free.alive
01-09-2008, 01:54 PM
Well then we need a concrete plan.
Here's an aim toward that goal, and an explanation of why we need to focus on the caucus states, then the open primary states, then primaries open to independents. Let's start with the caucuses.
Caucus states are better for grassroots - you directly get out your vote and the process is much more transparent.
How many people may have been for Ron Paul, but then went with McCain to stop Huck or Ghoul, when if there were several there and they knew they were all for Paul, his vote would have stuck.
Also, for those who are worried about fixes or voting machines, this is totally taken out of the equation.
Third, and probably most importantly, caucuses (except in Iowa) generally have a much lower turnout. I've heard that the typical caucus vote is worth something like 30,000 votes or something. Of course, primaries have low turnouts as well, but it's much easier for any idiot to go place a vote for whoever was ahead that day in the news, than to be a party activist, learn about the rules and what a caucus does, and then to go and sit through the speeches and such. We can take all the caucus states from here on out if we do it right! Primaries are controlled by the media.
Here are the states:
Alaska 2/5 semi-open (voter can change at caucus
Colorado 2/5 closed
Hawaii 1/27-2/7 closed
Kansas 2/9 closed
Louisiana (and primary) 1/22 (primary 2/9) closed
Maine 2/1 - 2/3 closed
Minnesota 2/5 open
Montana (and primary) 2/5 (primary 6/3) closed (primary open)
Nevada 1/19 closed
North Dakota 2/5 open
Washington (and primary) 2/9 (primary 2/19) open (dems don't use primary vote)
Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Montana, Nevada, and Washington should all be very strong states for us. The primaries in Montana and Washington are open, and the Dems in WA don't use their primary results, only the caucus, so the primary for them is just a ceremony.
That said, there are also, there are open primaries in:
Alabama 2/5
Arkansas 2/5
Georgia 2/5
Idaho 5/27
Indiana 5/6
Michigan 1/15
Mississippi 3/11
Missouri 2/5
Montana 6/3
S. Carolina 1/19
Texas 3/4
Vermont 3/4
Virginia 2/12
Washington 2/19 (Dems don't use their result)
Wisconsin 2/19
Illinois primary (2/5) is semi-open, like Alaska's caucuses, which means that people can register Republican at the polls.
In these states we should focus on the Obama independents and Dems and get them to the polls for Ron Paul.
Also, like New Hampshire, some states have closed primaries that are open to independents:
North Carolina 5/6
Rhode Island 3/4
West Virginia 5/13
All of these are in play. The grassroots should focus regionally on states in their region, especially after the early states, then again after the early primaries. We are the only campaign to be organized in 50 states. We've done poorly in the first two, but we're also going to escape major attack ads and negative media focus before Super Tuesday and the next couple early states, and we also have $20m+ in the bank, or at least the equivalent value of time purchased.
Michigan
then
Nevada +
South Carolina
then
Hawaii and simultaneously
Maine
Two states that are closed but are early are:
Louisiana 1/22 (caucus) closed
Florida 1/29 (primary) closed
They are both closed and Florida especially is going to be battle, but we have tons of supporters in Florida and they, along with supporters from other states in the South, could help canvass Louisiana for their caucuses.
If we do this right, all states' primaries and caucuses even into June will matter and be opportunities for us to pick up delegates. The other campaigns simply won't be able to compete because we have a much more fanatical base which will donate over and over again if need be. We are in this for the long haul, and if we don't have our heads up our asses, we can pull this off against all odds.
These States account for 1211 Delegates at the National Convention. We will be picking up delegates in states all over, especially in California, if we play the game properly.
There is great reason to have continued positivity if we look at the bigger picture and how we can win. There is nothing traditional about this campaign, therefore none of the traditional approaches necessarily apply. We could do this without winning S. Carolina, although we could win S. Carolina. Michigan would be a great step in that direction.
