Pay attention to Zogby polls

[klamath]

Now is the time to get realistic about the polls but not all of the polls are right. Of all years I have been watching polls only one is consistently within a few percentage points of the actual vote and that is the Zogby poll. He called Iowa within a few percentage points. He has been the most accurate of all polls and now has a reputation to uphold as far as being accurate.
In order to gage our progress we need to watch Zogby and base our campaign efforts on his results.
Here is what we have to confront and base our statigy on. http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412
No more sticking our heads in the sand. Huckabee is not who we have to worry about in NH and we better pay attention to this poll.

I hope some of the new to politics folks have learned from Iowa and can put the lessons to work for our whole movement.

[coboman]

In order to gage our progress we need to watch Zogby and base our campaign efforts on his results.
FINALLY! Someone with common sense in these forums.

Well, sorry. But your comment has too much common sense and very little conspiracy mentality / positive thinking ("the Secret" style).

Therefore, you will be labeled as a troll and your thread will be ignored.

Better make a thread about how all polls are part of the propaganda machine, and how we will end up first place in NH because we believe we can.
Those are the kinds of threads that get 5 stars.

[jd603]

No , PLEASE USE YOUR BRAINS PEOPLE.

It is completely accurate, amongst previously registered republican Voters. In NH, first-time voters can register right before they vote AND independents can vote for ANY candidate. 50% of Nh is independent and Ron WON 1st place amongst Independents even in Iowa.

Add that all up and tell me what you've got.


So I'm willing to publicly state that the Zogby poll is in-accurate.

Edit: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412 , that is the poll for future reference so nobody gets confused in the future about what poll i'm talking about.

[Bradley in DC]

Zogby has one of the worst reputations and track records.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=69700

[Registered]

YES! That looks like a solid 5th place.

Just as wonderful as our 5th in Iowa.

At this pace, we will maybe get even 4th on February 5.

Wohoo!

[chiefsmurph]

klamath is right on.

and coboman sums up how i have felt about these boards lately.

[RON PAUL 4409]

stop Looking At Polls.............they Are A Fraud So Please Turn Your Stupid Propaganda Tube Off,, Shut This Thread Down And Get Your Ass Out The House And Wave A Sign Or Canvass

[jd603]

The NH GOP seems to think 3rd or better. I'm included in that group.



YES! That looks like a solid 5th place.

Just as wonderful as our 5th in Iowa.

At this pace, we will maybe get even 4th on February 5.

Wohoo!

[coboman]

So I'm willing to publicly state that the Zogby poll is in-accurate.

How inaccurate?

Inaccurate enough to follow the same path we have been following? Enough to not pressure HQ to hire people that have a clue of what a presidential campaign is?

Our amateur grassroots efforts, although very impressive and passionate, have been no match for the professional campaigns.

WE NEED HELP. Professional help, and we need it now.

The logistics for NH the day of the vote must be professional. They have to have buses, babysitter, food. Everything the other official campaigns have.

How many states will we have to loose to realize this?

[coboman]

Well, sorry. But your comment has too much common sense and very little conspiracy mentality / positive thinking ("the Secret" style).

Therefore, you will be labeled as a troll and your thread will be ignored.


stop Looking At Polls.............they Are A Fraud So Please Turn Your Stupid Propaganda Tube Off,, Shut This Thread Down And Get Your Ass Out The House And Wave A Sign Or Canvass

:Dhehe. Exactly as predicted

[jd603]

In-accurate in gauging Ron's finish in NH. Not in-accurate in how republicans will fare amongst strictly REPUBLICAN voters.


How inaccurate?

Inaccurate enough to follow the same path we have been following? Enough to not pressure HQ to hire people that have a clue of what a presidential campaign is?

Our amateur grassroots efforts, although very impressive and passionate, have been no match for the professional campaigns.

WE NEED HELP. Professional help, and we need it now.

The logistics for NH the day of the vote must be professional. They have to have buses, babysitter, food. Everything the other official campaigns have.

How many states will we have to loose to realize this?

[jd603]

Let me re-iterate yet again.

Zogby's latest poll only polled PREVIOUSLY REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS.

NH IS 50% INDEPENDENT.

FIRST TIME VOTERS CAN REGISTER AT THE POLLS IN NH.

RON WON THE INDEPENDENT VOTE IN IOWA, 1ST PLACE.


