jd603
01-04-2008, 07:09 PM
They did not poll Independents , only "Likely Republican voters" , in NH indi's can vote either party and Ron won the Indi vote in Iowa, thus the poll is completely worthless in testing Ron's standing in NH and I'd bet money on it personally. I wouldn't have bet a dime on Iowa because it's a weird state and the voting process is compromised anyway.
Ron will do much better than the latest Zogby poll shows, I'd bet $1,000,000 on it. :)
Edit: what's even more ironic is they go on to mention how important Indi voters are for their DEMOCRAT portion of the polling (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412).
---------------
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1247
"Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [Likely Republican Primary Voters].
The target sample is [1076] interviews with approximately [31] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[3] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[4] Weighting by [party, age, gender, religion] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups."
Ron will do much better than the latest Zogby poll shows, I'd bet $1,000,000 on it. :)
Edit: what's even more ironic is they go on to mention how important Indi voters are for their DEMOCRAT portion of the polling (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412).
---------------
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1247
"Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [Likely Republican Primary Voters].
The target sample is [1076] interviews with approximately [31] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[3] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[4] Weighting by [party, age, gender, religion] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups."