Ames straw poll

[BillyDkid]

Are we really dead if we don't show well in this? Is it a deal breaker? I would like more info from the campaign about what they are specifically doing in Iowa. I hope they are spending some of all the money we have sent on seriously trying to make a good showing there. Are there TV and radio ads? Are people out knocking on doors and handing out flyers there? We all know Ron is popular on the internet and it is good to see him on Tucker and other shows and I see the videos of the rallies on youtube. I sometimes feel like what we are doing is preaching to the converted. We don't need to reach out to other Ron Paul supporters as much as we need to make new ones. Sometimes it is just frustrating not knowing what steps the campaign is taking to win the early, critical straw votes and primaries. I just want to know they are aggressively putting the word out in the places that will make or break the campaign. National and internet recognition is great, but you know the media will go out of their way to down play it. The only way the campaign can really break through is to do well in the contests that mean something to other people and can't be ignored.

[Bradley in DC]

Not a deal breaker for us--possibly for Tommy Thompson, Huckabee and Brownback.

[Slugg]

Honestly, we (myself very much included) have over hyped the straw poll a bit. It is INCREDIBLY important....but no, not a real 'deal breaker.' It would just propel him to the 'top tier' if he wins a strong 2nd and to do that this early is very very BIG!!! So it is very important, but not a 'deal breaker'


As far as what's being done. Alot! ALOT ALOT ALOT!!!

There is "Operation Groundswell" Where people are going up there and knocking on doors. This is very well organized and the people who put it together should be commended. There is also a phone bank going on as we speak. We are trying to reach every single iowan before the straw poll. And then there's the mail campaign.

I have yet to hear a word on TV or Radio spots...but don't worry...HQ is very very clever. We (the supporters) have surprised people several times, Ron Paul has surprised people several times, and I am more than confident HQ has some surprises up their sleeve.

[Elwar]

If he wins the straw poll in Iowa it'll only be because of spamming the polls with "votes".

Crazy Ron Paul vote spammers.

[lynnf]

Are we really dead if we don't show well in this? Is it a deal breaker? I would like more info from the campaign about what they are specifically doing in Iowa. I hope they are spending some of all the money we have sent on seriously trying to make a good showing there. Are there TV and radio ads? Are people out knocking on doors and handing out flyers there? We all know Ron is popular on the internet and it is good to see him on Tucker and other shows and I see the videos of the rallies on youtube. I sometimes feel like what we are doing is preaching to the converted. We don't need to reach out to other Ron Paul supporters as much as we need to make new ones. Sometimes it is just frustrating not knowing what steps the campaign is taking to win the early, critical straw votes and primaries. I just want to know they are aggressively putting the word out in the places that will make or break the campaign. National and internet recognition is great, but you know the media will go out of their way to down play it. The only way the campaign can really break through is to do well in the contests that mean something to other people and can't be ignored.

Not a deal breaker, in my opinion. The importance to me seems to be in the incredible opportunity it presents -- a win will catapult RP into the limelight.
If not, we'll go on to the next battleground with an opportunity lost.

lynn

[yongrel]

To most campaigns, I think that the straw poll has the ability to make or break. But because of the fundamental nature of Ron Paul's campaign, I think that the Ames poll can only help us, not hurt us.

[DeadheadForPaul]

To most campaigns, I think that the straw poll has the ability to make or break. But because of the fundamental nature of Ron Paul's campaign, I think that the Ames poll can only help us, not hurt us.

I don't think we'll lose voters over it but we REALLY need to gain voters. I think it does hurt us if we do not make ground in the national polls. I fear that if we do not have a strong showing after the Iowa Straw Poll and the Debate with at least 5% nationally that they will exclude us from future debates

[kylejack]

