Ron Paul in Good Shape

[Galileo Galilei]

Ron Paul in Good Shape

After getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire, 5th place, and just 3% out of 3rd, Ron Paul remains in very good shape to get the GOP nomination.

Here's why:

TV Advertising

According to the USA Today today, here are the amounts spent on TV advertising so far;

Romney $24 million

McCain $4 million

Giuliani $3 million

Huckabee $2 million

Thompson $2 million

Ron Paul $2 million

This information is crucial because it means that Ron Paul has the most solid financial foundation, by far, of any republican candidate. In the future, Ron Paul will be able to spend much more money on TV ads than the other candidates.

The other candidates have bleak money raising futures as well. Most people who give the maximum $2300 have either maxed out, or figured out that the democrats will win in the general election. Plus they are not sure which republican will get the nomination yet.

CANDIDATE PROFILES

Giuliani

Strategy was to get 3rd in Iowa and 2nd in NH, then wait for the big states. Didn't happen. Got 6th and 4th. Made 45 visits to Iowa and spent over $1 million on TV ads in NH on the largest TV network there. Probably almost broke. National poll numbers way down. Polling terrible in South Carolina. Zero grassroots support.

Romney

Strategy was to win Iowa and NH. Didn't happen. Wasn't even close. Spent a boatload on TV and still didn't win. Must decide how many more millions he will dump into his campaign. National poll numbers way down. Not polling well in SC. Zero grassroots support.

McCain

Some now think of him as the front-runner. Campaign almost broke. Needs the MSM to prop up campaign. Zero grassroots support. Might get GOP nomination.

Huckabee

In good shape. Polling well in SC. Has modest grassroots and fund-raising ability. Needs to belly up to the power brokers to win. Might get GOP nomination.

Thompson

Got 1% in NH. Campaign broke. Will drop out after SC.

Ron Paul

Needs to keep raising money. Needs to start outspending the others on TV ads. Needs to move into consistent double digits in the polls. Needs to get 3rd or 4th in a primary. Needs to start winning states on Super Tuesday.

www.ronpaul2008. com

[RonPaulFTFW]

I agree.

We have to step up and strike back harder.

why give up now?

[animator]

Again, considering that only 71 out of over 2300 delegates have been awarded, this race is just getting started and anyone can win. If some of the other candidates drop out, more votes will potentially go to Paul. But we really have to convince people that Paul is the man for the job

[angrydragon]

Yah, I think Fred will dropout soon.

[Daantje757]

Good post.

I would add: focus on local TV and newspaper ads. Cheaper, less biased than MSM, reach older people. Easy to organize yourself or through meetup groups.

You've probably seen the sticky: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=75102

[RonPaulFTFW]

This is about the last man standing.

[spudea]

I concur. I see most of the other candidates on a downward slope. Thompson is gone for sure. The others get massive amounts of msm coverage so they can limp by even if their campaign is broke. Unfortunately that means they will all get to feb 5th. Paul really needs a top 3 finish though so the rest of the country can believe that he is a viable candidate and hopefully turn the media spotlight on him. Romney is gonna have a tough time in the next few primaries. I think huckabee will continue to do well.

[kaberUSA]

Ron Paul in Good Shape

After getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire, 5th place, and just 3% out of 3rd, Ron Paul remains in very good shape to get the GOP nomination.

Here's why:

TV Advertising

According to the USA Today today, here are the amounts spent on TV advertising so far;

Romney $24 million

McCain $4 million

Giuliani $3 million

Huckabee $2 million

Thompson $2 million

Ron Paul $2 million

This information is crucial because it means that Ron Paul has most solid financial foundation, by far, of any republican candidate. In the future, Ron Paul will be able to spend much more money on TV ads than the other candidates.

The other candidates have bleak money raising futures as well. Most people who give the maximum $2300 have either maxed out, or figured out that the democrats will win in the general election. Plus they are not sure which republican will get the nomination yet.

CANDIDATE PROFILES

Giuliani

Strategy was to get 3rd in Iowa and 2nd in NH, then wait for the big states. Didn't happen. Got 6th and 4th. Made 45 visits to Iowa and spent over $1 million on TV ads in NH on the largest TV network there. Probably almost broke. National poll numbers way down. Polling terrible in South Carolina. Zero grassroots support.

Romney

Strategy was to win Iowa and NH. Didn't happen. Wasn't even close. Spent a boatload on TV and still didn't win. Must decide how many more millions he will dump into his campaign. National poll numbers way down. Not polling well in SC. Zero grassroots support.

McCain

Some now think of him as the front-runner. Campaign almost broke. Needs the MSM to prop up campaign. Zero grassroots support. Might get GOP nomination.

Huckabee

In good shape. Polling well in SC. Has modest grassroots and fund-raising ability. Needs to belly up to the power brokers to win. Might get GOP nomination.

Thompson

Got 1% in NH. Campaign broke. Will drop out after SC.

Ron Paul

Needs to keep raising money. Needs to start outspending the others on TV ads. Needs to move into consistent double digits in the polls. Needs to get 3rd or 4th in a primary. Needs to start winning states on Super Tuesday.

www.ronpaul2008. com

I agree, but your not taking into account all the minutes the MSM spends covering the other guys. That's tens of millions in free advertising.

