Ron Paul Will Place Second at Ames

[RonPaul2012grassroots]

Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Ron Paul Will Place Second at Ames
Posted by: Patrick Ruffini at 1:48 AM

You heard it here first.

He leads the second tier in cash-on-hand. He was able to get 1,200 people out to the Hy-Vee (has any candidate done something that big on their own, not at an RPI event?). His home base in Texas isn’t that far of a drive, and his people are motivated enough to come in from out of state for him. And he’s making a big push on his Web site, which for all intents and purposes, is his campaign.

Romney, given his dominant position organizationally in Iowa, should still win. Even with the rest of the top tier not participating, he won’t be able to let his guard down, lest he be ambushed by one of the second tier. Should Romney underperform against someone not even playing at Ames, or against someone not taken seriously, that’s a blow to his Iowa inevitability.

Does Paul placing a close second make the straw poll and its winner into a laughingstock? Do benched McCain or Giuliani supporters direct people to vote for Paul to ensure that outcome? Or does this portend something bigger? I see that Ron Paul is up to 3% in the Gallup poll, above Huckabee and Brownback. He won’t come close to winning, but can he aggregate whatever Bilderburger and Trilateral Commission-phobic votes there are in his corner, in the same way that Lyndon LaRouche could get 15% in a Democratic primary against Bill Clinton?

And what’s happened to Huckabee and Brownback? Conn Carroll and I got into a lengthy “What about Huckabee?” discussion on BloggingHeads.tv. Intellectually, the Huckabee campaign seemed to make sense in the context of the standard playbook of GOP campaigns. With no Country-Western candidates and no authentic pro-lifers in the race, and with his personal connection to the pastors, he has/had a chance to break out in Iowa. Where this theory breaks down is that the interest groups may not matter so much in GOP politics anymore. What matters is going to your base directly, which only Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, and maybe Mitt Romney are doing. Can Huckabee or Brownback be carried by the church lists, or is the drawn out calendar and the Internet helping Evangelicals to make their own independent assessments (which is why Rudy isn’t getting killed, BTW)?

http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/b050a593-906a-4e05-b2fa-6e352fdd3112

[LizF]

Nice...very nice! :)

[j650]

I think he'll come in 2nd as well, hopefully a strong 2nd. Only Tommy Thompson and Romney had more contributions for the 2nd quarter than Dr. Paul of those participating. A strong 2nd place might force a couple guys like Huckabee and Brownback out of the race. I don't think it'd be a laughingstock at all if Ron Paul came in 2nd in the straw poll. The media will downplay it of course with Giuliani and McCain out, but it will get coverage at least.

[JasonM]

I think he'll come in 2nd as well, hopefully a strong 2nd. Only Tommy Thompson and Romney had more contributions for the 2nd quarter than Dr. Paul of those participating. A strong 2nd place might force a couple guys like Huckabee and Brownback out of the race. I don't think it'd be a laughingstock at all if Ron Paul came in 2nd in the straw poll. The media will downplay it of course with Giuliani and McCain out, but it will get coverage at least.

lets hope so. If Brownback and Heckabee drop out, the only real conservatives will be Ron Paul. Fred Thompson will fool folks for a while, but once his stance on abortion is made clear, he will drop like a rock. The Christian right has a low tolerance for anyone resembling a pro-choice candidate, and Rudy is going to suffer sooner or later because of this. Romney also doesn't stand a chance because he flip flopped on the issue, and isn't a convincing candidate for pro lifers.

[Slugg]

lets hope so. If Brownback and Heckabee drop out, the only real conservatives will be Ron Paul. Fred Thompson will fool folks for a while, but once his stance on abortion is made clear, he will drop like a rock. The Christian right has a low tolerance for anyone resembling a pro-choice candidate, and Rudy is going to suffer sooner or later because of this. Romney also doesn't stand a chance because he flip flopped on the issue, and isn't a convincing candidate for pro lifers.

It's all about who Pat Roberts endorses....that's a bombshell.

[beermotor]

You can bet it won't be Ron Paul.

But when he keeps beating people and surprising the establishment, they will eventually come around.

[AMack]

Huh? Tommy Thompson has more than RP? Where did you get that crazy idea from?

Edit: Oh, are you talking about the amount of people who donated to the campaign?

[Slugg]

You can bet it won't be Ron Paul.

But when he keeps beating people and surprising the establishment, they will eventually come around.

I'm afraid huge endorsements like Pat Roberts only comes after deals are made....we know that's not going to happen (I would think...who knows).

