NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTIONS Here are mine, what are yours???

[Politicallore]

Here are mine...
http://www.politicallore.com/election-2008/new-hampshire-republican-primary-predictions/

What are yours???

Please digg, if you like the post!

It is all up to us now, no more complaining about the campaign... We have less than 24 hours... Let's do this...

[bp2519]

As per the new lewrockwell.com blog post:

The new CNN/WMUR poll has Paul at 10%:

McCain 32%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 10%
Hunter 1%
Thompson 1%
Someone else 2%
No opinion 5%

More interesting, however, is the radical shift in the independent vote. 49% of independents plan on voting in the GOP primary (on 5 - 6 Jan), up from 44% on 4 - 5 Jan and 37% on 27 - 30 Dec. This is the exact opposite of what the pundits predicted would happen if Obama won Iowa: the conventional wisdom was that if Obama won Iowa to make New Hampshire competetive, independents would flock to the democratic primary to support Obama. And with independents in New Hampshire strongly opposed to the War in Iraq, I don't think they're flocking to John "100-years in Iraq" McCain.

[RonPaulFTFW]

Predicting Ron Paul’s showing is nearly impossible, he could poll as high as 25% if everything happened as planned. Ron Paul is only receiving 8-11% of Republican supporters. It all rides on whether or not he can convince people who have never voted and people who crossed over to vote for him. I have received myself, four calls from the Ron Paul campaign urging me to vote, reminding me to vote, and urging me to bring friends.

[sean43]

Always made me wonder why the polls indicate McCain when the majority of the population want out of Iraq!?

[RedLightning]

I think Ron Paul could get as high as 20% to as low as 11%.

[dw1345]

3rd or 4th

[hazek]

Btw how does the media report the results during a primary? Do they have a whole day coverage or just after that polls close?

[Politicallore]

Btw how does the media report the results during a primary? Do they have a whole day coverage or just after that polls close?

They need to wait... But they report exit polls all day long

[slantedview]

my prediction is that the NH voters will decide :)

[Naraku]

I think Paul gets around 15% and makes third. John McCain probably wins by a few shaves, but Romney stays legitimate because of Michigan and Nevada.

[Primbs]

Rush was attacking Huckabee alot today. That may count for a three to ten percent drop in the polls for Huckabee in New Hampshire.

[DanK]

I'm guessing third with something around 15%, and I would be very surprised (and disappointed) if we got worse than fourth.

[hazek]

They need to wait... But they report exit polls all day long

Wouldn't it be a super tactic to get everyone to the polls as fast as posible to create a higher result for Ron and maybe motivate more voters to vote for him?!?!

[Menthol Patch]

I'm certain we will get at least 15%.

[NeoconPaulsupporter]

I'm going to say 4th.

[shane2]

In Iowa we got 10% and beat Rudy.

In New Hampshire tomorrow, I'll be thrilled if we, at least, get 15% and beat both Rudy and Thompson.

We want more, we are aiming higher, of course, but we are still firmly on the right track if we at least do the above, IMO.

- Shane

[Menthol Patch]

These are the reasons I think we will do better in NH.

1) I think the people there are more Libertarian.

2) There are more independents.

3) There is a big grassroots base in NH.

4) I think Ron Paul in the ABC debate won at least a percent or two.

My guess is that we will have at least 15%.

[RevolutionSD]

I'm going with a solid 3rd and 15% for Paul. And I WILL be VERY happy with this kind of result!

[Marsharks]

This is easy, Ron gets 5th in New Hampshire because most of the supporters are in Ron Paul forums instead of calling registered voters.

