View Full Version : The campaign doesn't end until November 4th; whiners please read.

01-07-2008, 09:36 PM
I see a lot of posts by users on this forum about how if we don't take 2nd in NH and if we don't take 1st in SC and if we don't then the campaign is over and we should all go home. I just want to say to all of you... step back... take a deep breath, and look at this in the [B]big picture. There are multiple paths to the presidency, and November 4th is a long ways off.

Path #1 - Win the nomination: non-brokered
Everybody wants this of course as it's the fastest route to winning; the idea being that we somehow generate a lot of momentum with big wins in early states and all of the sudden everybody falls in love with Dr. Paul and we wrap this thing up. I wont say this isn't a possible route to the presidency, but if you look at what's happening out there, not just to Ron Paul but all of the candidates, you start to see that this whole theory is pretty much not going to work for anyone.

Huckabee got very little boost from his Iowa win, he is unpalatable to voters in the Northeast and on the West coast, but the Bible belt loves him so he's going to get more delegates before this thing is over. Rudy is still a force to be reckoned with in the Northeast and California, and he will take delegates for that especially in New York. If Rudy doesn't take them, John McCain will, they are interchangable. Romney is still in this thing, he is not going to drop out anytime soon, he will consistently fight for 2nd place finishes in many many states. Ron Paul falls into a similar category (think about dem/indy supporters in open primary states like Wisconsin voting for Dr. Paul if Obama sweeps feb 5th). Thompson is an unknown. But when you look at all of this and the way the primary schedule is packed, you start to see that the possibility of one candidate getting 50% of the delegates is very far-fetched. The odds of a brokered convention are high.

Path #2 - Win the nomination: brokered
Thanks to a bit of luck with the democratic race being done with early, and thanks to continued efforts by RP supporters to stay in the game, Ron Paul rolls into the brokered convention with plenty of delegates and is a credible player. The media coverage surrounding the Ron Paul delegates and what they will do at the convention will be insane, and people will discuss how we are basically the only GOP candidate competing for the same voting bloc as Obama. Ron Paul delegates make the case at the convention that Ron Paul is the only candidate capable of keeping the Reagan coalition alive while also being able to play with Obama for young voters and Independents. Our biggest competition would probably be Romney.

Path #3 - third-party
Yes I know, Ron Paul has stated that he has no intention of doing this. But he has also said things like [paraphrased] "As long as my supporters fund my campaign I'll stay in", and "not 100% but 99.9%" as well as other sentimental comments about how he'll continue to fight for us. Allow me to throw out a scenario where a third-party run could happen.

Ron Paul wins at least 15% of delegates by the time 45+ states have voted and it looks like we're going to a brokered convention.

Supporters organize the biggest money-bomb in the history of elections, centered around a 3rd party bid for the whitehouse. People from across the nation, even those who do not support Ron Paul, join in on the effort because they want to see a viable third-party run for the good of the country. This money-bomb acts as a signal from us to the rest of the nation that we want Paul to go third party and to give us a voice in the general election.

Ron Paul spins a story to the media that he did not recieve a fair shake in the primaries (debate exclusions), his supporters have spoken from their hearts that they want him to continue, and that he wont stand for "back-room deals" [read brokered convention] disenfranchising millions of voters in our great nation.

He declares an independent run.

General election:
Republican vs. Obama vs. Paul: the country is in recession.

Paul wins votes for his strength on the economy, his palatable position on abortion [to both sides], his unique foreign policy, strong positions on immigration, unique stances on small government / federalism and personal freedom, and his rock solid record and upstanding integrity.

Paul manages to get into the debates because we live in the age of Youtube and because the media will absolutely love pushing such an exciting narrative in the 24 hour news cycle.