AgentPaul001
01-06-2008, 02:06 PM
I'm really starting to doubt the quality of ARG polls. I have to admit that I was pleased when they showed Paul with 10% in Iowa heading up to the Christmas weekend, however their latest New Hampshire polls are so out of whack with the other outlets its insane.
Normally I'd take a few minutes to "determine" the average variance of the polls but its roughly 3 Points for the CNN/Suffolk/Concord polls (some of the biggest ones). These are all for January 4th/5th and I won't include Rasmussen since they are fairly controversial as well, although their numbers lineup with the average as well.
ARG though is more then DOUBLE the average variance.
Average of the Polls:
32%......39% ARG - McCain
29%......25% ARG - Romney
10%......14% ARG - Huckabee
10%......6% ARG - Guliani
9%........6% ARG - Paul
Thompson is neglible.
What I noticed is that Rasmussen's numbers are where things "seem" to be heading. McCain is obviously expeirencing a momentum bump, Romney is dropping hard, Huckabee is definitely getting a second look and Guliani is falling. I don't think Paul is shedding any supporters (He had the highest retention rate over 83% according to CNN).
Seems to be like this is an issue of "likely" voters. I think that the same methods used to determine likely caucusgoers and voters that we hammer on so often, aren't being used as effectively at ARG and thats why the candidates numbers are so much more flexible. Basically its what the "masses" think and not necessarily what the voting population is thinking.
What do you guys think?
Normally I'd take a few minutes to "determine" the average variance of the polls but its roughly 3 Points for the CNN/Suffolk/Concord polls (some of the biggest ones). These are all for January 4th/5th and I won't include Rasmussen since they are fairly controversial as well, although their numbers lineup with the average as well.
ARG though is more then DOUBLE the average variance.
Average of the Polls:
32%......39% ARG - McCain
29%......25% ARG - Romney
10%......14% ARG - Huckabee
10%......6% ARG - Guliani
9%........6% ARG - Paul
Thompson is neglible.
What I noticed is that Rasmussen's numbers are where things "seem" to be heading. McCain is obviously expeirencing a momentum bump, Romney is dropping hard, Huckabee is definitely getting a second look and Guliani is falling. I don't think Paul is shedding any supporters (He had the highest retention rate over 83% according to CNN).
Seems to be like this is an issue of "likely" voters. I think that the same methods used to determine likely caucusgoers and voters that we hammer on so often, aren't being used as effectively at ARG and thats why the candidates numbers are so much more flexible. Basically its what the "masses" think and not necessarily what the voting population is thinking.
What do you guys think?