[Politicallore]

http://www.sos.nh.gov/polling.htm

[Dave Pedersen]

Strong third with 17%

[jmbrewr]

NH prediction
Huckabee
Paul
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Hunter
Thompson
I won't guess on the percentage because we're being fed all sort of false data. I know that Romney, Mccain, and Guiliani won't place 1st Huckabee has the advantage in NH because he has been spitting Paul rhetoric.
When it comes to the MSM we know McCain doesn't have the independents because if he did it wouldn't be told over and over that he did. Their trying to convince NH that McCain will be the winner. At our caucus every independent and undecided went to Paul. hands down. If Paul is being polled that close to Guiliani you can believe that he'll over take him. Romney is a mormon Bottomline: I'm sure they like the mormons knockin on their doors about as much as Iowans do lol!!! In Iowa, Huckabee really seemed to be the frontrunner, He will be the man to beat.

[Politicallore]

I really do not like how in the debate... Huckabee just seems to copy everything, that gets Ron Paul support

[mdf1960]

3rd with 18% of the vote

[FluffyUnbound]

6th.

It sucks, but there it is.

Right now I'm just rooting for Hillary to come back and for the general to be Hillary vs. Huck the Hick. That's the best scenario for a Paul 3rd party bid.

We just ran out of time. If we had another 10 months, we might be able to do something. The right combination of major party candidates in the general election would give us that ten months.

[Ronin]

6th.



That's what I've trained myself to expect. I'll never be disappointed :D We should all do the same. Try for 1st expect last.

[damon04]

Paul 32%
McCain 28%
Romney 20%
Guiliani 9%
Huckabee 8%
Thompson 2%
margin +/- 1%

Man I hope... ^^ just being optimistic..

[patawa91]

I hear ya, but man I think that is a tad too optimistic. I am leaning to 3rd with 2nd being incredible.

[bgoldwater]

5th.

[Politicallore]

Paul 32%
McCain 28%
Romney 20%
Guiliani 9%
Huckabee 8%
Thompson 2%
margin +/- 1%

Man I hope... ^^ just being optimistic..

well it is up to us...

[d_goddard]

4th

[Beyond Good & Evil]

Romney 28%
McCain 25%
Paul 21%
Guiliani 11%
Huckabee 9%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 3%

If Ron Paul doesn't pull out a first place miracle, I'm rooting for Romney to upend McCain. We need him in this for as long as possible to dilute the faux-conservative vote.

[Politicallore]

4th

Really???

[jake]

Third 17%

[Andrew-Austin]

2nd 19-21%

[Politicallore]

2nd 19-21%

I could see that,
But 3rd still would be nice :)

[rasheedwallace]

not bad, 19%...

[hasan]

3rd if people turn up

[justatrey]

McCain 35%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 13%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 2%
Hunter 1%

Its all about turnout. I think we've got Giuliani, catching Huck will be the big challenge.

[idrake]

Sadly, 5th... My faith in people is diminishing...If I have to see one more asshole on TV saying they like Mitt Romney because he's a good leader, I'm going to puke.

Being so close to MA, no one in NH should have any doubt that Mitt is the biggest double talker out there. He brags about his health care plan that FINES citizens for NOT buying coverage. Somehow it's OK because you can buy insurance from private companies...Great.

When the government forces you to buy a goods and services from private corporations, is that fascism or communism.

[shagywashere]

Ron Paul Will Get 2nd Or 1st!

[hasan]

it all depends on turnout. 4th or 3rd depending on turnout

[hankpyro]

I should be sleeping right now but I am hooked. Have to meet my coordinator in 5+ hours and start poll checking in 6 hours.

I would explain more but I am prssed for time.

1. Romney: 30%
2. DOCTOR PAUL: 20-25%
3. McCain: 20-25%
4. Rude-y.
5. Huckleberry
6. Mr. concession speech.

[N13]

Here are mine...
http://www.politicallore.com/election-2008/new-hampshire-republican-primary-predictions/

What are yours???

Please digg, if you like the post!

It is all up to us now, no more complaining about the campaign... We have less than 24 hours... Let's do this...

I like your scenario.

[N13]

We have to get a higher prcentage than in Iowa. This is important and I'm counting on it.

RP scores well with the independents and there are lots of them.

The other Republican candidates suck ass.

15% minimum to 25% maximum.

