Blogger: RP will not place second at Ames

[Bradley in DC]

http://www.iowavoice.com/2007/07/19/ron-paul-will-not-place-second-in-ames/

This guy also said Dr. Paul would be out in a few weeks after "blowback" comment!

[jblosser]

There are several pieces like this starting to show up; the gist being that it doesn't matter where he places, the Iowa Straw Poll is now to be considered irrelevant.

This obviously means they think he has a good chance, and are worried about it. It also means that when he comes in 1st or 2nd we won't see the MSM coverage we had hoped for, but maybe they'll be dumb and report the "non event" with this spin. That will still get name recognition. Any publicity is good publicity.

[IRO-bot]

I honestly beleive with all these large states moving their primary forward that it truly is an effort to make any candidate that is not an instant "Name recognized Top-tier" a nobody. In effect if the media doesn't cover you before you declare you have no chance to ever win. It's sad.

[rich34]

If that is indeed the case, then to me as long as he has a strong showing in the republican primary's and gets his name out there I think he could run very strongly as the libertarian candidate. I know he said that he wouldn't do that, but it could possibly be the perfect storm if he does not win the repub. nomination.

[Bradley in DC]

I honestly beleive with all these large states moving their primary forward that it truly is an effort to make any candidate that is not an instant "Name recognized Top-tier" a nobody. In effect if the media doesn't cover you before you declare you have no chance to ever win. It's sad.

That may be the effect, but the purpose is for the states to get in on all the attention the early ones have had.

[Slugg]

What is the deal with these types of articles? Does anyone think the Iowa Straw Poll has actually lost it's importance?

[jblosser]

What is the deal with these types of articles? Does anyone think the Iowa Straw Poll has actually lost it's importance?

Who is "anyone"? The MSM doesn't report what they "actually think", they report the spin they think they need. The public doesn't get the data to form an opinion.

Iowa has been around forever though so it remains to be seen if the spin will work or not. I think that even if people buy the spin they'll still hear the name and be curious, which is a win for us any day.

The only way they'll be able to turn this in their favor is if they just don't report anything and the public is too busy watching Cops to notice and go looking. Or, of course, if Dr. Paul doesn't do well, in which case Iowa will suddenly be relevant again and we'll probably never convince anyone else he has a chance.

[Original_Intent]

Gee, maybe Ron Paul has not been so dumb about not putting all his eggs in the Iowa basket.

If he wins or does well it will be treated as irrelevant. If he does poorly, it will be held up to show that he is indeed fringe.

The same goes for the online polls - In every one that Ron Paul has dominated, it was written off to spammers - but if they had one online poll that Ron Paul got clobbered in, that would be the one that was determined to be "legit" and they would point out that THIS poll had code to guard against multiple voting (yeah they all did, but they would imply otherwise).

Don't put ALL you hopes on Iowa, yes keep working for success there, but don't be devastated whatever happens.

As far as Ron Paul running third party. He NEVER said he WOULD NOT do it, he was asked about it and he said "No, that is certainly not sometihing we have considered." And he was asked if he would run independent, not third party.

That may seem like splitting hairs, and maybe he really has no intention of continuing on if he doesn't get the nomination. But you have got to realize that when he was asked that question if he had said "Yes, if I don't get the nomination I will make an independent run or third party run" at that point his run as a GOP nominee would be OVER. I definitely felt that his answer was much more of a "that is not something that is on our radar yet, and haven't given it any thought" more than a "No I would not do it".

[jblosser]

I almost wonder if one of his main Iowa strategies is simply to win the crowd over at the speeches beforehand. That's always been his strongest position; it's why the campaign took off so much after the Rudy debacle, and why he wins the debate polls.

It's certainly cost-effective if it works.