Ron Paul 3rd: 14% in NH

[Elwar]

Today's Rasmussen tracking poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary) puts Ron Paul at third place for 14%:

McCain 31%
Romney 26%
Ron Paul 14%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 5%

from dailypaul.com

[TwiLeXia]

NICE!!

And for once I actually trust these polls.

We need to keep Huckabee down and make sure McCain comes back down too.

[AFTFNJ]

God Bless Ron Paul!

[voytechs]

F**K YEAH!!!! Sorry, got a little excitted.

[itshappening]

Now For A Late Surge !!

[Paul10]

....

[ronpaulfollower999]

F**K YEAH!!!! Sorry, got a little excitted.

QFT

[walt]

FOX be sweattin

[GHoeberX]

That's good news :)

[Derek]

Haha, this is awesome! What on earth would prompt a sudden jump like this in traditional polls?

:confused:

[torchbearer]

He was probably polling 14% for awhile, they just haven't reported it that way until right before the NH primary so their polling numbers will be closer to the actual results.... similar to what they did in Iowa. He was at 1-4% until the last week polls with put him up at 7-10%.

[TheBaz]

And the Paul supports are 83% sure to not change their minds! Far and above the others.

[Elwar]

The Republican race remains fluid as nearly a third of GOP voters say they could still change their mind. Sixty-four percent (64%) of McCain’s voters say they are “certain” they will vote for him. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Romney supporters are that certain along with 83% of Ron Paul voters and 66% for Mike Huckabee.

[AtomiC]

Wow that's amazing.

I expect the numbers to be a little higher though.

[OptionsTrader]

McCain is at 31%.

Got to get this video more exposure...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf7HYoh9YMM

[RonRules]

Rasmussen has been very low before, so 14% actually means 18% !!

[bolidew]

Remember we exceeded all polls indicated in IOWA!

so I can safely say we have at least 14% votes in NH!

[AlexMerced]

Haha, this is awesome! What on earth would prompt a sudden jump like this in traditional polls?

:confused:

the results of iowa motivated everyone to push harder

[GHoeberX]

Now I want to see all these msm newspages putting up this result, as they always use rasmussen reports..

I remember months ago when they didn't even poll him... We've come a long way :D

[Paul10]

....

[tsetsefly]

suckabee 3 points behind haha

[OKRonPaul]

Guys, I think this is great, but read the bottom, it's not a traditional phone poll:

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

[Badger Paul]

Gee, and all this for fifth place finish in Iowa. My God people's expectations of must have been really, really low to see what did in Iowa a "victory." They thought we were LaRouchies.

No sir.

[itsnobody]

WOW

The polls are highly accurate, at least they were for Iowa saying Ron Paul would be 5th

[quickmike]

The polls are accurate, It's just that they don't include everyone else that Paul would get. Don't know what happened in Iowa though...

Do you really have to ask what happened in Iowa???? LOL

Remember, Pat Robertson came in second in that state when he ran.

Iowa doesnt even come close to representing the rest of the country.

Actually, im suprised Ron didnt come in dead last in Iowa.

[tsetsefly]

NICE!!

And for once I actually trust these polls.

We need to keep Huckabee down and make sure McCain comes back down too.

actually rasmussen was the poll that had us finishing behiind the ghoul at 6%...

[tsetsefly]

Guys, I think this is great, but read the bottom, it's not a traditional phone poll:

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

yeah but they where accurate on iowa... that is how the media interprets it..

[fireworks_god]

Do you really have to ask what happened in Iowa???? LOL

Remember, Pat Robertson came in second in that state when he ran.

Iowa doesnt even come close to representing the rest of the country.

Actually, im suprised Ron didnt come in dead last in Iowa.


Yeah, but we still FAILED to GET OUT THE VOTE. We could have easily taken third if we had fought harder, and the fact that it was Iowa has nothing to do with that.

[tsetsefly]

WOW

The polls are highly accurate, at least they were for Iowa saying Ron Paul would be 5th

well the problem in iowa was that young people did not turn out for us, old people dominated the caucuses, hopefully this will chang ein NH< and the "cell phone" issue will come into play...

[Sarge]

Take that FOX. This could not be more timely.

I wonder how many of McCains 64%, that won't change, will change after they hear the 100 year war is going to send there sons and daughters to war forever?

