Romney sscales back straw poll plans

[spacebetween]

Anyone else catch this? Romney apparently doesn't want to "overshoot" the Iowa straw poll.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/21/AR2007072100744.html

Sorry about the misspelling in the title...

[Phil M]

That's amazing news.

[FreedomLover]

Preemptive Damage Control for when he doesn't do that well in the straw poll. :cool:

[Dustancostine]

I'm not sure that it is amazing. To me it is very snake like.

If Romney wins, then he can say he won with minimal input.

If Romney loses, he is going to say that it was because he didn't try that hard, and it doesn't matter anyways since the other top contenders did not participate, and the results are meaning less.

I think it also says that his fund raising is going badly.


--Dustan

[Wyurm]

I'm not sure that it is amazing. To me it is very snake like.

If Romney wins, then he can say he won with minimal input.

If Romney loses, he is going to say that it was because he didn't try that hard, and it doesn't matter anyways since the other top contenders did not participate, and the results are meaning less.

I think it also says that his fund raising is going badly.


--Dustan

I believe he's down to running on his own dime at this point. As for whether or not this is good, well, its not like hes saying hes quitting before he ever got started, it looks like he just slowed down in trying to get new voters. So, whether or not its good for us depends on how many people he's already paid off.

[Birdlady]

Yeah this could be good or bad. I wonder how many people will even attend the straw poll if all of these "frontrunners" are backing out of it. I wonder if this has ever happened in the history of all elections before.

They are very scared of Ron Paul!

[Dustancostine]

Another thing I just thought of, was maybe he is offering the tickets and not too many people are taking him up on it.

[Thomas_Paine]

Yeah this could be good or bad. I wonder how many people will even attend the straw poll if all of these "frontrunners" are backing out of it. I wonder if this has ever happened in the history of all elections before.

They are very scared of Ron Paul!


Ron Paul is the reason this is all happening

[UCFGavin]

Another thing I just thought of, was maybe he is offering the tickets and not too many people are taking him up on it.

or maybe he already spent all the money and is setting himself up good and then saying "well, we did a little work but wow our support in iowa is great!"

[paulitics]

They are backing out because the phone polls are bogus. If they had nothing to worry about, they would not back out. They, are all snakes in the grass and the seond tier is stronger than the media would indicate. WE need to advertise in Iowa ASAP. I'm worried about guys like Hucakbee, Tancrado, the guys that have been in Iowa nonstop for months. I don't think we'll take first, but we can't afford to miss second place.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

They are backing out because the phone polls are bogus. If they had nothing to worry about, they would not back out. They, are all snakes in the grass and the seond tier is stronger than the media would indicate. WE need to advertise in Iowa ASAP. I'm worried about guys like Hucakbee, Tancrado, the guys that have been in Iowa nonstop for months. I don't think we'll take first, but we can't afford to miss second place.

Why wouldn't we take first?

[remaxjon]

very interesting

I'm not sure what this means yet but I think we can.

[Dave Wood]

The scary part is if they are somehow conspiring to make the Iowa straw poll look like a joke this year if one of the 2nd tier win it.

They will all say "well of course they won, it wasnt like Iowans had any real choices in the poll since none of the top dogs were there"....................lets hope this is not the case, I wouldnt put it past them though

[Thomas_Paine]

Turning your back on the straw poll is a double edge sword, yes it does condescend the importance of the poll but more importantly it condescends the voice of the people of Iowa. The "top tier" are folding and the people are WATCHING.

[csen]

First, let's stop being delusional. Romney and Giuliani are not afraid of Ron Paul. They read the NY Times and the rest of old media -- they don't believe RP has any chance.

Second, I think this is terrific news for us -- it should only embolden RP supporters and give Romney supporters less reason to turn out. Can we shock the world and win this thing?

[specsaregood]

There has been some buzz lately from NON-RP blogs that Ron Paul is expected to take second place. I urge caution in believing that. It could very well be a setup so that Ron Paul underperforms in the poll.

To be honest, I would surprised by a second place finish. He has only been to Iowa once early on. The other candidates have been there a lot. Most of the "2nd tier" guys are blowin their whole wad on Iowa.

