We can WIN ! brokered Convention

[jointhefightforfreedom]

So Huckabee takes Iowa, and most likely South Carolina. McCain with NH. Romney sure to pick up some states somewhere. Maybe Benito takes Florida. Paul came just shy of taking Wyoming, and Nevada seems like a good place for him. In short...nobody's running away with this. We'll probably have a brokered convention.

If nobody takes over 50% of the delegates in the primaries, the delegates get to vote for whoever they feel like voting for, and if they vote Paul he takes it even if he got 1% in the primaries.

That means: it's not about the moneybombs, or the online polls, or signwaves, or the media. Not anymore. It's about going to your precinct meetings, district meetings, however it works in your state, and getting Ron Paul delegates to the National Convention. IF WE CAN WIN ALL THOSE STRAW POLLS WE CAN DO THIS TOO.

My local meetup had a meeting last night with a Republican precinct chair. Participation is down all across our state. We can take this.

But we won't do it if we piss and moan and go back to WoW.

So suck it up. This is politics. It's a long dirty game. We're all tired, we've given to money bombs till it hurt, written letters, stood on street corners, all that. But this is not the time to give up. We can win zero states, and walk away with the whole thing if we show up in force at the Republican Party meetings.

Get organized, make absolutely sure you get out the vote to those meetings, and get it done. We can sleep in November.

This is a repost from NH primaries

DELEGATES IS WHAT WE NEED!!!

[Richie]

Did we get any from New Hampshire, or is it winner takes all?

[Redcard]

Not percisely true.

We still have to be nominated, and that means taking the most delegates in five staes.

[jointhefightforfreedom]

Did we get any from New Hampshire, or is it winner takes all?
NH is not winner take all! i have been looking for the breakdown on that

[jointhefightforfreedom]

From what i see its a 3way tie for delegates
Wyoming-Romney
Huck- Iowa
Mccain- NH

If this patterrn continues we will have a brokered convention
wyoming has almost the same delegates as NH

[jointhefightforfreedom]

Delegate scorecard!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Ron Paul has 2 Delegates So far!!

[Redcard]

You have to be nominated to be on the list of people delegates can pick. If Dr. Paul cannot win five states , then he _CANNOT_ be on the list of people to win the nomination, brokered or NOT. There MUST be a nomination to win the Role Call vote.

It's not as simple as just having 1%. You have to be viable.

[jointhefightforfreedom]

I think we can win TX,LA,NV


I plan on being a delegate for my county come election day and i am taking several friends and family to vote me in (cinche)as delegate!

[Redcard]

Okay, TX, LA, NV are three.. we need two more.

[free.alive]

This is more like it

[Devil_rules_in_extremes]

Okay, TX, LA, NV are three.. we need two more.

Montana, and Alaska.

[mosquitobite]

You have to be nominated to be on the list of people delegates can pick. If Dr. Paul cannot win five states , then he _CANNOT_ be on the list of people to win the nomination, brokered or NOT. There MUST be a nomination to win the Role Call vote.

It's not as simple as just having 1%. You have to be viable.

IMO, this is where the grassroots can be MOST effective. Let the campaign do the national thing. Let US work on finding FIVE states that we can shore up for Dr Paul. I tend to think smaller states will be better so we can maximize our results, but that's jmho. I think Nevada and Alaska should be definites.

[mosquitobite]

Perhaps we should find out which states have the most per capita Constitution/Libertarian voters?

[Redcard]

Way I see it.. if we want two more states, we have to go after states that are a bit more for states rights. More and more, I'm thinking TX, LA, NV might be bad choices.

I know TX is our home state here, but the more and more I think on it.. Texas is the number two state in the nation. We're going to have to spend a LOT of money to fight for it.

Louisiana is still haunted by ghosts of Katrina. I don't think they'll be for someone who wants to pull government back .. they've seen a federal government that doesn't provide, they won't like that message right now.

Nevada is too close to Mitt Romney territory. I think it'd split the state, and we'd be hard pressed to spend money right.

Now, I would have said Wyoming, but that ship sailed.

Let's try for Virginia, Missouri, Oaklahoma, Montana, and Idaho.

Good solid states with the type of fight and message in them that Ron would push for.

[Ethek]

Perhaps we should find out which states have the most per capita Constitution/Libertarian voters?

I think that was NH :/

[mosquitobite]

Way I see it.. if we want two more states, we have to go after states that are a bit more for states rights. More and more, I'm thinking TX, LA, NV might be bad choices.

I know TX is our home state here, but the more and more I think on it.. Texas is the number two state in the nation. We're going to have to spend a LOT of money to fight for it.

Louisiana is still haunted by ghosts of Katrina. I don't think they'll be for someone who wants to pull government back .. they've seen a federal government that doesn't provide, they won't like that message right now.

Nevada is too close to Mitt Romney territory. I think it'd split the state, and we'd be hard pressed to spend money right.

Now, I would have said Wyoming, but that ship sailed.

Let's try for Virginia, Missouri, Oaklahoma, Montana, and Idaho.

Good solid states with the type of fight and message in them that Ron would push for.

Yeah, in hindsight, Wyoming would have been a good one :/

What about Alaska though?

[Ethek]

Way I see it.. if we want two more states, we have to go after states that are a bit more for states rights. More and more, I'm thinking TX, LA, NV might be bad choices.