Zogby's poll is in-accurate in predicting Ron Paul's finish in NH, PERIOD.

[coboman]

In-accurate in gauging Ron's finish in NH. Not in-accurate in how republicans will fare amongst strictly REPUBLICAN voters.
Fair enough. I will stop pushing for a last minute change of strategy for NH.

Let's wait until Tuesday, and see what happens.

BUT, if we finish 5th or worse in NH, we MUST GET PROFESSIONAL HELP!


The grassroots effort in NH has been impressive. We cannot have a better grassroots in a better state, anywhere for the rest of the campaign.

If we loose, we have to push for a major change in the official campaign. We have to.

[slamhead]

realclearpolitics.com is dead on most of the time. I was able to predict Bush winning in 2004 the night before the election by averaging all the different polls. I even email people telling them he would get 247 electoral votes.

[jd603]

There's no such thing as "get professional help" for a grass roots campaign.

The thing is not the best organized but it is arguably the best organized grass roots campaign in History. :)

Don't pat yourselves on the back, be hard on yourselves, use that energy to get out and rally people to go vote!



Fair enough. I will stop pushing for a last minute change of strategy for NH.

Let's wait until Tuesday, and see what happens.

BUT, if we finish 5th or worse in NH, we MUST GET PROFESSIONAL HELP!


The grassroots effort in NH has been impressive. We cannot have a better grassroots in a better state, anywhere for the rest of the campaign.

If we loose, we have to push for a major change in the official campaign. We have to.

[jd603]

I'm looking... where is their methodology printed? I'm guessing they again ignored independents but I'd need to see details...

Oh I see, yes again these polls are splitting dems/republicans and ignoring independents ... I think these will also be flawed for Paul in NH. Paul is a unique bird, he's taking some votes from all parties and will have strong independent support (as proven in Iowa).




realclearpolitics.com is dead on most of the time. I was able to predict Bush winning in 2004 the night before the election by averaging all the different polls. I even email people telling them he would get 247 electoral votes.

[DealzOnWheelz]

guys ron paul won independants on the republican side but overall Obama decimated the independant vote

all we can hope for is that some of OBAMA's independants in NH decide to vote at the republican primary to make sure they don't get a pro war republican in

[DRV45N05]

Zogby himself has predicted that Ron would get at least 18% in NH.

[jd603]

A majority of the country will be voting Democrat this election, as planned. The goal is not to get more independent votes than Obama, the goal is get the most independent votes amongst republicans, have a strong showing in NH and continue on to win the Nomination, then we can begin going after Democrat votes for the general election.



guys ron paul won independants on the republican side but overall Obama decimated the independant vote

all we can hope for is that some of OBAMA's independants in NH decide to vote at the republican primary to make sure they don't get a pro war republican in

[klamath]

Zogby has one of the worst reputations and track records.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=69700

This looks real inaccurate doesn't it.
This is Zogby's polling versus the actual results in Iowa.
GOP Actual vote percentages
Final R/C/Zogby Results:

Huckabee
34%
31%

Romney
25%
25%

Thompson
13%
11%

McCain
13%
10%

Paul
10%
10%


I don't care about what others say about polls. I have followed Zogby myself and and for the most part he gets real close.
I never brought this up before Iowa because I was really hoping there was a huge voter demographic shift that would prove all the polls were using the wrong sampling techniques but that was not the case.
It is still a few days away from NH and the numbers will change. Personally I hope the hell he is wrong but I am not deluding myself any more about how many straw polls or online polls we have won and how they are not counting the right people.

[jd603]

One poll is hardly a reputation and I dis-regarded Iowa's election before it even happened due to their COMPUTERIZED CLOSED PRIVATE voting. ...and yes that is exactly what they had. Each precinct dialed into a COMPUTER to report their results. I'm sorry but there's no way to verify the results of the vote in Iowa as accurate and I completely dis-regard them.

We need much tougher election standards in some places, Iowa is one of the states that needs help.

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/ has a number of complaints too. They also mention the computerized voting in a previously article.




