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View Full Version : Ron Paul at 3% in July 12-15 Gallup poll. where's MSM?




John Kahoun
07-18-2007, 04:25 PM
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28144

poll reported july 17 by gallup. MSM hasn't picked up the story.
we're now officially at the top of the so-called 2nd tier candidates

So how is it that the USAT/Gallup poll reported on July 9, Ron Paul received 0% support?

quote: "Neither former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore nor Rep. Ron Paul registered any support."

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/07/usatgallup-poll.html

the same usatoday blog still hasn't reported on the july 17 Gallup poll.

rodent
07-18-2007, 04:31 PM
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28144

poll reported july 17 by gallup. MSM hasn't picked up the story.
we're now officially at the top of the so-called 2nd tier candidates

So how is it that the USAT/Gallup poll reported on July 9, Ron Paul received 0% support?

quote: "Neither former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore nor Rep. Ron Paul registered any support."

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/07/usatgallup-poll.html

the same usatoday blog still hasn't reported on the july 17 Gallup poll.

Yeah! Stephanopolous can interview RP again when we're at 10% and then pay up.

kylejack
07-18-2007, 04:47 PM
The July 9 poll rolled Republicans and Republican leaners, which was a different metric.

Therion
07-18-2007, 04:50 PM
Margin of error is probably ~+-5% so we could either be at 8% or at -2%. Huh? Yeah, just wait for when we hit negative poll numbers.

Wyurm
07-18-2007, 05:45 PM
Margin of error is probably ~+-5% so we could either be at 8% or at -2%. Huh? Yeah, just wait for when we hit negative poll numbers.

I wonder, if all the respondents said they want Ron Paul as president, would that mean he could have 105%?

akalucas
07-18-2007, 05:52 PM
Romney really took a hit with only 8%.

Bradley in DC
07-18-2007, 06:09 PM
I thought you guys thought the polls were rigged :p

The real campaign starts after Labor Day. The field will be smaller then, Dr. Paul will still be standing (and have resources the others don't--KEEP DONATING!!!), and people will start to pay attention.

ZackM
07-18-2007, 08:53 PM
Margin of error is probably ~+-5% so we could either be at 8% or at -2%. Huh? Yeah, just wait for when we hit negative poll numbers.

LOL - Yea - 3% and 0% are statistically identical in a sample this size (5% margin of error). You need poll results with a minimum of 5% difference to be able to claim that the two polls represent a statistical change.

ThePieSwindler
07-18-2007, 09:05 PM
I thought you guys thought the polls were rigged :p

The real campaign starts after Labor Day. The field will be smaller then, Dr. Paul will still be standing (and have resources the others don't--KEEP DONATING!!!), and people will start to pay attention.

We also have to remember that anyone polled for Dr. paul is almost without fail a strong supporter, while the other candidates are generally only chosen by those polled based on name recognition and one or two issues. The thing about Paul is that he has a very deep base of support that plants the seeds that will sprout and grow when the majority of america begins to pay attention to the election. This deep base that has sewn the seeds will give rise to a broader base when people hears Ron's name and Ron's message. The key right now is planting those seeds and blanketing as many "orifaces" of knowledge between the deep support and the general public with Ron Paul information, and continuing the grassroots effort to spread those seeds around locally.

angelatc
07-18-2007, 09:06 PM
ISn't the most important issue the Pajamas Media poll??? ;)

Bradley in DC
07-18-2007, 09:08 PM
We also have to remember that anyone polled for Dr. paul is almost without fail a strong supporter, while the other candidates are generally only chosen by those polled based on name recognition and one or two issues. The thing about Paul is that he has a very deep base of support that plants the seeds that will sprout and grow when the majority of america begins to pay attention to the election. This deep base that has sewn the seeds will give rise to a broader base when people hears Ron's name and Ron's message. The key right now is planting those seeds and blanketing as many "orifaces" of knowledge between the deep support and the general public with Ron Paul information, and continuing the grassroots effort to spread those seeds around locally.

Absolutely! And we need to cultivate the grassroots as if the Republic depended on it!

Bradley in DC
07-18-2007, 09:11 PM
ISn't the most important issue the Pajamas Media poll??? ;)

Yes, under the pre-Labor Day rules, a candidate needs 1% in the Gallup poll. However:

Following the established rules of the Pajamas Media Straw Poll, Ron Paul, winner of the twenty-fifth week among the Republican candidates, has been dropped from the poll for the forthcoming period. Paul did not make the required minimum number of one percent on the most recent USA Today/Gallup Poll.
Despite heavy support from Internet groups for some time, the Texas Congressman continues not to make a dent on national polls. While our evidence is only anecdotal (many email complaints), Pajamas Media editors suspect that targeted voting by Paul supporters on this and other open polls may even be hurting their candidate because the public is turned off by his supporters’ behavior.
Jim Gilmore, who also did not reach one percent in the Gallup Poll, has similarly been dropped from the Pajamas Poll. Gilmore has subsequently withdrawn his candidacy.
Bill Richardson continues to lead on the Democratic side.
On the question of which candidates get to be in the poll, Pajamas Media continues to receive requests from supporters of a long list of candidates to have their favorites included. Some of these candidates are quite well known, but others we have never even heard of. We want to be as open as possible, but we have to draw the line somewhere to keep our poll credible and to do so on an evenhanded basis. For that reason, some time ago Pajamas Media announced that our baseline for inclusion would be that the candidate must have one percent in the most recent Gallup Poll. That rule remains in force and the candidate list readjusted accordingly every Sunday night.
As we go forward into Labor Day and more serious campaigning, Pajamas Media will be reevaluating this standard.

Misesian
07-18-2007, 10:03 PM
I thought you guys thought the polls were rigged :p


I don't think we've ever said they're rigged, at least I never have.

I have always said, and still do, that the polls are meaningless. You can get people to admit this too when you show how Ron Paul has overwhelmingly won all of the post-debate polls. They marginalize polls in general and you agree with them.

Though all polls do say something. The phone polls are rigged when they are push polls, but if they continue to poll land-line telephone subscribers who actually answer anonymous calls, and are home during the day, than we can actually see trends. This is why it's encouraging to see Ron Paul infiltrating the polling target base of the old media and reach 3%.

I'm guessing that the trickle UP effect is starting and the young crowd is telling their parents and grandparents about Ron Paul, thereby bypassing the old media's blackout on him.

It'll probably dip to 1-2% again but if the trend continues he will hit 4-5% soon enough as well. I think that once Tom Tancredo drops out much of his support will go right to Ron Paul, same with Duncan Hunter.