Peace&Freedom
01-06-2008, 11:04 AM
Some thoughts towards forging a soberly optimistic view of what will (or should) happen on Tuesday and after. I like this breakdown by AceNZ from another post about the favorable factors in NH:
1. NH has the highest number of campaign donors per capita of any state in the US
2. HQ and the grassroots are much more organized in NH than they were in Iowa
3. NH has a large number of independent voters. Polls in Iowa showed RP was getting something like 26% of independents there.
4. Press coverage has been better in NH than in Iowa
5. The things that are important to people in NH are more in-line with RP than they were with Iowans (at least as articulated in the press and commercials). Iowa is full of farmers who love their subsidies, for example. The NH state slogan is "Live Free or Die".
6. Dr Paul spent a lot more time in NH than in IA
7. Iowans pick corn. NH picks Presidents.
Once more, let's take emotions out the mix ahead of time, and bottom line four things we want out of New Hampshire. We hope:
1. Paul finishes third or higher.
2. If it's a choice between McCain and Romney for first, that McCain wins.
3. That Paul is in double digits, preferably in the high teens or 20's.
4. That independents show up for Paul.
Here, one more time, is a possible master plan to a Paul nomination victory. I still think a 3rd party run should be mounted on top of his GOP effort, to win the latter:
Opening Game---Paul wins or places strong in a couple of the early primaries, to demonstrate he is a player and can win. The other contenders block each other from gaining initial momentum or establishing themselves as 'inevitable'. As in: Huckabee checks Romney and Thompson blunts McCain in IA, McCain blocks Romney in NH, but Romney in turn checks McCain in Michigan. Thompson and Huckabee cancel each other out, then both quit due to lack of money. Romney and McCain blunt Giuliani on Super Tuesday. Paul moves to frontrunner level status and survives this battle of attrition after the dust settles.
Middle Game---Paul gains a sizable amount of the overall delegates during the primary season, and either goes on to gain the majority of delegates and win the primary race outright, or two other candidates (McCain? Giuliani?) also get a lot of delegates, dividing the pie evenly such that no one is able to win the nomination.
End Game---In a brokered convention scenario, Paul could gain 25-30% of the total delegates, 2 other candidates could get 30%---no one has the 50%+1 delegates needed to win prior to the con. Paul goes for and gets the LP nomination. Let's say his fundraising waves (money bombs) continue, and he's shown by the polls (in late spring and summer) to be the best candidate versus Hillary/Obama.
He can walk in to Minneapolis and demand the Republican nomination based on 1) already being on the ballot in November, splitting the conservative vote if they don't pick him, 2) being a proven fundraiser who will run a competitive race with or without the GOP, 3) doing better in the polls against Hillary/Obama. If he's rejected, then it's the GOP who decided to lose the election. I think the rank and file delegates will go for Paul under this scenario. So Paul can use having a 3rd party line as leverage to get the Republican line.
1. NH has the highest number of campaign donors per capita of any state in the US
2. HQ and the grassroots are much more organized in NH than they were in Iowa
3. NH has a large number of independent voters. Polls in Iowa showed RP was getting something like 26% of independents there.
4. Press coverage has been better in NH than in Iowa
5. The things that are important to people in NH are more in-line with RP than they were with Iowans (at least as articulated in the press and commercials). Iowa is full of farmers who love their subsidies, for example. The NH state slogan is "Live Free or Die".
6. Dr Paul spent a lot more time in NH than in IA
7. Iowans pick corn. NH picks Presidents.
Once more, let's take emotions out the mix ahead of time, and bottom line four things we want out of New Hampshire. We hope:
1. Paul finishes third or higher.
2. If it's a choice between McCain and Romney for first, that McCain wins.
3. That Paul is in double digits, preferably in the high teens or 20's.
4. That independents show up for Paul.
Here, one more time, is a possible master plan to a Paul nomination victory. I still think a 3rd party run should be mounted on top of his GOP effort, to win the latter:
Opening Game---Paul wins or places strong in a couple of the early primaries, to demonstrate he is a player and can win. The other contenders block each other from gaining initial momentum or establishing themselves as 'inevitable'. As in: Huckabee checks Romney and Thompson blunts McCain in IA, McCain blocks Romney in NH, but Romney in turn checks McCain in Michigan. Thompson and Huckabee cancel each other out, then both quit due to lack of money. Romney and McCain blunt Giuliani on Super Tuesday. Paul moves to frontrunner level status and survives this battle of attrition after the dust settles.
Middle Game---Paul gains a sizable amount of the overall delegates during the primary season, and either goes on to gain the majority of delegates and win the primary race outright, or two other candidates (McCain? Giuliani?) also get a lot of delegates, dividing the pie evenly such that no one is able to win the nomination.
End Game---In a brokered convention scenario, Paul could gain 25-30% of the total delegates, 2 other candidates could get 30%---no one has the 50%+1 delegates needed to win prior to the con. Paul goes for and gets the LP nomination. Let's say his fundraising waves (money bombs) continue, and he's shown by the polls (in late spring and summer) to be the best candidate versus Hillary/Obama.
He can walk in to Minneapolis and demand the Republican nomination based on 1) already being on the ballot in November, splitting the conservative vote if they don't pick him, 2) being a proven fundraiser who will run a competitive race with or without the GOP, 3) doing better in the polls against Hillary/Obama. If he's rejected, then it's the GOP who decided to lose the election. I think the rank and file delegates will go for Paul under this scenario. So Paul can use having a 3rd party line as leverage to get the Republican line.