The fact that this "expected 2nd place" finish has been predicted entirely by NON-RP sites is evidence enough. The people from Iowa here have said plenty of times that the campaign has not done enough in Iowa.

Edit: I am an optimistic person, but I would guess that Romney thinks he has it in the bag; and is hedging his bets against any of the upstarts.

[Johnnybags]

Romney is going to win the straw poll but now has to drag McCain and Ghouliani along to debate them instead of Ron. He will win and say its nice but the competition never showed up and he expects the other two to be a real threat. Its a game. Heck, Ghouliaini is propping up a third teir McCain who has no shot? He is broke and carrying his own bags now, Tancredo has a better shot. Romney will eventually have to deal with Ron, but is delaying it, hoping it never comes. The good news is Americans are just beginning to see thru the charade.

[markpa]

Not sure what to make of this but the way I have been looking at this whole election is the more status quo politicians running the better. I hope McCain can stay in and I also think it would be good in Newt gets in. They are all the same and will spend tons of money just to plit the same vote.

As far as this straw poll is concerned Mitt has already spent a lot on it so I think this is just a way of covering his but.

[Lord Xar]

I personally think Romney is pulling out because those "electronic polling" items have already been "dealt with" and there is no need for him to pour any additional monies into Iowa.

My 2 cents.....

[paulitics]

First, let's stop being delusional. Romney and Giuliani are not afraid of Ron Paul. They read the NY Times and the rest of old media -- they don't believe RP has any chance.

Second, I think this is terrific news for us -- it should only embolden RP supporters and give Romney supporters less reason to turn out. Can we shock the world and win this thing?

I don't think their afraid of any one candidate, but they are concerened that their numbers will be lower than expected if they all ran together. For instance, they would have to split the prowar vote amongst each other. You have to keep in mind, that this all pretty unprecedented that the majority of the frontrunners are ditching this thing and I have my suspician as to why. Have you noticed how low their fundraising numbers are? Where are the enthusiam for these guys? The Iraq was has split the GOP up. A telephone poll that shows that 90% are split amongst stay the course, imperiliastic, candidates is suspicious 38% of REPUBS are now AGAINST the war. So 90% are going to vote for the continued Bush policy, even though they are against it.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/06/26/poll.iraq.schneider/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

[Lois]

To Whoever said "I don't think we'll take first," -- I don't ever want to hear negative words like that on this board. I think any negative thoughts put into words about Ron Paul's chances should be censored.

What you say is what you get.

Lois

[torchbearer]

What you say is what you get.

One trillion Euros. ;)

[FreedomLover]

yeah, we should always shoot for first. Because even if we don't get it, all the hard work we put in will still assure us of a great finish.

[Joe Knows]

My take on the front tier collapse is as follows.

Rudy pulled out because of the numbers. He is too liberal for Iowa Republicans. He knew he could not win and wanted to save his money.

McCain pulled out because he doesn't have the money.

Thompson hasn't announced because he can't afford an upset in Iowa.

Romney is distancing himself because if he doesn't win he becomes a joke.

The campaign's official position should be something to the effect of...

The official Ron Paul campaign is not buying tickets and paying Iowans to vote. If Iowans vote for Ron Paul it is because they agree with his message of life, liberty, and a constitutional government. We view success by the number of Iowans who hear this message and are motivated to vote for Ron Paul in January.

[Phil M]

To Whoever said "I don't think we'll take first," -- I don't ever want to hear negative words like that on this board. I think any negative thoughts put into words about Ron Paul's chances should be censored.

What you say is what you get.

Lois

How is it being negative to say something that very likely is true?

[JosephTheLibertarian]

How is it being negative to say something that very likely is true?

We should aspire for FIRST....

[j650]

To Whoever said "I don't think we'll take first," -- I don't ever want to hear negative words like that on this board. I think any negative thoughts put into words about Ron Paul's chances should be censored.

What you say is what you get.

