapsed. His win in New Hampshire was a triumph of his history there, and retail politics. He took out a loan collateralized by the 'assets' of his campaign, but he's basically broke. He has a little coming in -- but really no way to get it in to help for Super Tuesday.

Huckabee: Won Iowa, and has raised a whopping $1 million.

Fred: LOL.

Romney: Has a seemingly limitless checkbook -- but pulled his advertising in South Carolina and Florida. Apparently, he doesn't have an appetite for spending it all given things aren't turning out as he planned. A win in Michigan might rekindle his confidence -- but his big problem is that his fundraising (from other people) has basically dried up.

Ron Paul: Dr. Paul has thus far been pretty conservative about his spending. To be sure, the campaign will need to raise a lot more if we want to make a run at the nomination... But, since the Paul campaign has a base of more than 200,000 contributors, and only 3% are maxed out -- if the R3volution shows some signs of movement -- there is no reason why we can't raise another $30 to $40 million between now and the end of the primary process in June.

The other campaigns would be hard-pressed to come up with a fraction of that. Now, money does not equal votes. BUT -- if we have the money to get our message out, and the others don't... we have a good chance to finish strong in many states, win our share of delegates and be a big player at the convention.

Just a thought.

Meiun
01-12-2008, 06:06 PM
Covered yesterday:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=87410

hueylong
01-12-2008, 06:09 PM
Thanks for the heads up. Think it bears repeating, and analysis.

Nicketas
01-12-2008, 06:14 PM
xxxx

Brian in Maryland
01-12-2008, 06:31 PM
I like the sound of that analysis.:)

Money bombs are always exciting and we are looking forward to the MLK day one.
http://freeatlast2008.com/

We are donating in the mean time also.
https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate/

me3
01-12-2008, 06:54 PM
Don't know if this was posted, but Romney raised $5 million the other day.

$1.5 for the primaries, $3.5 for the general election.

Michigan11
01-12-2008, 07:45 PM
My opinion:

Huckabee is not going to win another state. He raised his $1mill after Iowa's momentum pretty much.

McCain has the momentum right now, and really doesn't need money with that. McCain will not win much after Michigan though. His campaign's momentum will end before super tuesday.

Thompson, never had anything going, and never will.

Guliani, won't ever catch any momentum, he is done soon I believe.

Romney, has taken 2nd in every state so far, and has money.

Romney, McCain, and Ron Paul are the ones to look out for I believe as a political analysis.

RP needs to gain momentum from now up until super tuesday, but even after super tuesday, this election will still not be decided, but RP needs to win some states for sure on super tuesday.

AlexMerced
01-12-2008, 07:47 PM
I wouldn't count out anyone

the only one I see possibly might leave is thompson cause his campaign is a monumental failure

everyone else has reasons to stay despite financial and momentum issues

NeoRayden
01-12-2008, 07:48 PM
We need a Super Money Bomb. Have an ad in the Superbowl and have the person that donates the most money and the person that referes the most donors on MLK day in the commercial.

fmontez
01-12-2008, 07:50 PM
So, I heard on the news when I got home from work that a couple of the Republican candidates are running on empty.

Guiliani has stopped all activity in SC and Mich, focusing everything on FL and has NOT PAID HIS STAFF, hehe....

Also, has Mitt reached an end to how much he is willing to spend?

Fred Thompson has never had money.

Huckabee has never had staff... so now he has a bit of money.

Could Ron Paul's strategy already be taking shape? Run the other campaign's dry and then blitz for the home run?

Lets hope that isn't RP's strategy if he wants to win.

Feelgood
01-12-2008, 08:26 PM
Didnt we just do this in another thread?!

me3
01-12-2008, 09:29 PM
Just saw a Huckabee ad on Detroit Michigan NBC )?) affiliate. Economy, better education, better highways, bla blabla. 30 seconds long.

fmontez
01-12-2008, 10:19 PM
The Ron Paul 08 campaign is also broken, sitting on money when Dr. Paul is polling national at 3 to 4%. The money needs to be spend in MI, NV, and on a National TV ad campaign. In a few more months the rest of the candidates will start to drop out, and then the money will start rolling in for the top runners, and RP's advandage will be gone.

ronpaulyourmom
01-12-2008, 10:36 PM
Thompson is low on funds but raised about a million so far in January, he'll be able to compete going into SC. He needs first or second there to continue on to florida, otherwise he's out.

Rudy's fundraising is dry but he can pump a few million into Florida. He's 'all-in' and needs a win there.


Everybody else is in this thing no matter what until Feb 5th is over, imo.

Expat
01-13-2008, 10:07 AM
Huckabee has Ed Rollins on the team who has a formidable track record in helping his clients win elections. His leap in the poll numbers occurred soon after Ed came on board. He is a formidable candidate and has great pre-existing networks within the Evangelical and Fair Tax communities.

He has a good track record as a Governor and is very 'respectable'.

Clinton vs. Huckabee is probably how it's going to shake out unless RP steals the nations thunder with all your support (and some fat bribes to the Diebold programmers!!).

AgentOrange
01-13-2008, 10:54 AM
Paul needs to be going for bust--he should plan to have all his millions spent by Super Tuesday, because if he doesn't win by then, none of it will matter.