I know TX is our home state here, but the more and more I think on it.. Texas is the number two state in the nation. We're going to have to spend a LOT of money to fight for it.

Louisiana is still haunted by ghosts of Katrina. I don't think they'll be for someone who wants to pull government back .. they've seen a federal government that doesn't provide, they won't like that message right now.

Nevada is too close to Mitt Romney territory. I think it'd split the state, and we'd be hard pressed to spend money right.

Now, I would have said Wyoming, but that ship sailed.

Let's try for Virginia, Missouri, Oaklahoma, Montana, and Idaho.

Good solid states with the type of fight and message in them that Ron would push for.


Between Thompson an Huckabee I would not be very confident about VA or MO.

Idaho has a larger Mormon Contenginet so that very likely will go to Romney

That leaves Oklahoma and Montana

[Jason726]

I've been hearing good things about his California support......

[Redcard]

Yeah, in hindsight, Wyoming would have been a good one :/

What about Alaska though?

Alaska could be a solid ace in the hole as well. Remember, I'm also thinking about states that won't take a lot of effort to get to and that have a decent delegate count. Winning is nice, but after we get the five, we also have to have enough delegates to be the President in the brokering scheme, not the vice president. If this thing goes brokered, that means one of the other strong ones is going to be VP.. or if we're not strong enough, WE will be VP.

[mosquitobite]

One thing we need to consider is open or closed primaries or if closed, when is the registration deadline.

I would have said KY would be good feeding ground but their primaries are closed and the deadline to register Rep was 12/31/07. We could still pick up NEW voters (deadline doesn't apply) but this is tougher, imo.

The good thing about KY is it has two bigger city areas and those two areas pretty much swing the state. Univ of Louisville/Univ of Kentucky (Lexington)

A smaller red state with only one or two big cities might help us maximize our efforts. If the cities tend to go blue, that may help even more.

[Redcard]

I've been hearing good things about his California support......

Forget California. Too much money is going to be spent there for us to compete adequately. It's risk vs return here. We don't have enough to bank on California, we want to pick areas that are going to be lighter contested.

Goal one is to get our five. If we can't win five states, brokered or not, it's done.

[Redcard]

One thing we need to consider is open or closed primaries or if closed, when is the registration deadline.

I would have said KY would be good feeding ground but their primaries are closed and the deadline to register Rep was 12/31/07. We could still pick up NEW voters (deadline doesn't apply) but this is tougher, imo.

The good thing about KY is it has two bigger city areas and those two areas pretty much swing the state. Univ of Louisville/Univ of Kentucky (Lexington)

A smaller red state with only one or two big cities might help us maximize our efforts. If the cities tend to go blue, that may help even more.

Kansas and Nebraska fit the two red states with one or two cities.

[mosquitobite]

Forget California. Too much money is going to be spent there for us to compete adequately. It's risk vs return here. We don't have enough to bank on California, we want to pick areas that are going to be lighter contested.

Goal one is to get our five. If we can't win five states, brokered or not, it's done.

I agree, but I think the money issue is for the campaign to worry about.

What the national grassroots needs to do is settle on five best case states for Ron Paul's message and get to writing/calling/buying billboards/paying for newspaper ads/sending DVDs, etc

[mosquitobite]

The other thing to consider might be blue state Republicans?

Is our support higher among them than the typical Republican (neo-con/social conservative)?

.

[Ethek]

The other thing to consider might be blue state Republicans?

Is our support higher among them than the typical Republican (neo-con/social conservative)?

.

Well the problem with most republicans in the field is they have a lot of blue state positions. They only converted to grab redstate voters.

[Bradley in DC]

Let US work on finding FIVE states that we can shore up for Dr Paul.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?p=584199

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=894569&postcount=5

[BeFranklin]

Bump.

[Paul4Prez]

RonPaulGraphs.com has donor density maps that should point us in the right direction:

http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html

Unfortunately, they said New Hampshire was our best state, and Wyoming was pretty good...

Of the remaining states, our best bets are probably:

Alaska -- ignored by all of the candidates, and a strong pro-liberty vote

Nevada -- low turnout caucus, and libertarian-leaning, without much real competition

Maine -- low turnout caucus, and a history of voting independent

Minnesota -- low turnout caucus, and a history of voting independent

Michigan -- open primary and Democratic primary doesn't count

Washington -- strong anti-war vote there (the state, not DC)

Colorado -- somewhat libertarian leaning

Montana -- very libertarian, and there are reportedly a lot of open precinct-level delegate positions for the asking

I wouldn't write off California, either -- it's winner take all per district, with 173 delegates available. We've been campaigning hard here, and have a manpower advantage.

[mosquitobite]

Bump

[Minuteman]

I think we should focus on those states where we know the Democrats have noone to vote for. I.E Michican, Florida. If we could bring in the Demo vote for Paul would be nice.

[AlbemarleNC0003]

NC is a red state. Primary is May 6. Some of us are just getting started here, but we're not hearing back from the campaign. I still haven't gotten my precinct captain issues worked out. It's not listed on the website. I have tried to contact three people. Anyone?

In my town, there are no GOP precinct captains in 4 precincts. Paul is not listed on the county GOP website. NC barely knows him outside of Charlotte and Raleigh. We always go Republican.

Think about us. We love Paul.