I hope Dr. Paul hits this one hard tonight. Who is going to pay? Where are all those troops coming from-draft?

[marcus3x]

Ron Paul needs to place 2nd or better in New Hampshire.

Paul needs to take advantage of the ABC debate and the Fox News exclusion. Paul should host a rally of thousands of supporters in close proximity to the Fox News forum.

[hasan]

i would rather keep an eye out for the zogby polls. they were the accurate ones in predicting iowa.

[brumans]

We need an ad on the 100 year war!

Is it too late to get this out?

I wish the media would report it.

[AlexMerced]

Yeah, but we still FAILED to GET OUT THE VOTE. We could have easily taken third if we had fought harder, and the fact that it was Iowa has nothing to do with that.

we wil learn from out mistakes, in NH the best part is the swing votes really screws up how much we'll get in the end

weere 3 point above our reasmussen numbers in iowa, but traditionally NH has seen HUGE boosts from the independant vote, so this is a very very interesting development

[GHoeberX]

Is it too late to get this out?

I wish the media would report it.

I think CNN might report it as they don't mind giving a republican a bad reputation

[stevedasbach]

Guys, I think this is great, but read the bottom, it's not a traditional phone poll:

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.


This is a traditional phone poll. Here's the link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary

[MRoCkEd]

I love Ron Paul and I'm not ashamed to say it

[bolidew]

independents are HUGELY important in NH, we have to fight Obama to get those votes out!!

[quickmike]

Yeah, but we still FAILED to GET OUT THE VOTE. We could have easily taken third if we had fought harder, and the fact that it was Iowa has nothing to do with that.

How can you "get out the vote" in a state that overwhelmingly doesnt vote for independant thinkers? New Hampshire is going to be very different from Iowa because of the very fact that theres a HUGE difference between those two states and the mindset of voters in those two states as a whole.

Ron will do great in NH. I just never expected much out of a state like Iowa.


Sorry.

[Driftar]

The polls are accurate, It's just that they don't include everyone else that Paul would get. Don't know what happened in Iowa though...

In iowa it came down to a case of too many Sheeple who either a) heard Paul's message and liked one of the others better or b) didn't know who the hell Paul was. I found out both directly at Cacus.

NH is different on both points. These people don't seem interested in voting for a guy who "loves Jesus" or "loves War" as much as Iowa.

[itsnobody]

These polls are a lot more accurate than some RP supporters would trick and deceive you into thinking, I mean just look at how accurate they were for Iowa

So this is GREAT news, polls DO matter, and polls ARE accurate

[Sey.Naci]

The polls are accurate, It's just that they don't include everyone else that Paul would get. Don't know what happened in Iowa though...RP did gain more than all polls forecast, however, even the Des Moines Register which had polled him the highest at 9%.

[LibertyEagle]

NH is different on both points. These people don't seem interested in voting for a guy who "loves Jesus" or "loves War" as much as Iowa.

Then why in hell is McCain leading in the polls?:confused:

[familydog]

I guess MCain is leading because they still see the same man they voted for in 2000. Straight talk express...or something. With Ron Paul in the race, he looks just like all the others now, the same as the others, not different. Too bad people don't realize it.

[Frans Kisner]

Hi guys,
I'm a Dutch who is living in Beijing. Since a lunatic socalled religius Muslim killed Theo v. Gogh I became interested why. From then on I became interested in what was globaly going on. And some months ago I stumbled onto Mr. Ron Paul ....on You tube. The way I see things now. When Ron Paul doesn't become your new president.....that will be realy bad for the whole world. Ron Paul is the only from all candidates who speaks open and honest. in my eyes he is also the only who makes the impression not to be corrupt. I'm only hoping that he is not going to get murdered when he is going to become your president. It looks that this killing of people who bring peace is commen procedure for those who are pulling the strings behind the scenes.......protect him well.

[proximity]

Nice!

Will we get 20% in NH?!! Go Ron Paul!

Get out and Vote!

[paulitics]

RP did gain more than all polls forecast, however, even the Des Moines Register which had polled him the highest at 9%.

true, and like usual, we cherry picked the highest polls. If one were to average the Iowa polls, I'm sure they were closer to 7%. A few short weeks ago, they averaged 4%. The polls were not dead on accurate for Paul or Thompson. In most primaries the polls are very unreliable because of a multitude of variables. They are better in predicting general election winners.

[paulitics]

Then why in hell is McCain leading in the polls?:confused:

NH media endorsed McCain. Imagine if they endorsed Ron Paul, he would be at 30% right now.

[fireworks_god]

How can you "get out the vote" in a state that overwhelmingly doesnt vote for independant thinkers? New Hampshire is going to be very different from Iowa because of the very fact that theres a HUGE difference between those two states and the mindset of voters in those two states as a whole.

Well, the margin between third and fifth was slim. I read something that stated that Official HQ had numbers of 10,000 more supporters that never made it?

I think the grass-roots can do a lot more towards reaching actual voters and selling them Ron Paul. Over the phone seems to be the most effective solution, since most of us can't get on the ground in these states. :)

I'm simply saying, if we had been more prepared with reaching voters and getting them into the caucuses to vote, we could have hit the third we expected! :)

[Bradley in DC]

Haha, this is awesome! What on earth would prompt a sudden jump like this in traditional polls?

:confused:

A LOT of money spent on the positive bio and issue ads and mailings about Dr. Paul.

[Mithridates]

Hi guys,
I'm a Dutch who is living in Beijing. Since a lunatic socalled religius Muslim killed Theo v. Gogh I became interested why. From then on I became interested in what was globaly going on. And some months ago I stumbled onto Mr. Ron Paul ....on You tube. The way I see things now. When Ron Paul doesn't become your new president.....that will be realy bad for the whole world. Ron Paul is the only from all candidates who speaks open and honest. in my eyes he is also the only who makes the impression not to be corrupt. I'm only hoping that he is not going to get murdered when he is going to become your president. It looks that this killing of people who bring peace is commen procedure for those who are pulling the strings behind the scenes.......protect him well.

Nice to see you here. I'm a Canadian living in Korea. *^^*

[Bradley in DC]

Then why in hell is McCain leading in the polls?:confused:

Character issues. Policy issue attacks aren't going to work.

[ItDoesNotStopWithRonPaul]

Ron Paul needs to place 2nd or better in New Hampshire.

Paul needs to take advantage of the ABC debate and the Fox News exclusion. Paul should host a rally of thousands of supporters in close proximity to the Fox News forum.

And chant "Ron Paul!!!" so loud that the forum can't be conducted. CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE time....

[Bradley in DC]

well the problem in iowa was that young people did not turn out for us, old people dominated the caucuses, hopefully this will chang ein NH< and the "cell phone" issue will come into play...

Dr. Paul did well in the college towns, yes, there just aren't very many kids that decide elections. This is not going to change. There is no "cell phone" issue.

[Paulbot_9876]

what are being used to count the votes there??????

[skinzterpswizfan]

I think the major problem in Iowa was the server that had 17,000 names and numbers of people that would caucus for Ron Paul got screwed up the day of the election. Let's hope they have their files backed up in New Hampshire.

[quickmike]

Well, the margin between third and fifth was slim. I read something that stated that Official HQ had numbers of 10,000 more supporters that never made it?

I think the grass-roots can do a lot more towards reaching actual voters and selling them Ron Paul. Over the phone seems to be the most effective solution, since most of us can't get on the ground in these states. :)

I'm simply saying, if we had been more prepared with reaching voters and getting them into the caucuses to vote, we could have hit the third we expected! :)

Yeah, I hear ya. I just never had much hope for Iowa but I definitely do for NH, MI, NV, CA, and alot of southern states.

Just remember, only 2 elected presidents won in Iowa................ EVER:)(W Bush and Carter, two of the crappiest presidents weve ever had)

[rollingpig]

amazing amazing

[fuzzybekool]

I hope McCain's 100 years in Iraq comment ruins his campaign.

[Molly1]

NH media endorsed McCain. Imagine if they endorsed Ron Paul, he would be at 30% right now.

It's time for the people to send the corrupt media a message!

We cannot be brainwashed!

[fireworks_god]

Yeah, I hear ya. I just never had much hope for Iowa but I definitely do for NH, MI, NV, CA, and alot of southern states.