The fact is, Ron's Campaign is all about getting those who have been disillusioned with voting....not picking up the 'regular' voter. In my mind, the push should be to convince people who don't vote to do it for this man. But that is a tall order, me thinks.

[ADGettis]

It's all about who Pat Roberts endorses....that's a bombshell.

Robertson has his following, but I don't think he has the influence you think he does. Speaking as an insider, most Christians have noticed by now that he's little more than a crazy old man.

James Dobson, whether you love him or hate him, though, is well-respected and his endorsement will carry quite a bit of weight. He has sworn publicly that he will not support Giuliani, but hasn't said anything that I've heard about the others.

[freelance]

Are you guys talking about Pat Robertson?

[remaxjon]

This is in the article just above the one posted


If you had to take one of the hands, I think most would pick Romney's cards. Patrick's worries below about Ron Paul's supporters picking up the "strategic" votes of the disappearing McCain effort etc overthinks the situation in Iowa, and the tide of the early contests generally. Winning is winning, and if Romney wins in either Iowa or New Hampshire, he's the conservative to beat in Florida. Beat him in both and he's almost certainly done. But a silver medal for Ron Paul in Iowa is about as significant as the innards of a pigeon.

I think these guys are starting to get very very scared.

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/

[MsDoodahs]

Haven't the establishment politicians in both parties been trying to marginalize the importance of Iowa in recent years?

How many electoral votes does Iowa command, anyway?

[LizF]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/07/townhall-blog-p.html

[Avalon]

It doesn't seem like a good thing to me to be setting an expectation of Ron Paul coming in second at Ames. If he doesn't, every columnist/journalist will be coming out of the woodwork to comment about his pitiful showing, especially if he is beaten by candidates who have decided to opt out (I believe Dave said they will still be included in the poll).

[Slugg]

It doesn't seem like a good thing to me to be setting an expectation of Ron Paul coming in second at Ames. If he doesn't, every columnist/journalist will be coming out of the woodwork to comment about his pitiful showing, especially if he is beaten by candidates who have decided to opt out (I believe Dave said they will still be included in the poll).

Honestly, if we get less than 3rd...we're about done.... If we get 3rd...we come out relatively unscathed....if we get 2nd we get a nod....we GOTTA be aiming for first though.

If a candidate opts out of the event, I was almost certain they were out of the poll.

is that right?

[Harry96]

Honestly, if we get less than 3rd...we're about done.... If we get 3rd...we come out relatively unscathed....if we get 2nd we get a nod....we GOTTA be aiming for first though.

If a candidate opts out of the event, I was almost certain they were out of the poll.

is that right?

That's what I thought, but now I'm under the impression that their names will still be on the ballots, and that "opting out" simply means that they're not going to campaign for a good showing. Can anyone clarify this with a linked source?

In a way, I'm kind of disappointed that Giuliani and McCain opted out, because I have a hunch that if Paul wins, the MSM is going to spin it as Giuliani's and McCain's supporters voting for Paul to knock Romney down, since Romney will be the only "real" candidate participating.

[Slugg]

A little off topic, but are there going to be any more Ron Paul appearances in Iowa before the straw poll?

Perhaps the week between the Debate and the poll just BLAST them with radio/tv ads and appearances....

[SAVEamerica]

No. Second place isn't good enough. We shouldn't be expecting or trying to come in second. :mad:

He needs to come in first. It's the about the only thing that will finally get him the media attention he deserves. He won't win the presidency if he doesn't win the straw poll.

[Dave]

That's what I thought, but now I'm under the impression that their names will still be on the ballots, and that "opting out" simply means that they're not going to campaign for a good showing. Can anyone clarify this with a linked source?

In a way, I'm kind of disappointed that Giuliani and McCain opted out, because I have a hunch that if Paul wins, the MSM is going to spin it as Giuliani's and McCain's supporters voting for Paul to knock Romney down, since Romney will be the only "real" candidate participating.

McCain and Giuliani will still be on the ballots at Ames. I don't know why the Iowa GOP would reward them like this.

I heard this from the man in the Des Moines meetup who is coordinating the RP effort at Ames. If you want a better source you might call the Iowa GOP and ask them to verify.

[Lord Xar]

Guys.. I am trying to be optimistic, but i personally think he will place low in Ames. I just think his message is not out there. For instance, others are there fullforce.. putting ads out about illegal immigration, and the war... yet, where is ron paul? Iowans have big feelings about illegal immigration yet - the dvd's i have seen or flyers sorta bury this under the rug. I almost feel like many of you live in areas that are not plagued by this problem.... I think personally, he will place 4th. I am NOT saying this to disparage the campaign because I think we have a long way to go and will prevail, but we have to really get focused down there and push Ron Pauls agends that MOSTLY mimic the area he is in. We are not doing that, we are not tailoring any specific issue to the area.. its the same issue all over - that is good, but it doens't win elections. Everytime someone creates flyers or business cards, I look at them and I am thinking "hmmm, there are 4 other issues i would put on there that aren't...."