Lois

I don't know why you're jumping on the guy for saying he probably won't take first. And censoring him because he doesn't agree with you and states what is probably likely to happen? Hello, isn't that what's happening to Ron Paul in the mainstream media!!?? Seriously guys, Romney is probably going to take 1st being that he's got a lot of money to throw around and more support in Iowa right now. I'd like Dr. Paul to take first as much as all of you, but is it likely? Not very. I'm sure the guy that said this will be ecstatic if Dr. Paul takes first as well. I don't think a 2nd or 3rd place finish here is negative at all. Romney is clearly a front runner, Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback are midwesterners, and all of the other candidates have spent a lot more time than Ron Paul in Iowa so a solid 2nd or 3rd I think is a good thing.

[quickmike]

Yeah this could be good or bad. I wonder how many people will even attend the straw poll if all of these "frontrunners" are backing out of it. I wonder if this has ever happened in the history of all elections before.

They are very scared of Ron Paul!

This is good for all the non "frontrunners" in my opinion. Iowa voters might feel like the top tier candidates dont give a crap about them enough to participate. This can only be a good thing for RP and even the rest of the bunch.

[quickmike]

To Whoever said "I don't think we'll take first," -- I don't ever want to hear negative words like that on this board. I think any negative thoughts put into words about Ron Paul's chances should be censored.

What you say is what you get.

Lois

Yeah, I agree........ after all, censorship is what Ron Paul is all about right? Lets set a good example and censor anything we dont agree with. That will show those bastards who their kings....... i mean rulers..... oops, i mean masters are.;)

[mtmedlin]

Anything in the top four is a success. We arent supposed to be top tier. We havent spent much money and as I have said repeatedly, Iowa isnt the whole ballgame. NH primary is 100 times more important. I cant remember the last person who won the Iowa straw poll that actually took the presidency.

As far as censoring comments about where he will place....you've got to be kidding me. We support Ron Paul, need I say more.

[Jeremie in Minnesota]

This is a PR move, pure and simple.

Just as someone has already said, if he wins, his campaign can say - "look, we must have grassroots in Iowa", because they decided to not put as many resources into the event. If they lose, they can use the same reason....This is a win-win for their campaign...and whoever is running this campaign and is in charge of media relations is in fact, dare I say it....doing good work.

Now the question is, what would prompt this? I would venture to say that Romney's people know he may not fare well. During the Candidate's Forum, an attendee of that forum and I had a conversation, and he told me "Romney just bombed in Iowa". Apparently when pressed on his views of abortion by a forum goer during open Q&A, and what guides him on those views, he struggled mightily to answer. Remember, this forum was held in part by the Iowa Christian Alliance. The most conservative of the GOP base.

My guess is that Romney is not doing nearly as well in collecting support for the Straw Poll, and instead of suffering a defeat and dealing with the fallout at that point, they would much rather deal with any negative attention right now as a response to this decision.

This is also a clear attempt to marginalize Iowa at this stage in the game, which I really do not understand. Apparently, if there is one area the top tier candidates and their staffs are not good studies, it is in the realm of history: NEVER, has a candidate skipped this straw poll and won the caucus....never.

The GOP better wake up, because there is not a snowball's chance in hell that any candidate other than Ron Paul who can beat a democrat next fall.

Here is the deal - Romney is a hypocrite, and we all knew it ---- but now it is fairly easy to point out. During the aforementioned forum, Romney talked about being committed to the process in Iowa, and the campaign spokesman even released this quote:

“Governor Romney has put in the time, built the organization and communicated his message to the voters of Iowa. It’s a message focused on bringing conservative change to Washington, and it is resonating with Iowa voters because it matches his record of accomplishment as governor.

“Our plan all along has been to play in the Iowa straw poll, and that hasn’t changed. Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa.

“It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them.”

[Dustancostine]

In that article it said that Thompson planned on running an unconventional campaign. What do we do if Thompson declares in November, never attends a debate, never fields questions from the media, uses is money on T.V. and radio ads and giving stump speeches and is invited onto Hannity, Rush, Engals, Bortz and Savage weekly to field softball questions, and Never responds to accusations about his record.

It would be almost impossible to have a public debate about his stances and with his popularity high because no one knows anything about him coupled with persuasive t.v ads he would be a tough candidate.

[Jeremie in Minnesota]

In that article it said that Thompson planned on running an unconventional campaign. What do we do if Thompson declares in November, never attends a debate, never fields questions from the media, uses is money on T.V. and radio ads and giving stump speeches and is invited onto Hannity, Rush, Engals, Bortz and Savage weekly to field softball questions, and Never responds to accusations about his record.

