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View Full Version : What percentage of the population turn out to vote in primaries?




DJ RP
07-18-2007, 02:34 AM
Hey guys, I'm not actually from the States but following the campaign eagerly.

Something I'm not sure about but maybe has been discussed before is: how many people actually turn out to vote in primaries? I have heard that voter turnout for the actual presidential election is LOW like 40% or less or something so my question is what is the percentage that turns out on average for primaries? I would guess it MUST be less so what are the implications for Ron Paul?

Ron Paul supporters are passionate and sure to turn out and vote. People who pick up the phone and say "yeah I'll vote for romney" to a pollster are surely much more likely not to turn out and vote? Am I off base here? How many people vote in these things??!?1

Delaware
07-18-2007, 02:37 AM
Since people are more enthusiastic about Ron Paul, that means he could have a greater percentage of votes in the primary compared to his normal polling numbers.

Roxi
07-18-2007, 02:38 AM
i think it used to be 30%...or somewhere in that range......this election because of RP i think it will be like 70% :D

JasonM
07-18-2007, 03:01 AM
less than 20% of the population usually turns out for primaries. During the 2006 midterms, I think about 6% of the republicans actually voted in the primaries for their particular candidate in congress seeking their party's nomination, with something like 12% of democrats voting in the primaries when Kerry on the ballot seeking the nomination of the party. But don't quote me on that.

Turnout for primaries is very very low usually.

DJ RP
07-18-2007, 03:04 AM
That's great! What with the split vote amongst the uninspiring same old same old a random polling of 5% for ron paul actually means like 20% because ron paul supporters WILL VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES!

JasonM
07-18-2007, 03:10 AM
yes. If only 3rd parties realized just how much more impact they would have if they only tried to get their candidate into a major party's nomination instead of going for the futile effort of running for president. The Libertarian party would have a much greater punch if they got more involved in the Republican primaries, and voted as a movement for "their guy".

Electrostatic
07-18-2007, 03:20 AM
Don't forget the CAUCUSES though... Those are not voted on by the general population...

j650
07-18-2007, 03:54 AM
Looks like there were about 90,000 votes cast for Republicans in the 2000 Iowa caucuses out of about 3,000,000 population, which is only 3%. Bush won it with 35,000 votes. The total population is about the same so it might be similar numbers next year. A lot of people might be more inspired to vote this year with everything in such a mess, but on the other hand they might be even more disgusted and won't vote. Alan Keyes managed to get 12,000 votes in 2000 on a similar message so ideally Dr. Paul will improve on that.

Gee
07-18-2007, 04:14 AM
Don't forget the GOP lost a lot of its members, so its base is even smaller than the GOP half of the 20-30% who vote in the primaries. I don't think there is any chance we'll get as much of a GOP turnout as a democratic one.

If a non-mainstream candidate is going to get elected, its going to happen this year...

JasonM
07-18-2007, 04:35 AM
yes, most definitely. With McCain out of the running due to the amnesty bill that went down in flames, and the other 2 "top tier" candidates basically RINOs (what do you expect from a candidate from New York or Massechusetts?), there is only Fred Thompson left for the conservatives, and he hasn't declared yet. Plus, once his record about abortion comes out, he will be shred to pieces, leaving only the "2nd tier candidates". Like Ron Paul or Huckabee, and some of them will be out before the primaries come out.

Roxi
07-18-2007, 10:15 AM
my grandma told me a lot of her older friends aren't voting because they are disgusted and don't have a good candidate to vote for....of course she got a ron paul education and is now voting for him and hopefully telling all her friends to as well

Bradley in DC
07-18-2007, 10:49 AM
A lot of factors go into this question.

In different states, there will be different races on the ballot (Senate, governor, referenda, etc.) that drive turnout. The primary vote on the Republican side, based just on the presidential race, should be higher: first time in eight years there's a contested Republican presidential primary.

Of course, if the weather's bad fewer people might vote. :rolleyes:

Johnnybags
07-18-2007, 11:07 AM
my grandma told me a lot of her older friends aren't voting because they are disgusted and don't have a good candidate to vote for....of course she got a ron paul education and is now voting for him and hopefully telling all her friends to as well



Go to the elderly homes and do a presentation in the lobby and send a shool bus by to pickem all up? They need to be educated, they are being"out FOX ed"

Zeeder
07-18-2007, 11:47 AM
Here in Georgia about 630,000 people voted in the 2000 Republican primary.
The libertarian candidate for Governor last year received 77,000 votes. That tells me Ron Paul has a real chance of pulling an upset here.
I wasn't one of those who voted in the primary last time, and neither were 4 people I know are voting for paul.

Libertarians need to vote in the primaries. Then, if Paul still loses, they can go back and vote for the libertarian as a protest vote...........cause he sure isn't going to win, if Paul can't.
This is the type of candidacy that needs to happen everytime.