Is CNN Opinion Research Corp. Poll Relevant

[michaelwise]

*NOTE: The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation rankings for Democrats are based on 450 registered voters who describe themselves as Democrats or as Independents who lean to the Democratic Party, conducted by telephone on June 22-24, 2007. Sampling error: +/- 4.5 percentage points. The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation rankings for Republicans are based on 383 registered voters who describe themselves as Republicans or as Independents who lean Republican, conducted by telephone on June 22-24, 2007. Sampling error: +/-5 percentage points. The percentages may not total 100 percent because of respondents who chose "No opinion" or "Others."
** Indicates less than one-half of one percent

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/

Based on so few voters in the club, how can it be relevant, and how do we get in the club?

[njandrewg]

personally I don't think its relevant...450 divided by 50 states, is a mere 9 people per state. With those odds, its all about luck of a draw, not statistical significance

[njandrewg]

and of course numbers are useless anyways because when you randomly asked people...chances are they don't won't even participate in primaries anyways(only 12% of the country votes in primaries)

[nullvalu]

look at the poll to the bottom-right on that page:

Who would get your vote if the 2008 election were today?

results:

Hillary Clinton 20% 4173
John Edwards 7% 1353
Rudy Giuliani 11% 2175
John McCain 5% 1083
Barack Obama 21% 4420
Mitt Romney 6% 1197
Other 30% 6163
Total Votes: 20564

More people chose "Other" than any of the "front running" candidates! YES Of course Ron Paul is not an option..

[mtmedlin]

the sample is way to small and when I worked on polling the client wouldnt pay unless the margin of error was less then 3%. Five is amazingly bad ESPECIALLY with a small sample. Plus they inlcuded two candidates that havent announced and the undecided is high. WHen the bottom four Republican candidates drop. Well get a bounce and I also thenk that when Biden, Kucinich and Gravel are out we will pick up more. Just with those 7 droping out it opens six more percent not including the undecided. RP should pick up at least three and that will put him at 5% which is the magic number for making it into the debates.