It would be almost impossible to have a public debate about his stances and with his popularity high because no one knows anything about him coupled with persuasive t.v ads he would be a tough candidate.

If this does happen, there is a democrat in the White House a year from January.

[MozoVote]

I don't think such a plan would work. Iowa is designed for old school campaigning, and people will realize that Thompson is being evasive.

[Dustancostine]

George W. Bush won the straw poll in 1999 (this is in response to the person who said they cannot remember the last person to win the straw poll and presidency. I also think Bill Clinton won in 1991)

[Johnnybags]

He has absolutely no shot, do not worry, he is a buffoon, cannot think on his feet and when his life story is aired, it will make Rudy look like a monk. Thompson is the George Bush part III, a non-starter.

[Dustancostine]

I don't think such a plan would work. Iowa is designed for old school campaigning, and people will realize that Thompson is being evasive.

I was not talking about the straw poll I was talking about the primary race.

[MozoVote]

I think Ron will connect well with Iowans if he just makes more appearances there. He does not come across as a "politician" like Romney or most of the others. Ron Paul could be your neighbor.

[quickmike]

If this does happen, there is a democrat in the White House a year from January.

word

Hillary vs Thompson = President Hillary 100%

[Jeremie in Minnesota]

So check this quote from a Romney on Iowa Public Television on June 1st - Here is the link with a video clip. Anyone know how to rip and clip, getting this up on YouTube to prove to everyone he is a hypocrite?

http://www.iptv.org/iowapress/transcript_detail.cfm?ipShowNum=3440

"WELL, IF YOU LOOK AT THE NATIONAL POLLS, YOU RECOGNIZE THAT I'VE GOT A LONG WAYS TO GO TO CATCH UP WITH SENATOR MAYOR GIULIANI OR SENATOR MCCAIN. BUT I'M GOING TO KEEP ON BATTLING AND OUR TEAM HERE, THE PEOPLE IN THE GRASS-ROOTS THAT I'VE COME TO KNOW, HAVE BEEN VERY SUPPORTIVE AND HAVE GIVEN ME A REAL BOOST HERE. I RECOGNIZE ALSO THAT THERE ARE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN POLITICS, AND I'VE HAD SOME GOOD UPDRAFTS: A COUPLE OF DEBATES; THE '60 MINUTES' PIECE; THE 'TODAY' SHOW; THE JAY LENO SHOW; ALL THOSE THINGS CAME TOGETHER. IF I COULD HAVE THAT HAPPEN EVERY WEEK, I'D BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE IOWA REPUBLICANS RUN A THING THEY CALL THE STRAW POLL ON AUGUST 11.

Host: DO YOU HAVE TO WIN THAT STRAW POLL?

"NO, I DON'T HAVE TO WIN THAT. I'D LIKE TO WIN IT. I'M GOING TO COMPETE AGGRESSIVELY. I BELIEVE IN THE IOWA PROCESS. I THINK THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE PLANNING ON RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT SHOULD REALLY SUBJECT THEMSELVES TO THE PROCESS OF GETTING KNOWN BY VOTERS IN IOWA. THIS IS A PROCESS THAT IS NOT ADVERTISING BASED. IT'S PERSON-TO-PERSON BASED. AND I DON'T KNOW THAT THERE'S A BETTER SYSTEM IMAGINABLE THAN HAVING A COUPLE OF STATES LIKE IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, ALSO SOUTH CAROLINA, GETTING TO KNOW THE HEART AND THE CHARACTER OF THE CANDIDATE RATHER THAN JUST LOOKING AT THEIR 30-SECOND AD. SO I THINK IT'S A GOOD PROCESS, AND I INTEND TO COMPETE AGGRESSIVELY. "

Now he is pulling back? Oh how the times have changed.

[csen]

In that article it said that Thompson planned on running an unconventional campaign. What do we do if Thompson declares in November, never attends a debate, never fields questions from the media, uses is money on T.V. and radio ads and giving stump speeches and is invited onto Hannity, Rush, Engals, Bortz and Savage weekly to field softball questions, and Never responds to accusations about his record.

