New Hampsire mailer from HQ: Dr. Paul vs Huckabee on taxes

[angrydragon]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/018246.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/01/03/PH2008010303208.jpg

[Bradley in DC]

What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.

[electronicmaji]

not collosal this would be better in SC of course...If we really want to steal votes from Huckabee we need to push religious issues...but its gonna be such a small amount in those states it won't matter

WE need ECONOMIC fliers and we NEED them NOW!

[Haywood1974]

You might want to check that mailer again for some subtle things. This piece goes much deeper than just taxes, although that is the main item on the table. This burns the Huckster on a medicare issue, transportation, illegal immigrants, and puts him in frame with Slick Willy.

Would have been nice if they would have had time to follow this up with the same format, only putting in Romney and McCain. They may be on to something pretty good here with this approach.

[Bradley in DC]

You might want to check that mailer again for some subtle things. This piece goes much deeper than just taxes, although that is the main item on the table. This burns the Huckster on a medicare issue, transportation, illegal immigrants, and puts him in frame with Slick Willy.

I repeat, based only on the public polls I've seen, I see no indication we're in competition with Huckabee on these issues--or any--in NH. We are in competition with McCain in NH on character, etc., with the the ball and chain of the perception that Dr. Paul is a lefty.

[Micahyah]

I think that we are in a battle with Huckabee and Giuliani for 3rd place in NH, all the polls show that.

And since McCain and Romney will be attacking each other negatively, we do have something to gain by souring NH voters on Huckabee.

[electronicmaji]

I think the 4th place finish in Iowa will really hurt Mccain's results in New Hampshire.

[Richandler]

What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.

Design a better flier then! If you know what you are doing so much. Print it and then raise money to send it out! Stop complaining unless you offer an alternative.

[rich34]

Maybe the campaign realizes that with all the endorsements that McCain has recieved from the newspapers that it's in their best interest to secure a top 3 or 4 finish by going after Huckabee? If the polls are to be believed McCain and Romney are quite possibly beyond our reach, but Huckabee is showing about 3 points ahead of us and that poll was before last night. So maybe the campaign does no what they're doing? Also, isn't Romney blasting McCain right now in New Hampshire while no one is attacking Huckabee? Is this the best strategy? I don't know, but it's not bad either!

[austin356]

I have to agree with Bradley on this........ In NH we are NOT competing with Huckabee, we are competing with McCain for Indies. We are actually competing more against Obama right now in NH than Huckabee.

The good thing is though:

If these are already paid for and even printed they should be rerouted to SC. The campaign needs to stop right this moment sending these out to NH. Its a complete waste.

[Ron2Win]

What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.
Yep, the campaign sometimes amuses me.

[austin356]

Maybe the campaign realizes that with all the endorsements that McCain has recieved from the newspapers that it's in their best interest to secure a top 3 or 4 finish by going after Huckabee?



What you are saying is correct, except what you are saying in red.

Finishing ahead of Huckabee is not achieved by going after Huckabee, considering the fact that we are not competing with Huckabee for individual voters.

[OptionsTrader]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/018246.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/01/03/PH2008010303208.jpg

LOL i love it.

I read the news, but thanks you so much for the pic :)

Go after the issues Ron!

[Mortikhi]

What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.
I agree.

Kent Snyder needs to be fired.

[ItsTime]

You are assuming the campaign things we can beat McCain here. Maybe you should look at the other polls that you believe in so much. Those polls are saying we are playing for third place not first.


What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.

[Tenbatsu]

A flier competing with Obama would serve us better.

Paul: No Iraq War Funding, No Patriot Act
Obama: Yes to Iraq War funding, Yes to Patriot Act

[wfd40]

I repeat, based only on the public polls I've seen, I see no indication we're in competition with Huckabee on these issues--or any--in NH. We are in competition with McCain in NH on character, etc., with the the ball and chain of the perception that Dr. Paul is a lefty.

someone get this man a microphone! because what he's saying makes sense.

