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ConQuesimo
01-05-2008, 08:21 PM
Does anyone have a copy of or a link to the graph Ron mentioned during the ABC debate? I believe he said it was from the Wall Street Journal. He described it as a graph of oil price in terms of dollars, euro, and gold. I've been looking for a while here without any luck.

hueylong
01-05-2008, 08:21 PM
wall street journal

constitutional
01-05-2008, 08:22 PM
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=77475&page=2

ConQuesimo
01-05-2008, 08:24 PM
I am looking for the specific graph Ron mentioned in the debate. I know it's on the Wall Street Journal, but I cannot locate it. Does anybody know where it is?

skeryl
01-05-2008, 08:25 PM
this is not the wall street one... but close.

http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/RisingOil2.gif
http://www.digg.com/business_finance/Oil_Priced_in_Gold_Remains_Unchanged_Graph

walt
01-05-2008, 08:26 PM
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AG911_1oilgo_20080103221647.gif

Oil and the Dollar
January 4, 2008; Page A10
Oil prices finally hit $100 a barrel this week, albeit briefly, but breaking through that symbolic barrier is ominous and higher gasoline prices are sure to follow. Supply disruptions in various places and surging demand in China and India are part of the explanation for this decade's upward trend in oil prices. But perhaps the biggest factor has been largely overlooked: the decline in the value of the dollar.

Since 2001 the dollar price of oil and gold have run in almost perfect tandem (see nearby chart). The gold price has risen 239% since 2001, while the oil price has risen 267%. This means that if the dollar had remained "as good as gold" since 2001, oil today would be selling at about $30 a barrel, not $99. Gold has traditionally been a rough proxy for the price level, so the decline of the dollar against gold and oil suggests a U.S. monetary that is supplying too many dollars.

We would add that the dollar price of nearly all commodities -- from wheat to corn to copper to silver -- are also surging, a further sign of a weakening currency. On Wednesday alone the price of wheat and soybeans increased 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. That follows a 75% increase in their price in 2007 -- which ran ahead of the oil price, which gained a mere 57% for the year. Neither OPEC nor China caused food commodity prices to rise like this. The main culprit here is a global loss of confidence in Federal Reserve policy and the dollar.

This state of affairs is all too similar to what happened in the commodity markets in the 1970s -- particularly the energy markets. Oil price spikes in that stagflationary decade were driven less by OPEC than by the weak-dollar policies pursued by the Fed. Gold in that decade broke from its traditional $35 an ounce mooring and climbed as high as $850 in 1980, before Paul Volcker began to restore the Fed's credibility.

Another way to consider the impact of the weak dollar is to examine what would have happened if the dollar had simply kept pace with the euro in this decade. What would oil cost today? Not $100, but closer to $57 a barrel. The nearby chart gives a sense of the comparative trend since 2000.

A weak dollar has been trumpeted in the business media and especially among manufacturers as a strategy to lower the trade deficit. But this strategy makes imported oil a lot more expensive. The trade figures reveal that a major contributor to the rising trade deficit over this decade has been the high cost of oil imports. We don't worry about the trade deficit -- except in so far as it inspires protectionism -- but those who do might want to consider that the weak dollar policy they are cheering is making fuel very expensive.

We aren't saying that supply problems and an increase in relative demand haven't played a role in oil's rise. Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates that "aggregate supply disruptions" reduced oil supply by almost two million barrels a day in late 2007, which isn't helping prices. But the high price of oil is not a vindication of theorists who say we are confronting "peak oil."

A report issued this summer by the National Petroleum Council and energy experts across the spectrum concluded that "the world is not running out of energy resources," though it conceded that "there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources." Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy notes that in the energy markets "most of these risks are above ground, not below ground." By that he's referring to the tendency of politicians to intervene in the energy markets in any number of harmful ways. We'd offer barriers to drilling in Alaska and on the Continental Shelf as Exhibit A and B in this country.

Rising oil prices act like a tax on American consumers. With the economy slowing, the Fed is now under intense pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and provide liquidity to the banking industry. But if this causes the dollar to continue to weaken, the tax of higher commodity prices will offset much of the "stimulus" from looser money. The Fed will get a lot less bang for its easier buck.

The larger danger here, as we've been warning for some time, is that the U.S. seems to be returning to the Carter-era economic policy mix of tight fiscal policy (tax increases) and easy money. Add barriers to oil and natural gas production and you have a recipe for higher oil prices and slower growth. In a word, for stagflation. The Reagan-Volcker policy mix of the 1980s changed all that, but maybe we have to relearn the hard way every generation or so what works -- and what produces $100 oil.

ConQuesimo
01-05-2008, 08:28 PM
The reason I want the graph from the Wall Street Journal is because my father respects the organization and will finally take Ron Paul seriously if he sees that they're confirming what I've been telling him about our fiat currency.

constitutional
01-05-2008, 08:29 PM
The reason I want the graph from the Wall Street Journal is because my father respects the organization and will finally take Ron Paul seriously if he sees that they're confirming what I've been telling him about our fiat currency.

how about these? http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=832961&postcount=10


No one knows which one RP was talking about exactly.

ConQuesimo
01-05-2008, 08:34 PM
Those graphs are good for people who already understand what is going on, but for people who want to take a quick gander and not really think, they're useless. I wish WSJ.com was free to view online...

Anybody happen to find the graphs Ron mentioned from the WSJ?

Thanks for the help :-)

OptionsTrader
01-05-2008, 08:39 PM
Those graphs are good for people who already understand what is going on, but for people who want to take a quick gander and not really think, they're useless. I wish WSJ.com was free to view online...

