Bradley in DC
07-17-2007, 11:31 AM
Paul up at 1%. Other "upslope candidates" were Fred Thompson and Romney; variable were Huckabee and Tommy Thompson; "downslope" were Giuliani, McCain, Brownback and Tancredo.
Zogby: Clinton Builds Sturdy Lead; Thompson & Giuliani Battle for Top GOP Spot (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1336)
On the Republican side, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, as yet a non–candidate, has climbed to the top of the GOP leaderboard, winning 22% support, compared to 21% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains in third place with 11%. Arizona Sen. John McCain continues his dramatic slide, from second place in late May to fourth place now, supported by 9% of likely Republican voters nationwide.
One in four Republican voters are undecided, about the same as late May.
The latest Zogby International telephone survey was conducted July 12–14, 2007, and included 396 likely voting Democrats. It carries a margin of error of +/– 4.9 percentage points. The Republican segment included 364 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/– 5.2 percentage points.
Republicans July 14, 2007 May 20, 2007 Feb. 26, 2007
F. Thompson 22% 10% 7%
Giuliani 21% 26% 29%
Romney 11% 10% 9%
McCain 9% 13% 20%
Huckabee 5% 4% 7%
Brownback 2% 3% 4%
Hunter 1% 1% 1%
Tancredo Less than 1% 1% 1%
T. Thompson Less than 1% 1% Less than 1%
Paul 1% Less than 1% Less than 1%
Gilmore Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1%
Hagel Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1%
Someone else 2% 4% 4%
Not sure 25% 26% 19%
Thompson Winning Hearts in the Heartland
Republican Fred Thompson has built his tiny lead on strength of support in the South, from which he hails, and the Midwest. Rudy shines in the east, and Romney and Rudy are tied for tops in the West. McCain manages to eke out a third–place showing in the South, but is otherwise badly weakened following a bloody legislative loss over immigration reform and a spate of bad news about his campaign fund–raising woes and loss of staff. News reports have his campaign contracting to three key states – Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Thompson’s strongest appeal comes from those who consider themselves to be “very conservative,” as 35% in that group said they favored the former Tennessee Senator–turned–actor. Giuliani finished a distant third in that group, followed by Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. McCain finishes fifth among very conservative voters.
Among mainline conservatives – the largest subgroup of GOP voters – Giuliani wins 21%, compared to 20% for Thompson, 13% for Romney, and 12% for McCain.
However, those who support Giuliani and Thompson are also those Republicans who said they are most likely to change their minds before they vote in their state primary or caucus.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1200
Zogby: Clinton Builds Sturdy Lead; Thompson & Giuliani Battle for Top GOP Spot (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1336)
On the Republican side, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, as yet a non–candidate, has climbed to the top of the GOP leaderboard, winning 22% support, compared to 21% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains in third place with 11%. Arizona Sen. John McCain continues his dramatic slide, from second place in late May to fourth place now, supported by 9% of likely Republican voters nationwide.
One in four Republican voters are undecided, about the same as late May.
The latest Zogby International telephone survey was conducted July 12–14, 2007, and included 396 likely voting Democrats. It carries a margin of error of +/– 4.9 percentage points. The Republican segment included 364 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/– 5.2 percentage points.
Republicans July 14, 2007 May 20, 2007 Feb. 26, 2007
F. Thompson 22% 10% 7%
Giuliani 21% 26% 29%
Romney 11% 10% 9%
McCain 9% 13% 20%
Huckabee 5% 4% 7%
Brownback 2% 3% 4%
Hunter 1% 1% 1%
Tancredo Less than 1% 1% 1%
T. Thompson Less than 1% 1% Less than 1%
Paul 1% Less than 1% Less than 1%
Gilmore Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1%
Hagel Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1%
Someone else 2% 4% 4%
Not sure 25% 26% 19%
Thompson Winning Hearts in the Heartland
Republican Fred Thompson has built his tiny lead on strength of support in the South, from which he hails, and the Midwest. Rudy shines in the east, and Romney and Rudy are tied for tops in the West. McCain manages to eke out a third–place showing in the South, but is otherwise badly weakened following a bloody legislative loss over immigration reform and a spate of bad news about his campaign fund–raising woes and loss of staff. News reports have his campaign contracting to three key states – Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Thompson’s strongest appeal comes from those who consider themselves to be “very conservative,” as 35% in that group said they favored the former Tennessee Senator–turned–actor. Giuliani finished a distant third in that group, followed by Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. McCain finishes fifth among very conservative voters.
Among mainline conservatives – the largest subgroup of GOP voters – Giuliani wins 21%, compared to 20% for Thompson, 13% for Romney, and 12% for McCain.
However, those who support Giuliani and Thompson are also those Republicans who said they are most likely to change their minds before they vote in their state primary or caucus.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1200