[Bro.Butch]

Guys.. I am trying to be optimistic, but i personally think he will place low in Ames. I just think his message is not out there. For instance, others are there fullforce.. putting ads out about illegal immigration, and the war... yet, where is ron paul? Iowans have big feelings about illegal immigration yet - the dvd's i have seen or flyers sorta bury this under the rug. I almost feel like many of you live in areas that are not plagued by this problem.... I think personally, he will place 4th. I am NOT saying this to disparage the campaign because I think we have a long way to go and will prevail, but we have to really get focused down there and push Ron Pauls agends that MOSTLY mimic the area he is in. We are not doing that, we are not tailoring any specific issue to the area.. its the same issue all over - that is good, but it doens't win elections. Everytime someone creates flyers or business cards, I look at them and I am thinking "hmmm, there are 4 other issues i would put on there that aren't...."

Thank you for some truth !!! AN EXCELLENT POST. Reading some of these posts makes me think of the "plant" that floated the 2nd Quarter $5 million donation lie to damage the campaign. You NEVER and I mean NEVER over estimate your results. In Presidential campaigns as an underdog (or overdog for that matter) you underestimate everything. Bill Clinton after Bimbogate was swamped in Iowa '92, went into NH finished second, defeated by Tsongas by a big margin and got up and declared himself the "COMEBACK KID" the media picked it up and the rest you already know with us facing a Hillary administration. You want to EXCEED expectation, ALWAYS in politics.

Dr. Paul has been in Iowa twice, ran no advertisements, where exactly are the people coming from to spend $35 of their own money to "vote" for RP in this scam to fill the IA Republican Party pot!?! Are they going to materialize out of thin air, is Scotty gonna beam them in with an Iowa Drivers Lic. in their pocket ? One post says RP needs to run ads , I agree but where's the money to be running TV/radio ads at this time? If he spends the money now on this scam straw poll, that means less for later when you start collecting real live delegates. He already has over $50,000 invested in the state and hasn't ran one ad.

Romney will pay for buses to bus them in, will feed them and pay the $35 fee for them to vote. Victory for RP ? Some of you must be smokin' some good stuff! Brownback, T.Thompson, Tancredo & etc. have all been in Iowa many, many more days than RP. And some are even running ads. You don't win Iowa & NH unless you are on the ground asking people for their support. Now for a straw poll like this you can win with a personnal fortune of over $125 million dollars. That's why McCain & Ghoully dropped out, they saw what is coming, Romney BIG !!! Now that doesn't mean Romney in Jan. (when it really counts) but he BUYS this scam. (the truth is he is trying to buy the nomination and this is a major part of the plan) We need to get the word out Romney should get @ least 80-90% of the vote without McCain, Ghoully & FredsStillNbed Thompson in the event ! LET Romney be pinned with the label of failure not RP.

Everyone of us should be saying that we hope Dr. Paul finishes # FIVE or six. And don't ever talk about victory in any primary or caucus in '08. We are hoping he can finish in the top five... The expectations game destroys campaigns quicker than anything else in politics.

Low expectations means you EXCEED expectations which means you are a WINNER and people loves a winner !!!

Perception not necessarily reality is so very important, so many times...

WE CAN ALL CELEBRATE AFTER WE WIN !!!!!!!:D

One last thing for you to think about, we don't need anyone out of this race now, These warmongers split the votes and we should get most (hopefully all) of the anti-war vote ! Most of these primaries are winner take all or winner take the majority of delgates. That means we need to finish first statewide or congressionally. We have a better chance of victory if all these "bombthrowers" stay in the race !!! One recent poll had 37% of Republican ready to bring the troops home. Now we need to get them in RP's camp. We can win the nomination with 37% of the vote if we face 9 or 10 warmongers splitting votes through Tsunami Tuesday...IF we get his name and message out !

PEACE...

It is ONLY 200 days until Tsunami Tuesday, are you ready to hit the streets for Ron Paul 2008 THIS WEEK ?!?!?!? I AM ! Hope to place RP lit in waiting rooms of hospitals, doctors & dentist's offices, etc.this week.

[Noodles]

Preach on, brother. Can I get a witness?

Best post I've read on this forum. Ever.