Third Place above the Ghoul, Thompson, and Huckabee would be a huge success. Anything better is bonus. Not beating out Huckster would hurt.

[Thrice]

Do we find out the results for NH at a similar time as Iowa? I know some areas have already begun voting so I'm curious since I won't be home again until around 10pm tonight.

[Politicallore]

Do we find out the results for NH at a similar time as Iowa? I know some areas have already begun voting so I'm curious since I won't be home again until around 10pm tonight.

You maybe able to get clips of "exit polls"... but towns have to wait till all votes are cast before they can report or until polls are closed...
Results may start coming in as soon as 8:00, with a few before that...

[thisisgiparti]

17% right now. let's keep it up and push for second!

[Yom]

My prediction (popular vote):

McCain 30%
Romney 25%
Paul 15%
Huckabee 13%
Giuliani 11%
Thompson 4%
Hunter 1%
Someone else 1%


Like RedLightning said, though, we could get anywhere between 11% & 20%.

[jacmicwag]

If the polls are correct, we're looking at 5th with a shot at Number 4. As long as we beat at least one major candidate and stay double figures, we move on in decent shape.

[mokkan88]

McCain 28%
Romney 27%
Paul 20%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 3%

[Ron Paul Fan]

12% and hopefully 4th ahead of Giuliani.

[Yom]

6th.

It sucks, but there it is.

Right now I'm just rooting for Hillary to come back and for the general to be Hillary vs. Huck the Hick. That's the best scenario for a Paul 3rd party bid.

We just ran out of time. If we had another 10 months, we might be able to do something. The right combination of major party candidates in the general election would give us that ten months.

Well, I'm almost willing to bet every cent in my pocket that we'll beat Duncan Hunter and Fred "Oh shit - he's dumb as hell" Thompson, but it is possible that we come in behind Giuliani and Huckabee, though I think we'll beat Giuliani and could upset Huckabee as well.

You're being too pessimistic, though (my prediction has RP in third, but it's a very optimistic hope mixed with a rational guess). Haven't you seen how important momentum is? Huckabee really came out of nowhere to destroy Romney in Iowa over the last month or two, and McCain's "surge" in the polls was orchestrated by the Media in just the past 2 weeks. He's now not only the likely winner of NH from being dead in the water (low single digits nationally and single digits in even NH, I think), to even being described as the general Republican frontrunner!

Don't underestimate the power of momentum (and the media). It's still winnable, but it'll take a lot of hard work and a bit of luck!

[hopeful]

1ST 27%

........or least 2ND 21% of vote

McCain screwed himself with the 100 year quote, and New Hampshire loves an underdog ! This is RED SOX country.

[Politicallore]

1ST 27%

........or least 2ND 21% of vote

McCain screwed himself with the 100 year quote, and New Hampshire loves an underdog ! This is RED SOX country.

You know what the scary thing is...
I was talking to my gf's dad and told him about the mccain comment (he is a supporter) and he said "bull-$#@!, if you can show me him saying that then I will vote for Ron Paul" (because i am relentless) So I showed him... his response... "you know what... I agree with him... I agree with him 100%"

I basically, blew up.

[Hangly Man]

Ron Paul for the win.

I understand people not wanting to be too optimistic after Iowa. But c'mon, this is New Hampshire. This is Ron Paul country!

[Jobarra]

You know what the scary thing is...
I was talking to my gf's dad and told him about the mccain comment (he is a supporter) and he said "bull-$#@!, if you can show me him saying that then I will vote for Ron Paul" (because i am relentless) So I showed him... his response... "you know what... I agree with him... I agree with him 100%"

I basically, blew up.
my reply would most likely have been "You know, I can now see why you like McCain so much. Both of you believe your word doesn't mean a thing."

[chrismatthews]

13%, 4th place behing huckleberry. Unfortunately the MSM's "gut out the vote" effort is stronger than ours.

[Hangly Man]

Paul will NOT place behind Huck. Not even in backwards Bizarro-land on opposite day.