Anybody happen to find the graphs Ron mentioned from the WSJ?

Thanks for the help :-)

I sent en email to Lew Rockwell asking him to post the actual WSJ article chart if he has it.

Troyhand
01-05-2008, 08:45 PM
Does anyone have a copy of or a link to the graph Ron mentioned during the ABC debate? I believe he said it was from the Wall Street Journal. He described it as a graph of oil price in terms of dollars, euro, and gold. I've been looking for a while here without any luck.

closest graph i can find
http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/X/R/gasprices.jpg

walt
01-05-2008, 08:52 PM
bump

Bryan
01-05-2008, 09:01 PM
Nice find.


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AG911_1oilgo_20080103221647.gif

Oil and the Dollar
January 4, 2008; Page A10
Oil prices finally hit $100 a barrel this week, albeit briefly, but breaking through that symbolic barrier is ominous and higher gasoline prices are sure to follow. Supply disruptions in various places and surging demand in China and India are part of the explanation for this decade's upward trend in oil prices. But perhaps the biggest factor has been largely overlooked: the decline in the value of the dollar.

Since 2001 the dollar price of oil and gold have run in almost perfect tandem (see nearby chart). The gold price has risen 239% since 2001, while the oil price has risen 267%. This means that if the dollar had remained "as good as gold" since 2001, oil today would be selling at about $30 a barrel, not $99. Gold has traditionally been a rough proxy for the price level, so the decline of the dollar against gold and oil suggests a U.S. monetary that is supplying too many dollars.

We would add that the dollar price of nearly all commodities -- from wheat to corn to copper to silver -- are also surging, a further sign of a weakening currency. On Wednesday alone the price of wheat and soybeans increased 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. That follows a 75% increase in their price in 2007 -- which ran ahead of the oil price, which gained a mere 57% for the year. Neither OPEC nor China caused food commodity prices to rise like this. The main culprit here is a global loss of confidence in Federal Reserve policy and the dollar.

This state of affairs is all too similar to what happened in the commodity markets in the 1970s -- particularly the energy markets. Oil price spikes in that stagflationary decade were driven less by OPEC than by the weak-dollar policies pursued by the Fed. Gold in that decade broke from its traditional $35 an ounce mooring and climbed as high as $850 in 1980, before Paul Volcker began to restore the Fed's credibility.

Another way to consider the impact of the weak dollar is to examine what would have happened if the dollar had simply kept pace with the euro in this decade. What would oil cost today? Not $100, but closer to $57 a barrel. The nearby chart gives a sense of the comparative trend since 2000.

A weak dollar has been trumpeted in the business media and especially among manufacturers as a strategy to lower the trade deficit. But this strategy makes imported oil a lot more expensive. The trade figures reveal that a major contributor to the rising trade deficit over this decade has been the high cost of oil imports. We don't worry about the trade deficit -- except in so far as it inspires protectionism -- but those who do might want to consider that the weak dollar policy they are cheering is making fuel very expensive.

We aren't saying that supply problems and an increase in relative demand haven't played a role in oil's rise. Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates that "aggregate supply disruptions" reduced oil supply by almost two million barrels a day in late 2007, which isn't helping prices. But the high price of oil is not a vindication of theorists who say we are confronting "peak oil."

A report issued this summer by the National Petroleum Council and energy experts across the spectrum concluded that "the world is not running out of energy resources," though it conceded that "there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources." Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy notes that in the energy markets "most of these risks are above ground, not below ground." By that he's referring to the tendency of politicians to intervene in the energy markets in any number of harmful ways. We'd offer barriers to drilling in Alaska and on the Continental Shelf as Exhibit A and B in this country.

Rising oil prices act like a tax on American consumers. With the economy slowing, the Fed is now under intense pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and provide liquidity to the banking industry. But if this causes the dollar to continue to weaken, the tax of higher commodity prices will offset much of the "stimulus" from looser money. The Fed will get a lot less bang for its easier buck.

The larger danger here, as we've been warning for some time, is that the U.S. seems to be returning to the Carter-era economic policy mix of tight fiscal policy (tax increases) and easy money. Add barriers to oil and natural gas production and you have a recipe for higher oil prices and slower growth. In a word, for stagflation. The Reagan-Volcker policy mix of the 1980s changed all that, but maybe we have to relearn the hard way every generation or so what works -- and what produces $100 oil.

walt
01-05-2008, 09:08 PM
Thanks Bryan

ConQuesimo
01-05-2008, 09:58 PM
Any chance that anybody has seen the graph from The Wall Street Journal?

jonahtrainer
01-05-2008, 10:05 PM
Those graphs are good for people who already understand what is going on, but for people who want to take a quick gander and not really think, they're useless. I wish WSJ.com was free to view online...

Anybody happen to find the graphs Ron mentioned from the WSJ?

Thanks for the help :-)

That graph along with this site (http://www.RunToGold.com) may be helpful with people understanding the monetary nature of gold. This video (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8050173951455100014&hl=en) is also helpful.

Bryan
01-05-2008, 10:14 PM
Any chance that anybody has seen the graph from The Wall Street Journal?
?

Which graph?

ConQuesimo
01-05-2008, 10:55 PM
Does anyone have a copy of or a link to the graph Ron mentioned during the ABC debate? I believe he said it was from the Wall Street Journal. He described it as a graph of oil price in terms of dollars, euro, and gold. I've been looking for a while here without any luck.

That specific graph created by Wall Street Journal.