Just remember, only 2 elected presidents won in Iowa................ EVER:)(W Bush and Carter, two of the crappiest presidents weve ever had)

I know, I think our chances coming out of Iowa are wonderful, I just see it as reality giving us a textbook on what we need to learn and do in order to WIN. :)

[RP-Republican]

Forget the polls. The only county we won in Iowa was Jefferson county, copy what they did run ads in your local papers (it's cheap) and door to door canvassing.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=75102

[Molly1]

In iowa it came down to a case of too many Sheeple who either a) heard Paul's message and liked one of the others better or b) didn't know who the hell Paul was. I found out both directly at Cacus.

NH is different on both points. These people don't seem interested in voting for a guy who "loves Jesus" or "loves War" as much as Iowa.

Ron Paul loves Jesus. You can tell that by his acts.

He just doesn't shout it all over the marketplace like the false prophet, Huckabee.

[fireworks_god]

Great idea about the local papers. I'm about to go dig up information on South Carolina's information (as soon as I find out how we can get South Carolina's voting list).

We have a lot of great ideas, we need to organize in the Win In South Carolina forum and start making it HAPPEN! :)

[xmykro]

Keep the momentum going baby! We need to win this!

If he wins the media will not be able to ignore anymore.

[quickmike]

I know, I think our chances coming out of Iowa are wonderful, I just see it as reality giving us a textbook on what we need to learn and do in order to WIN. :)

Yep, and then its off to Washington DC to take back the whitehouse........... YAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

[Molly1]

That's the scary part. I can't believe Mitt's ads are doing nothing to stop it! We need an ad on the 100 year war!

The McCain/Lieberman 100 years war!

Let's cram the truth down their throats.

I agree, an ad showing the truth to New Hampshire.

[colecrowe]

Guys, I think this is great, but read the bottom, it's not a traditional phone poll:

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

THAT IS ABSOLUTELY FALSE!

That paragraph only refers to the Rasmussen Market numbers cited. This is a traditional phone poll.

[Molly1]

McCain wants 100 years of war.

What do you want, New Hampshire?

Peace?

VOTE RON PAUL

[colecrowe]

The McCain/Lieberman 100 years war!

Let's cram the truth down their throats.

I agree, an ad showing the truth to New Hampshire.

DIGG: http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/McCain_100_years_in_Iraq


what is HQ's phone #? I think we need as many ppl as humanly possible calling HQ to let them know about the McCain 100 year message...they may not even know yet...WE NEED TO MAKE THIS A BIG DEAL

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/contact/

703-248-9115

He has to hit him hard on this. Not for a gimmick or a strategy, but because the people should know the truth and know how important it is.

BUT much more importantly, he ALSO must, in this debate, and in ads or however for the next few days, hit Obama on the war (not out til at least 2013) (as well as the patriot act, and taxes).

If he (and his Campaign) does not do this strongly, they may be giving up 5-10 or more percentage points. We need boldness and a shouted, strong message that defines him as better and necessary.

story: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jon-soltz/a-million-years-in-iraq_b_79798.html

video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFknKVjuyNk

[newmedia4ron]

Stop assuming we're going to do well. Communications broke down in Iowa we to help NH organize right now. Leave no stone unturned! Don't assume HQ has anything covered!

Get this out there too:
Stress to close apathetic friends/family how much this means to you (Its not like you're lying you're here right). All your asking is for one day of their time.

How many times have they dragged you to bad films and such. They owe you.

(If they agree to do it for you make sure they are registered and make sure you drag them the to the polling place when the time comes)

If every NH Ron Paul supporter brought 3 people into the primary who were never going to vote for anyone in the first place, we QUADRUPLE OUR EXPECTED TURNOUT!

Lets get this viral. You Plus 3. You Plus 3. You Plus 3. You Plus 3......

Note:I'm not saying to to try and convert your 100% neocon father or your 100% liberal activist sister. Everyone has family members or friends that are apathetic and might do this one time only thing because you show them how important this is to you.

Bring the waterworks if you have to.
Promise them a huge party or something, we can do this!

[lvp1138]

independents are HUGELY important in NH, we have to fight Obama to get those votes out!!

That can be a double edge sword... in a way we want to get votes from Obama, but not too many that Clinton would win the nomination.

Even though I know Ron Paul would eat Hillary alive in a debate, unfortunately, not many people watch those. People will go vote for Hillary because of name recognition and she's got the majority of the female vote.