[Joby]

The campaign needs to begin the blitz. Now.

We need to focus on the next couple of states, but I think they should start hammering the west coast. There's no reason we shouldn't walk out of cali with less than 50 delegates.

[Nic4Truth]

Thanks for this info, a glimmer of hope!! :)

[WilliamC]

Great post but the momentum that Ron Paul could have gained even by 4th place finishes, beating two so-called front runners, was important to many in the grassroots. I guess we are to new to campaigning to understand long-term strategery, we needed our quick fix of victory.

But Ron Paul does have the support and money to go all the way through the primaries. Let's keep him funded and keep volunteering shall we?

[rockandrollsouls]

Doctor Paul needs more money...it won't be an easy battle. Any fund raising events in the future?

[acstichter]

While you may think the other candidates do not have grassroots support, each state does have a GOP party structure and supporters who do volunteer. Basically every state has this big group of people who are ready and willing to call phone lists, host fundraising parties, and get out the vote. And they will work for whoever appears to be the frontrunner in their state. In AZ it is obviously McCain (he's our Senator and doing well).

We need to counteract this force by doing phone banking in large numbers. In AZ, we have 1,000,000 Republican voters to reach. 400,000 are being sent their early ballots this week! We have like 50 people willing to help! There are almost 1000 meetup members!

Most Ron Paul people only want to post on the internet and hold signs on street corners. 10% are super motivated and really working their asses off. In the nation, only 10% have shown up to vote for Ron Paul, even though so many people like his message. Is there some kind of 10% rule to describe this?

[JohnM]

According to the USA Today today, here are the amounts spent on TV advertising so far;

Romney $24 million

McCain $4 million

Giuliani $3 million

Huckabee $2 million

Thompson $2 million

Ron Paul $2 million


Giuliani . . . Probably almost broke.

Romney . . . . Spent a boatload on TV and still didn't win.

McCain . . . . Campaign almost broke.

Thompson . . . .Campaign broke.

Does anyone notice something? Most of these candidates are reckless big spenders. They spend big, even when they cannot afford to.

So . . .

Republican voters of America!

Would you trust any of these men with the nation's economy?

Of course not!

Vote for the one man you can trust to run the economy with prudence and wisdom:

Dr Ron Paul!!

[Galileo Galilei]

The Rush Limbaugh factor

Does anyone hear listen to Rush? I know he doesn't like McCain or Huckabee. If this race comes down to McCain, Huckabee and Ron Paul, what will Rush Limbaugh do?

Could the unexpected happen?

[Lars]

About Ron I would add: Needs the economy to tank!

[angrydragon]

http://i17.tinypic.com/7wz7xc3.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundraising_for_the_2008_presidential_election

[BS_]

Ron Paul is the wisest spender/saver of money and understands economic responsibility even on a personal spending level? No big shocker there.

[RonPaulFTW08]

They said Giuliani spent $2 MILLION in NH and made more visits there than any other candidate. He's in a pretty bad position.

Ron Paul is doing EXCELLENT in my opinion for someone who has been pretty much unknown till recently.

[RonPaulFTW08]

BTW I'm sure everyone's seen this by now.. http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/january2008/010908_district_admits.htm

VOTE FRAUD CONFIRMED. Let's hope those 31 cheated voters go public and do it soon!

[smallsheep]

Yep, no reason to lose hope. We're not doing great, but we're hanging in there. We need the other candidates to stick with it and keep the vote split. We need Ron Paul to keep pulling the other candidates further on the economic front.

If there is one, an anti-war candidate will win the general election. That is the most important issue. It's what's draining the economy and the US's likability around the world.

[angrydragon]

Percentage spent to the total amount of donations upto Q3.

112% Romney
95% McCain
95% Hunter
74% Huckabee
64% Rudy (still has $16,480,569 coh for Q3)
39% Fred
34% Ron Paul

[tkullervo]

We have not yet begun to fight! Viva la revolucion!

[Galileo Galilei]

Percentage spent to the total amount of donations upto Q3.

112% Romney
95% McCain
95% Hunter
74% Huckabee
64% Rudy (still has $16,480,569 coh for Q3)
39% Fred
34% Ron Paul

By my calculations, Ghouliani is spending about $3 million per month on non-advertising. This includes bloated salaries, travel, lodging, meals, entertaiment, high-priced consulting, focus groups, polls, fundraising commisions, etc.

That means $9 million spent for the 4Q.

Also, of the $16 million quoted above, $5 million is for the general election only, can't be spent in the primaries.

That leaves $2 million for ads, plus whatever he raised since October 1. He probably doesn't have a lot of money or he would be spending more on the early primaries. This is why he has fallen back to Florida.

Ghouliani is also down to 9% in today's Rasmussen poll, pathetic for a guy who has been all over national TV since 9/11.

Has anyone noticed that none of the candidates except Paul and Huckabee, have announced their 4Q numbers? Huckabee took in $5 million which is good for him and he has lower overhead as he had no money until recently. But the others? Total silence. They have to file their reports by January 31. I suspect it will not be pretty.

Ron Paul needs to keep the momentum going this month. He can do it.