Why we NEED 2nd place in NH or better...

[ColdSoul]

I know I have been seeing some people say that a 3rd place run by Ron Paul in NH would be ok, and I don't think it will.

Recently while starting my canvassing in California in my local precient I have noticed that a lot of the "old school republicans" ones that have voted in the past 10+ primarys think that "Ron Paul has no chance". I got some to perk up a bit when I mentioned he beat Rudy by 7% (10% to 3%) but they still said they wouldn't vote for him unless he got at least 2nd in NH.

I think that a lot of the "old school republicans" won't vote him on Super Tuesday unless he gets at least 2nd in NH. And like it or not we need these people to vote for Ron Paul along with the young/new/independent vote for Ron Paul to win.

So please anyone who can do anything to make NH a little bit more of a higher turn out for Ron Paul please do it today and tomorrow. Trust me the rest of the states have your back and will do anything we can to help, and will be using your hard work to carry Ron Paul into super tuesday as the most voted for Republican in 08!

[hueylong]

Stop these kind of stupid posts re: the expectations game.

[Jordan]

We dont need second, we need first.

You dont win an election by coming in second. We need some victories and NH is a prime state.

[hueylong]

You have no idea what you're talking about. 3rd in NH would be HUGE.

You've never worked in a campaign, and you know nothing about Presidential politics.

Stop trying to pontificate.

[szczebrzeszyn]

Stop these kind of stupid posts re: the expectations game.

+1

[d_goddard]

You have no idea what you're talking about. 3rd in NH would be HUGE.

^THIS
+1

Really, I would feel good about 4th in NH. For lots of reasons. 3rd would be dace-naked-on-the-rooftops time

[ColdSoul]

This is my first post re:expecatations. I have thought all along we would win NH because of the live free or die project, but I just wanted to try and encourage everyone in the area to do anything they can in that area to help Ron Paul get 2nd (or 1st would be better)

A 1st or 2nd place in NH will multiply his vote by a good factor in other states on super Tuesday.

[Elwar]

I was going to post this tomorrow after votes are already going in but...

I think 4th is not a bad place to be at this stage.

At 4th it shows that we are gaining ground (we'll need 3rd, then 2nd then 1st after that).

These initial states are meaningless when it comes to delegates, they're just a perception thing.

Super Tuesday is the day when Ron Paul needs to come in 1st in as many states as possible. He needs to win the big states like Texas and California and as many Super Tuesday states as possible. If that happens we win.

If he comes in better than 4th tomorrow he is a real threat, not only will the attacks become too much for some of the fair weather folks to handle (you've seen their whining posts already) it may cause one or two of the neo-cons to drop out. If the neo-cons aren't all present on Super Tuesday the vote won't be spread out enough for us. We can't go head to head with a single front runner in a pro-war Republican Party.

If he comes in better than 4th I'll be elated but I'll be preparing for a tough 3 weeks. I hope people are prepared for the fury of Ron Paul being under attack and under the microscope in a more severe way than Huckabee has been under for the past month.

[Gimme Some Truth]

Momentum is important. Im not getting my expectations up . I expect 4th/5th and hope for 3rd.

As already stated, 3rd would be huge.


.

[dvictr]

we must place ahead of at least 2 other candidates... then the coverage on FOX about them MUST include Ron Paul

[ronpaulitician]

A second-place finish would do the campaign a lot of good, but I'm not sure it's an absolute must. I think we need 15%, and then in South Carolina we'll need about 20%.

[RevolutionSD]

I'd be happy with 4th and 14%+ in votes. This would be an improvement over Iowa, and all I expect is for us to consistently improve.

I'd be THRILLED with 3rd place, and 2nd I think I'd pass out.