So... we do want Obama or Edwards to win the democratic nomination to level the field. Not Clinton.

[hazek]

These polls are a lot more accurate than some RP supporters would trick and deceive you into thinking, I mean just look at how accurate they were for Iowa

So this is GREAT news, polls DO matter, and polls ARE accurate

What!? Are you stupid?! Where have you been for the past month? O M G!

THE POLLS ARE NOT ACCURATE, PERIOD.




It's this kind of talk that gives the Old media the power to rant about those stupid, manipulative, rigged and bias polls as IF they actually predicted something. Ron placed higher than ANY poll predicted in Iowa and if you seriously think it didn't hurt his performance how the media reported on his actual support, then you seriously need to see a brain doctor to check if you even have one.

I mean WTF.

We had recordings of polls doing fishy stuff, we know Ron attracts a lot of Dems and Independents that are probably missed in these polls, we know the typical Ron supporter does not own a land line and yet despite ALL THIS EVIDENCE AND ACTUAL RESULTS you are still going to continue to give credit to the media so that they can continue being the most awesome god damn propaganda machine in the whole world?!!?!?



Seriously, man just get the F out of here CAUSE YOU F***ING PISS ME OFF.

[Molly1]

DIGG: http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/McCain_100_years_in_Iraq



http://www.ronpaul2008.com/contact/

703-248-9115

He has to hit him hard on this. Not for a gimmick or a strategy, but because the people should know the truth and know how important it is.

BUT much more importantly, he ALSO must, in this debate, and in ads or however for the next few days, hit Obama on the war (not out til at least 2013) (as well as the patriot act, and taxes).

If he (and his Campaign) does not do this strongly, they may be giving up 5-10 or more percentage points. We need boldness and a shouted, strong message that defines him as better and necessary.

story: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jon-soltz/a-million-years-in-iraq_b_79798.html

video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFknKVjuyNk

I heard Obama say he didn't know if he could pull the troops out by 2013. I heard him say this in a debate.

His supporters need to hear this.

Now he's changing his tune and promoting some vague 18 month pullout but he doesn't say how many he's going to be leaving there.

Obama speaks with forked tongue. He has globalist backers.

The New Hampshire independents need to know this.

[atthegates]

THANK GOD...best news of the weekend

[Liberty]

He was probably polling 14% for awhile, they just haven't reported it that way until right before the NH primary so their polling numbers will be closer to the actual results.... similar to what they did in Iowa. He was at 1-4% until the last week polls with put him up at 7-10%.

I agree. Keeping the numbers low suppressed support for Paul as potential supporters didn't think he was a viable candidate.
Also, a poll conducted by LA Times/Bloomberg had Paul at 2% right before the Iowa caucus and that poll was plastered all over MSM. Turns out they were a little off. And now the Fox exclusion. Do you think they might have discussed ways to use the polls to justify excluding Paul?

[slantedview]

booyah!

[Frossty]

Keep it up! we are gaining ground.

[ItsTime]

People on on the ground RIGHT NOW in New Hampshire going to every ROn Paul supporters house to see if they need rides, babysitting whatever it takes to get them to the polls!

[MGreen]

Haha, this is awesome! What on earth would prompt a sudden jump like this in traditional polls?
Because, though it may have been disappointing for us, 10% and being competitive for 3rd in Iowa was very big, especially for those who thought Paul had no chance.

I'm sure there are many factors, but we can't think we didn't get any momentum from Iowa, even though we placed 5th.

[werdd]

nice, we probably picked up some independents as well, we were at 28% maybe 36% now?

[d991]

Was this 14% only from REPUBLICAN voters in NH?!?

[MRoCkEd]

Was this 14% only from REPUBLICAN voters in NH?!?
good q

[Brennon]

"Survey of 441 Likely GOP Voters January 4, 2008"

I'm not sure if independents are included in 'likely GOP voters'.:confused:

[Karsten]

"Survey of 441 Likely GOP Voters January 4, 2008"

I'm not sure if independents are included in 'likely GOP voters'.:confused:

We need to find out exactly how they choose "likely GOP voters." Since we KNOW that RP won the independent vote in IA, this could make all the difference in NH.