If we pull 3 percent in Ames, we're probably dead as far as media legitimacy goes. There's enough money to keep spreading a libertarian message, though. I'm confident 3% won't happen. Ames is a huge opportunity to put one last bomb down the smokestack of the "longshot" meme. To have an impact, we need to hit at least third, I'd say. Third gets us a raised eyebrow and a couple days of increased coverage. Second probably converts us to Tier 1.5 status, with quite a bit more coverage for the rest of the primary season, and probably some in-depth articles on the effectiveness of our grassroots Meetup and canvassing, and the passionate nature of the average Ron Paul supporter. Its difficult to imagine just what impact First would give us. It would be huge, but I'm trying to be realistic. Coverage would increase, of course, but on top of that, I think we'd also start to see some articles in mainstream media that would try to ponder the various reasons that polling might not be clicking with Ron Paul's apparent actual support, which would be excellent. I'm not talking about overt poll bias, but some wondering about things like cell phones, youthful overparticipation, and likelihood that the polled person actually intends to vote. Furthermore, winning Ames would give us a strong air of viable legitimacy with the average voter, something that we've really lacked, and which will be critical for continued success. One caveat: At some point during Ron Paul's rise in the coming weeks, the racism charges are going to hit the media in a huge way. Too many vested interests like the established corporate PAC machines and the Fed have too much riding on this. The moment Ron Paul moves from quirky old guy to legitimate candidate in the mind of the average voter will be when they unleash everything they've got on Ron Paul, including the newsletter. Truth of the charges won't matter to many. Our goal needs to be converting as many people to Ron Paul as possible BEFORE that happens, because voters locked in to Ron Paul are not likely to abandon him, even if the newsletter thing troubles them. They're also far more likely to look into Ron Paul's response to the charges. Ron Paul needs to expand on his previous defenses, in my opinion. He needs to name names on the ghostwriter right away, preferably in a small media source's interview of him. We don't want to call attention to the racism thing too noisily before the media detonates on it, but Ron Paul needs to be on record with a name, so that we can point to that and say that Ron Paul already addressed it. But yea, GO AMES. :)

[Phil M]

If we can't come in second or third at an event where Giuliani, McCain, and F. Thompson aren't participating, it'll most likely be over. Our major competition is Brownback, Huckabee, and T. Thompson, the first and last of which it would be very hard to get excited about.

[BillyDkid]

Thanks for all your responses. I have been concerned about this racism thing and waiting for it to raise its ugly head in a big way. It is one thing for Ron to be on record about it, but don't you think it would be better if he laid it all out on the table in public way before it has a chance to explode on us? I mean, what if the next time he is on TV or gives a big speech he simply says "I want to bring something up that needs to be addressed and cleared up ......" Do it in such a way that his critics just don't have it for ammo. So they have nowhere to go with it. I'm thinking of Harrison Ford's advice to the President in A Clear and Present Danger. Some friend of the President gets in trouble for money laundering (or something, I don't remember) and everyone is sitting around and trying think of some way to defuse the situation and distance the President from this guy. Harrison Ford tells him - "No that's the wrong thing to do. If they ask if you are friends say 'We're close friends. Life long friends....' etc. and give them nowhere to go with it". I'm thinking it would be better for Dr. Paul to put this out in the open himself and express his disgust with racist views. If it just pops up in the mainstream media I'm afraid it will amount to Howard Dean's notorious scream.

[micahnelson]

Don't worry Billy. He has considered Walt. E. Williams as a running mate and has described racism as an ugly form of collectivism. He has a pretty strong record for civil rights and I have not heard anyone have legitimate gripes about what was printed in his newsletter over a decade ago.

[Slugg]

Don't worry Billy. He has considered Walt. E. Williams as a running mate and has described racism as an ugly form of collectivism. He has a pretty strong record for civil rights and I have not heard anyone have legitimate gripes about what was printed in his newsletter over a decade ago.

THAT WOULD BE AWESOME!!!!!! SO INCREDIBLY RIDICULOUS THAT I CAN"T FATHOM HOW AWESOME THAT IS!!!!!!!!

Where can I read him mentioning Walt?

[BillyDkid]

Don't worry Billy. He has considered Walt. E. Williams as a running mate and has described racism as an ugly form of collectivism. He has a pretty strong record for civil rights and I have not heard anyone have legitimate gripes about what was printed in his newsletter over a decade ago.But you have to remember - appearances are everything and the truth is very often secondary or altogether irrelevant in politics. I'm still very afraid this can kill us, regardless of what the truth actually is.

[DeadheadForPaul]

But you have to remember - appearances are everything and the truth is very often secondary or altogether irrelevant in politics. I'm still very afraid this can kill us, regardless of what the truth actually is.

Billy, I share your concerns. I can see the MSM covering the issue, and I know that the average person will hear "racist" and "Ron Paul" in the same sentence and that is all that will matter to them

[Slugg]

But you have to remember - appearances are everything and the truth is very often secondary or altogether irrelevant in politics.

Then we're toast, regardless of any silly news letter. I think your right, appearances are everything...the question is, "Will people recognize the truth when it appears in front of them?" If the answer is 'no,' then all the campaigning in the world isn't going to help. But I think the answer is, 'yes,' and as a result we stand a good chance :D

[BillyDkid]

another example why Ron HAS to get out in front of this. They are going to use it and they don't care what the truth is. Once the perception is in place it will be nearly impossible to change it.

http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?storyid=19074&ret=news.aspx&cat=Politics