:cool:

[Bradley in DC]

You are assuming the campaign things we can beat McCain here. Maybe you should look at the other polls that you believe in so much. Those polls are saying we are playing for third place not first.

I am saying we need to compete, smartly, with a plan based on good information under a strategy to win as many votes as possible. I'm not "playing."

[Bradley in DC]

I think that we are in a battle with Huckabee and Giuliani for 3rd place in NH, all the polls show that.

And since McCain and Romney will be attacking each other negatively, we do have something to gain by souring NH voters on Huckabee.

I'm not talking about the silly horserace coverage crap. I'm talking about looking at the crosstabs of the polls. Which demographics can we move our way. What is the premise of the strategy? How are we going to accomplish it?

Club for Growth spent LOTS of money making the same FUTILE attacks on Huckabee. His supporters weren't going to be dissuaded by those attacks.

Look at who is supporting whom and why and then make strategic decisions on resources and message. Why is this even needed to be said????!!!! :mad::eek::mad::eek::mad::eek::mad:

[jd603]

They are mailing to the registered republicans in the state. They've been sending more mailings than any of the other candidates.

Their campaign AFAIK has NOT mailed to Democrats, which in my opinion is a big mistake in NH.




What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.

[ItsTime]

Attacking McCain would not win us votes. McCain voters know where he stands and they are standing with him. Huckabee supporters are fly by night. 29% decided to vote for Huckabee THE DAY OF the caucus. Strategy is playing.


I am saying we need to compete, smartly, with a plan based on good information under a strategy to win as many votes as possible. I'm not "playing."

[liberty_Forever]

I believe that is incorrect. Going after Huckabee is the correct strategy here. We are aiming for 3rd or 4th.

[Bradley in DC]

Maybe the campaign realizes that with all the endorsements that McCain has recieved from the newspapers that it's in their best interest to secure a top 3 or 4 finish by going after Huckabee?

Wrong premise. Which demographics in the crosstabs in the polls are receptive to which messages? We are competing with--and losing badly to--McCain as the independent, outsider, change, maverick, non-special interest, military veteran, "CHARACTER" candidate in NH.

It would be difficult to attack McCain's character and boost ours. Stay positive and build on that message in support of Dr. Paul.

Stop wasting time, money, resources, energy and potential.

[Bradley in DC]

I believe that is incorrect. Going after Huckabee is the correct strategy here. We are aiming for 3rd or 4th.

Why? (not at all an attack, brainstorming is good, collaboration yields better results)

What is the premise of your argument? What are the assumptions? (you are arguing that some selection of the voters are considering their votes between Paul and Huckabee on taxes, etc., and that those voters are the easiest to reach and move our way. I strongly disagree. Persuade me.)

After convincing us of that, why is this ad the best way to achieve that goal? What is the strategy?

[Bradley in DC]

This official campaign staff is incompetent. Period.

They are using your money to say, "Huckabee refused to pledge not to raise taxes if elected president." In fact, Huckabee made the pledge March 2nd, long before Dr. Paul did and long before this ad was designed, printed or mailed. There is no excuse. The charge is false, easily refutable, ill-aimed and, I repeat, a colossal failure and waste of our contributions. Heads need to start rolling.

http://www.atr.org/content/html/2007/march/030207pr-huckabeesignspledge.html

http://www.atr.org/content/pdf/2007/march/030207pr-huckabeesignspledge.pdf
PRESS RELEASE FROM AMERICANS FOR TAX REFORM
Contact: John Kartch ( jkartch@atr.org or 202-785-0266)

[View Printable Adobe Acrobat File]

Mike Huckabee Signs Presidential Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Governor promises to protect the wallets of American taxpayers

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), who is seeking the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination, signed the Presidential Taxpayer Protection Pledge on Friday, March 2nd during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), making it a key feature of his speech.

The Pledge binds signers to “oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates for individuals and/or businesses … and oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates."

ATR has offered the Pledge to all candidates for federal office since 1987. Every Republican nominee for President since 1988 has signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge. To date, President George W. Bush, 43 U.S. Senators, and 196 members of the U.S. House of Representatives have signed the Pledge. Seven Governors and over 1,100 state legislators have signed the Pledge as well.

