From everything I am reading NH is the real Acid Test.

[ProBlue33]

NH is super critical for the bounce needed for the rest of the primaries.

The Iowa GOP is an aberation of people who are deep in in the Bush base.

The fact that people are looking at Paul because he got 10% in neo-con infested state is actually very positive.

However to send people a strongest possible message that a Ron Paul vote is not a wasted vote, he MUST place third or better in NH.

I say that because if he doesn't we are going to have even more borderline people jumping ship. I never realized until last night how important it is to SOME people to back a winner that they favour.

Obama seems to be the favorite cross over jump, partly because of the ABH thinking, and lets face it the GOP has nothing but Paul.

I hate to say it but 5th in NH is death to Pauls chances, just being realistic.

1st or 2nd and even third, really opens up a whole new wave of voters, that want to vote for Paul but don't want to waste their vote. I would give Paul a huge bounce into giga tuesday.

[ProBlue33]

More people are saying it too now, third or better in NH.

Man I hope they are pushing hard out there.

[davidt!]

We HAVE to get a 3rd place finish in NH.

[crazyfacedjenkins]

The momentum will really take a hit if we can't get it. But we can still win after that...

[coboman]

Zogby poll has us with 7%. To place 3rd we would have more than 13%.

That is a 6% error. Impossible.

Get used to the idea. 5th is what we can get. 4th is as much as we can aspire.

[ProBlue33]

If we can't beat McCain after that insane 100 years in Iraq comment, it's hopeless. It means most Americans are just too damm stupid. And that is the honest brutal truth.

[Goldwater Conservative]

Zogby poll has us with 7%. To place 3rd we would have more than 13%.

That is a 6% error. Impossible.

Get used to the idea. 5th is what we can get. 4th is as much as we can aspire.

It's far better to go by poll averages, and those have us three points from third (Julie's 10 vs. Paul's 7). For comparison, Paul beat the RCP averages in Iowa by 37% (10 vs. 7.3), while Julie fared worse by 42% (3.5 vs. 6). Also, we don't have any post-Iowa polls yet (and will have very few in time for the NH primary).

And while the polls did okay overall, they've been known to fail before. Think Pat Buchanan in '96.

[rfbz]

man could you imagine if someone made an ad out of that "100 years in Iraq" clip and broadcasted it all over NH? Maybe we should send that clip to Romney, he's got the money to do it

[xtravar]

If we can't beat McCain after that insane 100 years in Iraq comment, it's hopeless. It means most Americans are just too damm stupid. And that is the honest brutal truth.

They're not stupid - just ill informed. I'd love that the "100 years" comment get out to every voter in NH, but we must be realistic.

[Micahyah]

ARG at least has us in 4th.

I think everything is going to come down to the debate tomorrow and Ron's performance.

Remember, Huckabee took off after that one debate where he left a good impression as Giuliani and Romney sniped at each other and looked like crap.

There will be a bunch of low interest voters watching the debate tomorrow who have vaguely heard about Paul being excluded by FOX and wondering what the big fuss is about.

If he can win over antiwar independents and republicans who don't want to vote for a democrat (there are tons of them), he can jump Huckabee and Giuliani and finish 3rd behind McCain and Romney.

Huckabee has no ground game in New Hampshire. Giuliani has fell big time in the last month.

We can bump up to 3rd. And we need to.

[dircha]

Zogby poll has us with 7%. To place 3rd we would have more than 13%.

That is a 6% error. Impossible.

Get used to the idea. 5th is what we can get. 4th is as much as we can aspire.

I'd agree that it seems outside the realm of possibility to beat McCain or Romney.

However, we can't rule 3rd out, because we have no post-Iowa polling data to go on. I tend to think Huckabee's victory in Iowa widens his lead over us in New Hampshire, putting us at 4th or worse, but at the same time we really don't know how his win will impact his New Hampshire showing; it might have no impact, in which case 3rd is within the margin of error of the pre-Iowa polls.

So I'd correct your statement to suggest that 3rd, not 4th is as much as we can aspire to.

[mrd]

We all know NH is important, just as IA was. What we don't need is someone telling us if we don't make third we are a failure.

Be productive, damnit. You have a brain, you are here. Take advantage of it.

The question is, what are the various possible outcomes? How should the grassroots react to each? That's the goddamn question. Answer that, and you'll be ahead of the game.

[ProBlue33]

We must beat Fred and Rudy, and beating Huckabee would be the best.

We must be seen as on the upswing, so many people have "wasted vote syndrome" & "I backed a winner syndrome" we need to move up this round

[dircha]

We must beat Fred and Rudy, and beating Huckabee would be the best.

I think this is the campaign's strategy in attacking Huckabee in New Hampshire with the mailings.

I think they project Huckabee sitting just a few points ahead of us in 3rd, and they want to try to erode some of his anti-tax, anti-IRS support as part of their strategy to get us into 3rd.

[sasha_2008]

It may come down to the number of delegates. We need to keep pushing through Super Tuesday. The bulk of his support is in the west. We could pick up delegates tomorrow in Wyoming.

If you have McCain take NH, Thompson take South Carolina, Rudy take Florida, Ron Paul take Nevada and maybe Michigan. Who knows??

Just don't give up until after Super Tuesday.

[Terry82]

It's far better to go by poll averages

There's no statistical reasoning to back this statement. An average of an average of random sampling has no reason to be any more accurate than any single sample, and brings along with it only an increased standard deviation.

[LFOD]

If we can't beat McCain after that insane 100 years in Iraq comment, it's hopeless. It means most Americans are just too damm stupid. And that is the honest brutal truth.

Let's hope as much of NH as possible learns of McCain's 100 year war. If they know, and vote for him anyway, you're 100% right.