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jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 11:44 AM
ok, so we know the internet is full of paul bots and that we dial the phones at fox 1000 times even though only 1 vote is allowed. we know this already.

What will happen in new hampshire and what happened in iowa?

we dominate the internet, but is the internet still not a function of reality in which we can conclude that our support in regions of the internet will translate into a certain amount of vote? i believe it is the case. even if we are much overrepresented on the internet this still correlates within regions to actual support.

so lets see google trends...

IOWA:
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=ron+paul,+huckabee,+romney,+mccain,+thompson&date=ytd&geo=usa.ia&graph=weekly_img&ctab=0&sa=N
Huckabee #1(red), Ron Paul #2(blue), Romney #3(orange), Thompson #4(purple), McCain #5

Ok, if we swap RP and Romney this is basically what happened in Iowa because 3-5th was within 3% of the vote and there was a major fiasco within the campaign and the lost database of 17,000 voters.


New Hampshire:
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=ron+paul,+huckabee,+romney,+mccain,+fred+tho mpson&date=ytd&geo=usa.nh&graph=weekly_img&ctab=0&sa=N
Ron Paul #1 - NO ONE ELSE REGISTERS. PERIOD

New hampshire is OURS for the taking.



Now lets look at the democrats.
IOWA:
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=obama,+hillary+clinton,+edwards&date=ytd&geo=usa.ia&graph=weekly_img&ctab=0&sa=N
Obama #1(blue), Edwards #2(orange), Clinton #3(red) - 100% accurate prediction.


New Hampshire:
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=obama,+hillary+clinton,+edwards,+ron+paul&date=ytd&geo=usa.nh&graph=weekly_img&ctab=0&sa=N
Obama #1(blue), Edwards #2(orange). If we add ron pau(green)l he's very close and probably would be higher if we compared him to barak obama but barak doesn't like to be added.



Ok, so lets look at the overall united states.
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=ron+paul,+huckabee,+romney,+mccain,+fred+tho mpson&date=ytd&geo=all&graph=weekly_img&ctab=0&sa=N
RP #1(blue), Huckabee #2(red), Romney #3(yellow), McCain #4(green), Giuliani#5(purple),



This seems to becoming a fairly accurate prediction of what could happen as is apparent in the prediction on the democrats side in iowa and the near prediction of the republican caucus. I think we should do VERY well in new hampshire and i am optomistic about the rest of the nation. McCain shows almost no support in both iowa and new hampshire and very little support (only ahead of giuliani nationally) - this seems to indicate his support is either fake or coming from people who do not use the internet.


Still kicking obamas ass on the internet.
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=ron+paul,+obama&date=ytd&geo=all&graph=weekly_img&ctab=0&sa=N

Patrick Henry
01-06-2008, 11:48 AM
Interesting.

jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 11:55 AM
ttt

VoluntaryMan
01-06-2008, 11:59 AM
What about WY?

Also, none of this will mean squat, it we don't have an organized get-out-the-vote campaign. It's all about the follow through.

wfd40
01-06-2008, 12:00 PM
fantastic post.. thank you for the analysis

:)

jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 12:06 PM
What about WY?

Also, none of this will mean squat, it we don't have an organized get-out-the-vote campaign. It's all about the follow through.

I don't think they have enough people / enough internet access in wyoming. No one registers in trend.

bolidew
01-06-2008, 12:13 PM
Obama is our major threat in NH!

slamhead
01-06-2008, 12:15 PM
Thats pretty telling. Also tells me that the fiasco with the database had little effect on RP's turnout. Paul voters are extremely motivated.

jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 12:16 PM
Thats pretty telling. Also tells me that the fiasco with the database had little effect on RP's turnout. Paul voters are extremely motivated.

Not necessarily - it may have had an impact.

jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 12:27 PM
tttt

VoluntaryMan
01-06-2008, 12:29 PM
I don't think they have enough people / enough internet access in wyoming. No one registers in trend.

Thanks for explaining. I was just curious about the omission.

jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 12:44 PM
tttt

slamhead
01-06-2008, 01:01 PM
In the same analysis for New Hampshire January 2008 there is not enough data but if you look at other states you will see Huckabee and Ron Paul. If your analysis is correct then Ron would get second. Now this does not take into consideration of the demographics of NH. Do we have a state that has similar demographics?

LivingFree
01-06-2008, 01:05 PM
Did you also consider misspellings in your analysis?

jamesmadison
01-06-2008, 01:07 PM
no - i used last names for every candidate except clinton and paul which i included their first names. this may lower their projected outcome a bit but it differentiates from every other paul and bill.

mavtek
01-06-2008, 01:08 PM
Now the question is how much are the results skewed because we're out searching for articles/polls and what not?

slamhead
01-06-2008, 01:20 PM
Now the question is how much are the results skewed because we're out searching for articles/polls and what not?

Without really knowing how the database fiasco really effected the outcome I tend to think it is our activity driving these trends. Remember the polls were more accurate then we previously thought.

I find these polls a bit disheartening:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com

But on the same note we cannot ignore how this analysis predicted the democratic race. Is a wait and see for me.