It would be almost impossible to have a public debate about his stances and with his popularity high because no one knows anything about him coupled with persuasive t.v ads he would be a tough candidate.

My guess is this is the Thompson strategy. It's a hell of a gamble for the GOP, though, to essentially nominate a guy who hasn't been vetted on the national stage, but given how weak Rudy McRomney are, the powers-that-be might think it's their best shot.

[foofighter20x]

Preemptive Damage Control for when he doesn't do that well in the straw poll. :cool:

Either that or they are onto our plan to ask their campaign for tickets to let RP supporters vote... :(

[RonPaul2012grassroots]

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/ia0899/ia0899bush.html

[Johnnybags]

He changes direction with the wind and rides the tide, like a typical blowhard POL,
+ he has to help McCaino and Ghouliani for now otherwise he'll have to debate Ron which is a nighmare for all of them. I for one am happy to see him blowing thru his cash, keep on spending Mitt, you are helping the economy.



So check this quote from a Romney on Iowa Public Television on June 1st - Here is the link with a video clip. Anyone know how to rip and clip, getting this up on YouTube to prove to everyone he is a hypocrite?

http://www.iptv.org/iowapress/transcript_detail.cfm?ipShowNum=3440

"WELL, IF YOU LOOK AT THE NATIONAL POLLS, YOU RECOGNIZE THAT I'VE GOT A LONG WAYS TO GO TO CATCH UP WITH SENATOR MAYOR GIULIANI OR SENATOR MCCAIN. BUT I'M GOING TO KEEP ON BATTLING AND OUR TEAM HERE, THE PEOPLE IN THE GRASS-ROOTS THAT I'VE COME TO KNOW, HAVE BEEN VERY SUPPORTIVE AND HAVE GIVEN ME A REAL BOOST HERE. I RECOGNIZE ALSO THAT THERE ARE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN POLITICS, AND I'VE HAD SOME GOOD UPDRAFTS: A COUPLE OF DEBATES; THE '60 MINUTES' PIECE; THE 'TODAY' SHOW; THE JAY LENO SHOW; ALL THOSE THINGS CAME TOGETHER. IF I COULD HAVE THAT HAPPEN EVERY WEEK, I'D BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE IOWA REPUBLICANS RUN A THING THEY CALL THE STRAW POLL ON AUGUST 11.

Host: DO YOU HAVE TO WIN THAT STRAW POLL?

"NO, I DON'T HAVE TO WIN THAT. I'D LIKE TO WIN IT. I'M GOING TO COMPETE AGGRESSIVELY. I BELIEVE IN THE IOWA PROCESS. I THINK THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE PLANNING ON RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT SHOULD REALLY SUBJECT THEMSELVES TO THE PROCESS OF GETTING KNOWN BY VOTERS IN IOWA. THIS IS A PROCESS THAT IS NOT ADVERTISING BASED. IT'S PERSON-TO-PERSON BASED. AND I DON'T KNOW THAT THERE'S A BETTER SYSTEM IMAGINABLE THAN HAVING A COUPLE OF STATES LIKE IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, ALSO SOUTH CAROLINA, GETTING TO KNOW THE HEART AND THE CHARACTER OF THE CANDIDATE RATHER THAN JUST LOOKING AT THEIR 30-SECOND AD. SO I THINK IT'S A GOOD PROCESS, AND I INTEND TO COMPETE AGGRESSIVELY. "

Now he is pulling back? Oh how the times have changed.

[Dave]

The Ames Straw Poll is a game of beating expectations - the goal is to beat the expectations people had for you going in. Romney is working to lower expectations - a smart strategic move.

[jd603]

Bingo, nothing but great public relations. you know he's going to spend big bucks in Iowa. Unless he's got an ace up his sleeve with the DIEBOLD machines? :)



I'm not sure that it is amazing. To me it is very snake like.

If Romney wins, then he can say he won with minimal input.

If Romney loses, he is going to say that it was because he didn't try that hard, and it doesn't matter anyways since the other top contenders did not participate, and the results are meaning less.

I think it also says that his fund raising is going badly.


--Dustan