[txrep]

American Research Group Tracking Poll
(600 Likely Voters/Jan 4-5/MOE 4.0)
Hold on your breath. This is after Rasmussen complete POST IOWA Polling)

Republican Primary
John McCain 39 %
Mitt Romney 25 %
Mike Huckabee 14 %
Rudy Giuliani 7 %
Ron Paul 6 %
Fred Thompson 1 %
Duncan Hunter 1 %
Alan Keyes 1 %
Undecided 6 %

**factors in independents**


Independents broke for McCain (44%). Paul got 7%.

[jd603]

Never heard of them, don't trust results... plenty of crap polls out there.


American Research Group Tracking Poll
(600 Likely Voters/Jan 4-5/MOE 4.0)
Hold on your breath. This is after Rasmussen complete POST IOWA Polling)

Republican Primary
John McCain 39 %
Mitt Romney 25 %
Mike Huckabee 14 %
Rudy Giuliani 7 %
Ron Paul 6 %
Fred Thompson 1 %
Duncan Hunter 1 %
Alan Keyes 1 %
Undecided 6 %

**factors in independents**


Independents broke for McCain (44%). Paul got 7%.

[txrep]

ARG is a local NH firm. They have a history (along with UNH) of being the best at polling the NH primary.

[hellsingfan]

don't let this dellude anybody that we don't need work done there. TAKE NOTHING for GRANTED. EVEN Alaska or Nevada. We need to get maximum amount of delegates, not just wins!!

[Falseflagop]

We need for RON PAUL to open the independents eyes on the WAR and call out OBAMA today and Edwards and Hillary!! He is the only hope to end the war!

[RevolutionSD]

WHY would independents go for McCain???????
He is absolutely NO DIFFERENT than Bush!!!!!
He is the worst kind of neocon and wants our troops getting blown up in Iraq for 100 more years! McCain is a washed up joke only supported by special interests and cronies!
Independents would be absolute FOOLS to vote McCain!! Didn't they learn from 2000?

[jd603]

McCain has some support here, but nothing compared to Ron so I don't understand this poll.

The NH company that worked with CNN in the early debates was completely fraudulent though. Is this the same group? They were as bad as Frank Luntz.




WHY would independents go for McCain???????
He is absolutely NO DIFFERENT than Bush!!!!!
He is the worst kind of neocon and wants our troops getting blown up in Iraq for 100 more years! McCain is a washed up joke only supported by special interests and cronies!
Independents would be absolute FOOLS to vote McCain!! Didn't they learn from 2000?

[jd603]

They weren't , they would have said so...


"Survey of 441 Likely GOP Voters January 4, 2008"

I'm not sure if independents are included in 'likely GOP voters'.:confused:

[Driftar]

Bump- keep things positive.

[Ball]

McCain is at 31%.

Got to get this video more exposure...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf7HYoh9YMM

"Make it 100"
:eek::eek::eek:

[Terry82]

Never heard of them, don't trust results... plenty of crap polls out there.

You're delusional, paranoid, and spread misinformation widely. Give us an example of some 'non-crap' polls then?

NO POLL ignores what you guys consider independents and other groups. It would be stupid and meaningless in almost ANY STATE to disregard them, and they aren't unless the poll specifically states it only accounts for registered republicans or some other specific group.

Likely GOP primary voters means exactly what it says, people that are likely to vote in the upcoming GOP primary, be they independents, first time voters, republicans, or registered democrats just weeks ago.

[all J's in IL for RP]

ARG is a local NH firm. They have a history (along with UNH) of being the best at polling the NH primary.

ARG had us at 6% going into Iowa, with Guliani at 8% and Hunter with 4%. Their reliability rating with the campaigns and other pollsters is low.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

[Terry82]

Their reliability rating with the campaigns and other pollsters is low.

And the worst pollster on that list is apparently Zogby, which almost nailed the predictions.

[DanK]

Guys, I think this is great, but read the bottom, it's not a traditional phone poll:

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Reading the fine print is good, but make sure you catch all of it. That was referring to this paragraph, which was right above it on the page:

Rasmussen Markets data at 9:00 a.m. on Saturday morning suggest that John McCain has a 73% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a 24% chance of winning (current numbers: McCain 81.9 %, Romney 18.8 %)

The tracking poll with RP at 14% was indeed a traditional phone poll.