If he WINS NH I will drink myself into a stupor for a week! J/K :eek:

[Dave Wood]

All we really need is more VOTERS and money. Marathon, not a sprint:)

[RickyJ]

This is my first post re:expecatations. I have thought all along we would win NH because of the live free or die project, but I just wanted to try and encourage everyone in the area to do anything they can in that area to help Ron Paul get 2nd (or 1st would be better)

A 1st or 2nd place in NH will multiply his vote by a good factor in other states on super Tuesday.

I agree with you. He has to get at least second in NH to win the nomination. Third will keep him in the race but won't give him the nomination. It's do or die time folks. It's now or never. We need to pray for Ron Paul's campaign today and tomorrow.

[NerveShocker]

I'd be happy with 4th and 14%+ in votes. This would be an improvement over Iowa, and all I expect is for us to consistently improve.

I'd be THRILLED with 3rd place, and 2nd I think I'd pass out.

If he WINS NH I will drink myself into a stupor for a week! J/K :eek:

Exactly my thinking... lol I'm hoping for third but not gonna get hopes too high.

[Carole]

Anything below third and NO MEDIA at all....

3nd place. MEDIA will concentrate on top two as already is evident. Occasional mention. No poll results mentioned.

2nd place-MEDIA CANNOT ignore him. Poll results mentioned.

1st Place. MEDIA may actually be forced to say something positive. A few may even push him-NOT) Dr. Paul, will you now be running in both the Republican and 3rd Party? :eek:

Wow! Run in two parties would be a first. :D :D:D LOL

[nimo]

1 star

[quickmike]

You knuckleheads that are saying "we need 1st or 2nd to keep thing going" are just setting yourselves up for a big letdown if he doesnt get it. I dont care what he places, im still going to support him no matter what. Its better to set your expectations low and work your ass off to make them better than to set them high just to be let down if you dont make it.

All the polls show him getting 3rd possibly in NH, the same polls that showed him getting 5th in Iowa. The polls arent off as many of you would like to think. If he beats the expectations and predictions, GREAT. Just dont expect too much. Its not going to help do anything except get you all depressed if it doesnt happen.

Just keep working at it and live with the results.

[Original_Intent]

I'd be happy with 4th and 14%+ in votes. This would be an improvement over Iowa, and all I expect is for us to consistently improve.

I'd be THRILLED with 3rd place, and 2nd I think I'd pass out.

If he WINS NH I will drink myself into a stupor for a week! J/K :eek:

If he wins NH, I expect a LOT of babies to born ~nine months from now, and the boys will ALL be named Ron! :D

[LFOD]

We've got a shot at 3rd. Since GOP voters are not settling decisively behind one candidate, NH is not do or die for anyone. If we could show improvement in beating Thompson AND Giuliani, that would be enough. I just don't see Ron Paul explosively becoming the front runner overnight. Our best shot is to just keep building and building until we get a breakthrough.

[jd603]

We don't need first or second, just third... even then we still keep kicking.

I doubt he'll do worse than third though anyway.



I know I have been seeing some people say that a 3rd place run by Ron Paul in NH would be ok, and I don't think it will.

Recently while starting my canvassing in California in my local precient I have noticed that a lot of the "old school republicans" ones that have voted in the past 10+ primarys think that "Ron Paul has no chance". I got some to perk up a bit when I mentioned he beat Rudy by 7% (10% to 3%) but they still said they wouldn't vote for him unless he got at least 2nd in NH.

I think that a lot of the "old school republicans" won't vote him on Super Tuesday unless he gets at least 2nd in NH. And like it or not we need these people to vote for Ron Paul along with the young/new/independent vote for Ron Paul to win.

So please anyone who can do anything to make NH a little bit more of a higher turn out for Ron Paul please do it today and tomorrow. Trust me the rest of the states have your back and will do anything we can to help, and will be using your hard work to carry Ron Paul into super tuesday as the most voted for Republican in 08!