"We applaud Gov. Huckabee for signing the Presidential Taxpayer Protection Pledge. Gov. Huckabee recognizes that the challenge is to rein in spending and reduce taxes," said Grover Norquist, president of ATR.

“I continue to encourage every Presidential candidate to show their commitment to the U.S. taxpayer by signing the Taxpayer Protection Pledge,” Norquist continued.

Gov. Huckabee joins Gov. Mitt Romney, U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, Rep. Duncan Hunter, Gov. Jim Gilmore, and Rep. Tom Tancredo as other presidential candidates to sign the Presidential Pledge for the 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Copies of the Pledge are available at www.atr.org or by calling (202) 785-0266.

###
Americans for Tax Reform is a non-partisan coalition of taxpayers and taxpayer groups who oppose any and all federal and state tax increases. For more information, or to arrange an interview with Mr. Norquist please contact John Kartch at (202)785-0266 or by email at jkartch@atr.org.

[hvac ak47]

How hard would it be to do a flier like this with all the candidates on it???

A flier with all the important issues with all the candidiates compared???

We need to go ALL OUT in NH and SC and do it NOW!!!!!

EDIT: JUST SAW THAT HUCK DID PLEDGE NOT TO RAISE TAXES!!! WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON I THOUGHT RON WAS SMARTER THAN THIS!!!!! IM STARTING TO THINK THEY DONT WANT TO WIN!!!

[partypooper]

I believe that is incorrect. Going after Huckabee is the correct strategy here. We are aiming for 3rd or 4th.

the place we are aiming at is irrelevant - we don't compete for places but for voters. the place is a consequence of the number of votes, and what bradley is (i believe) saying is that we compete with mccain for the same voters. people who vote for huck are not interested in taxes and we are unlikely to convert them. however, mccain voters might be more interested in dr paul. we only need a few percents to be over huck but that doesn't mean that those few percents have to come from huck.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

In one recent televised debate, I'm almost sure Huckabee said something to the effect of "I can't make that promise because you never know what might happen" when asked about taxes.

[hvac ak47]

In one recent televised debate, I'm almost sure Huckabee said something to the effect of "I can't make that promise because you never know what might happen" when asked about taxes.

Yea I think I remember that also. If so we need to point out his contadiction! I think we need to attack, spend the money and show how Ron is different than the others. We have been waiting on the media to do this!! We have been trying to do this over the internet and IT IS NOT WORKING!!!!Force the media to cover the adds! They dont have to be negative, just the stance on the issues and how Ron differs. McCain voted against Bush tax cuts and voted for ammnesty. Things like this for all the candidates. I think Ron is the only one who voted against the patriot act!!! People dont know this and the media and the internet are not going to reach them.:mad: :mad: :mad:

[Nihilist23]

Heads need to start rolling.

What do you propose we do? We could uniformly tell HQ we are withholding donations until Ron Paul cleans house and gets his campaign organized. I don't know what else would send a direct message and send it fast.

[Arklatex]

I love it!

1) Huckabee was our biggest opponet among the young vote in Iowa.

2) Huck rasied the hell out of taxes in Arkansas, the state he governed. :D

[constituent]

I'm not talking about the silly horserace coverage crap. I'm talking about looking at the crosstabs of the polls. Which demographics can we move our way. What is the premise of the strategy? How are we going to accomplish it?

Club for Growth spent LOTS of money making the same FUTILE attacks on Huckabee. His supporters weren't going to be dissuaded by those attacks.

Look at who is supporting whom and why and then make strategic decisions on resources and message. Why is this even needed to be said????!!!! :mad::eek::mad::eek::mad::eek::mad:

i dont know what charts and graphs you've got access to, but.... uhhhh....



gimme gimme gimme gimme gimme :D

[Henry]

What do you propose we do? We could uniformly tell HQ we are withholding donations until Ron Paul cleans house and gets his campaign organized. I don't know what else would send a direct message and send it fast.