This looks real inaccurate doesn't it.
This is Zogby's polling versus the actual results in Iowa.
GOP Actual vote percentages
Final R/C/Zogby Results:
<snip>


I don't care about what others say about polls. I have followed Zogby myself and and for the most part he gets real close.
I never brought this up before Iowa because I was really hoping there was a huge voter demographic shift that would prove all the polls were using the wrong sampling techniques but that was not the case.
It is still a few days away from NH and the numbers will change. Personally I hope the hell he is wrong but I am not deluding myself any more about how many straw polls or online polls we have won and how they are not counting the right people.

[LFOD]

One poll is hardly a reputation and I dis-regarded Iowa's election before it even happened due to their COMPUTERIZED CLOSED PRIVATE voting. ...and yes that is exactly what they had. Each precinct dialed into a COMPUTER to report their results. I'm sorry but there's no way to verify the results of the vote in Iowa as accurate and I completely dis-regard them.

We need much tougher election standards in some places, Iowa is one of the states that needs help.

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/ has a number of complaints too. They also mention the computerized voting in a previously article.

Well here's a completely independent effort at tracking the vote which relied directly upon reports from people attending the caucus.

http://www.libertybroadcastnetwork.org/

Ron Paul: 10% 5th place.

Still feel like there was a conspiracy?

[coboman]

There's no such thing as "get professional help" for a grass roots campaign.

No, I don't mean the grassroots. I mean the Official Campaign.

We need a competent Official Campaign, or we are going to loose this.

[jd603]

I didn't say there WAS a "conspiracy" , I said the votes cannot be validated. It is a flawed process if there was fraud or not. Also, read blackboxvoting's issues, they are not just with the computerized voting.

This site looks like a good idea. ... I see many precincts that have "No reports for this precinct - please check back later." ,,, What is their total number of volunteers? There are 1,800 precincts, they only need to skew a little to shift Paul from 3rd to 5th.

Honestly though, Iowa is a weird state regardless.

6. Rudy Giuliani 666 <-- that is hilarious.




Well here's a completely independent effort at tracking the vote which relied directly upon reports from people attending the caucus.

http://www.libertybroadcastnetwork.org/

Ron Paul: 10% 5th place.

Still feel like there was a conspiracy?

[jd603]

Oh I agree, I think they are missing the mark on some things. Like mailing to only the existing GOP in NH, they should have some mailings that target Dems/Indis etc. They sent too many mailings to the GOP too, should have sent some of those to Dems etc.




No, I don't mean the grassroots. I mean the Official Campaign.

We need a competent Official Campaign, or we are going to loose this.

[klamath]

Oh I agree, I think they are missing the mark on some things. Like mailing to only the existing GOP in NH, they should have some mailings that target Dems/Indis etc. They sent too many mailings to the GOP too, should have sent some of those to Dems etc.

I see you are from NH. It is my impression that the dems connot vote for a republican unless they regestered republican 3 months ago? If this is the case why waste money mailing material to the dems.

[RobS]

Iowa and New Hampshire are two completely different states, completely different ways of voting.

I GUARANTEE we will have more than 7%. How much more? I don't know. Zogby isn't inaccurate, they just aren't polling the 50% of independents in the State.

[klamath]

Iowa and New Hampshire are two completely different states, completely different ways of voting.

I GUARANTEE we will have more than 7%. How much more? I don't know. Zogby isn't inaccurate, they just aren't polling the 50% of independents in the State.

We will see. I hope myself and Zogby are complete fools. I will be the happiest Fool in the world:D

[jd603]

Are you trying to make me look bad? :)

They could have SWITCHED parties, you could do that up until about 1.5 months ago. Obviously mailing NOW would be a waste.


I see you are from NH. It is my impression that the dems connot vote for a republican unless they regestered republican 3 months ago? If this is the case why waste money mailing material to the dems.

[voytechs]

Let me re-iterate yet again.

Zogby's latest poll only polled PREVIOUSLY REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS.

NH IS 50% INDEPENDENT.

FIRST TIME VOTERS CAN REGISTER AT THE POLLS IN NH.

RON WON THE INDEPENDENT VOTE IN IOWA, 1ST PLACE.


Zogby's poll is in-accurate in predicting Ron Paul's finish in NH, PERIOD.

Actually Obama won much bigger slice. These were independets voting for Obama instead of Dr. Paul. He receive 4 times more Independents that we did. He could hurt us in NH even though he's a dem. He still takes away our voters.

I'm hoping they are more informed in NH than they were in IA, since we've been campaigning there pretty hard.