[orion846]

2nd isnt possible idiots. blind ambition with no realistic expectations doesn't serve anyone. 3rd place would be AWESOME and HUGE MEDIA - 4th would be very respectable. 2nd and 1rst in NH isn't attainable and isn't necessary. RP just needs to slowly convince the nation he's viable, which 3rd, and to a lesser but still serious degree 4th, would accomplish.

this sensationalist shit coming from people who know nothing about the political arena isn't helping anyone. i'm not a "troll" cus i know and say he wont come in 1-2, i'm a realist, and doing more good than you are.

[roversaurus]

THIRD place is a win for us.

4th place is good.

2nd place means that we will win the nomination.

I said this before Iowa when folks were blathering about 2nd and 1st place.

It's the same again. If we get 3rd we have done awesome. It would be HUGE
for us.

If we get 4th it is still pretty good for us.

[justatrey]

Please stop setting yourselves up for disappointment again. First and second place are realistically impossible.

Third place should be the goal like last time, because with a HUGE turnout it is possible. This would be a huge victory for the campaign. Realize that going from fifth to third is big progress and noone within the campaign would be upset about it. With an above average turnout, we can secure fourth.

Turnout was around 17% last time among Ron Paul supporters (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=79693). If we don't improve, it looks like a fifth place is very likely.

[RickyJ]

THIRD place is a win for us.


2nd place means that we will win the nomination.



2nd place will be very good, but it alone won't win the nomination. Even 1st place won't guarantee the nomination. Pat Robertson won NH then got labeled a Nazi by the media and his campaign went down hill from there.

Unfortunately we really are in a a kind of do or die situation here. Ron Paul needs to do very well tomorrow to be seen as a viable candidate by the sheeple.

[CJP]

(Disclaimer: These are just my opinions, based on following politics since '72 and working on some campaigns. I'm not trying to raise unrealistic expectations here (quite the opposite) -- I'm just talking about what we need tomorrow.)

Third would indeed be huge -- huge for the movement and the message -- but not huge enough to propel Ron's momentum to where it needs to be to have a realistic chance of winning the nomination.

Why? The cold, hard reality is that for the vast majority of voters, the media chatter about the "horserace" is the decisive factor that determines whom they consider to be a viable candidate. They then choose from among those they consider viable. (See the recent thread about the NH landlord, for example. This is how most people operate.)

On the media side it, this is not so much ideological censorship (with the exception of Fox) as it is the media following their tired old formula: They take early polls (where the winners are determined by name recognition). They cover the people that do well in these polls, reinforcing the name recognition. They take more polls. Repeat.

They only thing that can break into this cycle is a win or surprising second-place in a "scientific" poll or, better yet, in a primary or caucus. Without the media behind you, this takes a huge on-the-ground effort. And this effort must be targeted to "average Joes" for it to result in effective numbers. The only people who've been able to pull this off in recent history are social-conservatives supported by evangelicals, such as Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan(who succeeded with a populist, culture-war message), and now Mike Huckabee. The evangelicals, through churches and other existing networks, are well suited to do this.

Unfortunately, Ron Paul has never broken through this "viability barrier" in the public eye. The only way he can do so at this point to pull off an absolute shocker. The (small "l") libertarians will have to do for Ron what the evangelicals have done for those culture warriors. If it can't be done in NH, with an existing libertarian base and the OLFoD effort, it can't be done -- at least in this election cycle.

In my opinion, the media will not jump on board if Ron gets 3rd with something like 15%. He will get some kudos, but they will focus on McCain, Romney (assuming they are 1 & 2) and those doing well in the national polls, period. Ron must get at least second place in an early state and do well elsewhere in order to have a shot on Super Tuesday.

Looking at the opposition's situation, though, Ron's five opponents have now all been, at one time or another, declared by the media to have a good chance of winning the nomination. They don't have to have big wins in NH or SC to get media coverage going into Super Tuesday.

Bottom line: For this election, it all comes down to New Hampshire.

But the movement will go on and grow regardless of what happens in 2008. And we will have Ron Paul's campaign to thank for it. In that sense, we have already won.