By the way, this is not yet a plan, just a general strategy. We need to create the plan.
Here's an aim toward that goal, and an explanation of why we need to focus on the caucus states, then the open primary states, then primaries open to independents. Let's start with the caucuses.
Caucus states are better for grassroots - you directly get out your vote and the process is much more transparent.
How many people may have been for Ron Paul, but then went with McCain to stop Huck or Ghoul, when if there were several there and they knew they were all for Paul, his vote would have stuck.
Also, for those who are worried about fixes or voting machines, this is totally taken out of the equation.
Third, and probably most importantly, caucuses (except in Iowa) generally have a much lower turnout. I've heard that the typical caucus vote is worth something like 30,000 votes or something. Of course, primaries have low turnouts as well, but it's much easier for any idiot to go place a vote for whoever was ahead that day in the news, than to be a party activist, learn about the rules and what a caucus does, and then to go and sit through the speeches and such. We can take all the caucus states from here on out if we do it right! Primaries are controlled by the media.
Here are the states:
Alaska 2/5 semi-open (voter can change at caucus
Colorado 2/5 closed
Hawaii 1/27-2/7 closed
Kansas 2/9 closed
Louisiana (and primary) 1/22 (primary 2/9) closed
Maine 2/1 - 2/3 closed
Minnesota 2/5 open
Montana (and primary) 2/5 (primary 6/3) closed (primary open)
Nevada 1/19 closed
North Dakota 2/5 open
Washington (and primary) 2/9 (primary 2/19) open (dems don't use primary vote)
Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Montana, Nevada, and Washington should all be very strong states for us. The primaries in Montana and Washington are open, and the Dems in WA don't use their primary results, only the caucus, so the primary for them is just a ceremony.
That said, there are also, there are open primaries in:
Alabama 2/5
Arkansas 2/5
Georgia 2/5
Idaho 5/27
Indiana 5/6
Michigan 1/15
Mississippi 3/11
Missouri 2/5
Montana 6/3
S. Carolina 1/19
Texas 3/4
Vermont 3/4
Virginia 2/12
Washington 2/19 (Dems don't use their result)
Wisconsin 2/19
Illinois primary (2/5) is semi-open, like Alaska's caucuses, which means that people can register Republican at the polls.
In these states we should focus on the Obama independents and Dems and get them to the polls for Ron Paul.
Also, like New Hampshire, some states have closed primaries that are open to independents:
North Carolina 5/6
Rhode Island 3/4
West Virginia 5/13
All of these are in play. The grassroots should focus regionally on states in their region, especially after the early states, then again after the early primaries. We are the only campaign to be organized in 50 states. We've done poorly in the first two, but we're also going to escape major attack ads and negative media focus before Super Tuesday and the next couple early states, and we also have $20m+ in the bank, or at least the equivalent value of time purchased.
Michigan
then
Nevada +
South Carolina
then
Hawaii and simultaneously
Maine
Two states that are closed but are early are:
Louisiana 1/22 (caucus) closed
Florida 1/29 (primary) closed
They are both closed and Florida especially is going to be battle, but we have tons of supporters in Florida and they, along with supporters from other states in the South, could help canvass Louisiana for their caucuses.
If we do this right, all states' primaries and caucuses even into June will matter and be opportunities for us to pick up delegates. The other campaigns simply won't be able to compete because we have a much more fanatical base which will donate over and over again if need be. We are in this for the long haul, and if we don't have our heads up our asses, we can pull this off against all odds.
These States account for 1211 Delegates at the National Convention. We will be picking up delegates in states all over, especially in California, if we play the game properly.
There is great reason to have continued positivity if we look at the bigger picture and how we can win. There is nothing traditional about this campaign, therefore none of the traditional approaches necessarily apply. We could do this without winning S. Carolina, although we could win S. Carolina. Michigan would be a great step in that direction.
By the way, this is not yet a plan, just a general strategy. We need to create the plan.