GA poll, Paul at 0%

[Bradley in DC]

http://www.insideradvantage.com/restricted/July%2007/7-16-07/gapoll.php

Republican presidential primary:

(Fred) Thompson: 36%
Giuliani: 22%
McCain: 10%
Romney: 9%
Huckabee: 7%
Gilmore*: 2%
Brownback: 1%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 12%

* Poll conducted prior to Gilmore announcement of leaving the race.

Cross tabs available here:

http://insideradvantagegeorgia.com/July%20GA%20Pres%20Poll.pdf

Paul got ZERO support.
Gilmore got 100% of the Hispanic support (no idea).

[MozoVote]

I truly belive polls are meaningless when an undeclared candidate leads. That just proves that a large block of voters is "hoping for the perfect candidate"

[Give me liberty]

Fred Thompson: 36%? I wonder, well i guess i know because hes an actor.

And why do you guys always waste time on these faked media owned polls anyway?

I am sure and i hope ron paul will win.

[Oddball]

What's the margin of error??

[james1844]

Hi All,

There's been a lot of discussion on the board about bias in the polls or the polls not accurately reflecting the proportion of young people who support Dr. Paul.

Before I went back to grad school, I worked for a survey research organization that did polling. For the better part of two years I ran data for studies which used similar data collection methods as are utilized in most of the polls. Provided that the polling has a sufficiently large number of people questioned (e.g. more than 100) and uses random sampling methods, the polls should be assumed to be correct.

Now, given that Dr. Paul is polling at 3% nationwide, we obviously have more work to do to get the message out.

That said, we should not be discouraged. Instead, we should consider what that 3% means. There are currently 302 million people in the United States. This suggests that over 9 million Americans support Dr. Paul for president. Nine million. Thats an awful lot.

Now, back to work!

Best,

James H.

[DAZ]

What's the margin of error??

100% + or - a few

[DAZ]

Hi All,

There's been a lot of discussion on the board about bias in the polls or the polls not accurately reflecting the proportion of young people who support Dr. Paul.

Before I went back to grad school, I worked for a survey research organization that did polling. For the better part of two years I ran data for studies which used similar data collection methods as are utilized in most of the polls. Provided that the polling has a sufficiently large number of people questioned (e.g. more than 100) and uses random sampling methods, the polls should be assumed to be correct.

Here's my problem. I think your reasoning is correct only in so far as the sample called will actually be participating in the election--without leaving out other statistically significant elements of the population that will participate in this election. I know that usually lists of past voters are used, and I do not believe that those lists accurately capture people likely to vote for Ron Paul. Therefore, while the polls may correctly capture Ron Paul's current support among the people called, I do not think the sample of people called accurately captures the population of people who will vote in the upcoming election. I'm sure you've heard all the reasons why this may be true, so I won't list them unless you need me to.

[Oddball]

100% + or - a few
hehehehehehehehehehehe.....:D

[WannaBfree]

we should consider what that 3% means. There are currently 302 million people in the United States. This suggests that over 9 million Americans support Dr. Paul for president. Nine million. Thats an awful lot.

What's 0% mean then?

[Oddball]

The 0% means that it could be 0%, or as high as the margin of error in the sample taken.

[DjLoTi]

Thompson has a HUGE support base in GA. For some reason, people in GA love him. I don't know why.

However, this is the state that elected Newt.

[WannaBfree]

To people interested in these polls, please listen to what Dr. Paul has to say about polls in this
audio interview:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/opinionshop/detail?blogid=42&entry_id=18531
(it's around at -33.00)

[DAZ]

Thompson is a Southerner. Believe me, that's a big deal. We just don't trust you meddlin' yanks!:)

I'm not sure what the consensus is on Newt here. He's one of those guys you either love or hate. Hell, even I still thought he'd be a pretty good candidate up until a few months ago. However, I guarantee that he would lose the general election if he got the Republican nomination. Wouldn't matter who the Dem was.

Side note, Newt was my Congressman back in the day. I was a bit under the voting age back then, but I'd be shocked if my parents hadn't voted for him.

[Oddball]

But Thompson isn't any more a "southerner" than is Algore.

He's been a District of Criminals insider since at least Nixon.

[DAZ]

Didn't you know? Politics is about appearances.

He grew up and went to school in Tennessee and Alabama. The rest is just details.

[Oddball]

Appearences can be deceiving....Just like Bubba and Algore were.

[WannaBfree]

S'cuse me again but I think this is a much better measurement of Ron Paul's growing popularity. It's waaay different from most of the polls we've seen.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=7880


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v367/twogunkitten/Picture6.jpg


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v367/twogunkitten/Picture5.jpg

[DAZ]

It is probably a very good measure of his growing popularity. Unfortunately, it in no way represents a statistically measurable sample with regards to how the general population will vote. But it is a good sign.

[WannaBfree]

Someone should do an internet poll if that's possible. Or one calling cell phone numbers. They're voters too. In the post debate internet or text-messaging polls, RP fared very well. I don't know what percent of total voters in America is on the internet and/or are cell phone users without landline phones. But if it is a significant number, the campaign would be doing better than these conventional polls reflect.

[Kregener]

Polls show that 3 out of every 4 persons make up 75% of the people.

Polls are manipulated constantly to reflect what the desired outcome was pre-determined in some smoky back-room at power broker headquarters.

[freelance]

I'm not usually one to scream, "The polls are rigged, the polls are rigged!"

Cobb County (Atlanta area) had a straw poll over the Fourth. Here is the link, and below it the results:

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2007/07/05/a_fourth_of_july_straw_poll_fo.html

Fred Thompson: 30 percent;

Ron Paul: 17 percent

Mitt Romney: 15 percent

Mike Huckabee: 13 percent

Newt Gingrich: 12 percent

Rudy Giuliani: 10 percent

John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore: 1 percent

WHAT is wrong with this picture?