Here is a foot free and fancy-free answer.


HIRE A PR FIRM AND AN AD AGENCY THAT DEMONSTRATED RESULTS!

[constituent]

footloose and fancy-free?

[Lord Xar]

Bradley,

Given the fact that "club for growth" has been running a ton of ads in Iowa - and it had no impact.. can one say that Hucks same support exists in NH? Meaning, the evangelical vote?

I believe that the same message plays differently to one audience over another. Is it possible that NH would be more "open" to the tax issue than say, iowans?

I am seriously asking that.

For instance.. Illegal immigration is huge in Iowa - is it huge in NH? My point being, you can target the same message to different audiences and get a different response.

what are your thoughts?

Also,
I just the ad - nice and effective
it generated free publicity.

[Bradley in DC]

Bradley,

Given the fact that "club for growth" has been running a ton of ads in Iowa - and it had no impact.. can one say that Hucks same support exists in NH? Meaning, the evangelical vote?

I believe that the same message plays differently to one audience over another. Is it possible that NH would be more "open" to the tax issue than say, iowans?

I am seriously asking that.

For instance.. Illegal immigration is huge in Iowa - is it huge in NH? My point being, you can target the same message to different audiences and get a different response.

what are your thoughts?

Dean,

I'm not sure. That is my challenge actually: we need to grow up and deal with realities not wishes and false impressions. Look at the professional scientific polls (they are not all created equal). The "cross tabs" show the breakdowns on the answers: age, gender, party affiliation, income, religion, etc. It will also show reactions by those characteristic subgroups to different polling questions. There is both an art and a science to this approach, yes.

[Frankie Lee]

Why on EARTH is campaign HQ releasing this in New Hampshire? They need to talk about the WAR and compare us to McCain. Good grief are they trying to sabbatoge this thing?

[LibertyEagle]

What is the premise of this strategy?

Who is the target audience? What demographic crosstabs is this ad meant to move? I see no evidence that HQ even understands these concepts.

I don't think we're in competition on taxation with Huckabee voters in NH but McCain voters.

This is, I would argue, a COLOSSAL waste of money, time and resources.

As governor, Huckabee never took a no new taxes pledge. He has, however, signed the Americans for Tax Reform no new taxes pledge as president.

QFT

[itshappening]

Why on EARTH is campaign HQ releasing this in New Hampshire? They need to talk about the WAR and compare us to McCain. Good grief are they trying to sabbatoge this thing?

I think we could have serious infiltrators, or something is right.

[dircha]

This is the right decision.

Huckabee received more than double the support we did from those voters whose top issue was the economy.

Huckabee received more than double he support we did from those voters who said they were dissatisfied with the Bush Administration.

Huckabee also received double the support we did from voters under 30.

We can not win unless we take votes from Huckabee. No one can win unless they take votes from Huckabee.

We can take votes from Huckabee because Congressman Paul is by far the more credible candidate on the economy, for those dissatisfied with the Bush Administration, and for voters under 30. But he needs to spend his money to counter the message being put out in the media by Huckabee.

Congressman Paul runs negative ads in his district in Texas too and they are successful.

Whereas voters supporting McCain support McCain primarily because of his positions on the War in Iraq and on Terrorism, and his support trends much older than ours.

We can not as readily take votes from McCain because we do not appeal to pro-war voters, and we do not appeal to older demographics.

[dircha]

Why on EARTH is campaign HQ releasing this in New Hampshire? They need to talk about the WAR and compare us to McCain. Good grief are they trying to sabbatoge this thing?

And why on EARTH can't they do both?

We can take votes from both Huckabee and McCain.

[walt]

I think we could have serious infiltrators, or something is right.

judging by your join date, and posts to date, I'd say your covering ass for the official HQ - the exact opposite of what HQ needs to be doing.

[paulitics]

Huckabees supporters will not be swayed by this. They are voting for other reasons....emotional ones. Now Romney, McCAin..yes. Huckabee, No! Its a waste of resources. I am now for the grassroots raising the money, and spending it on much better marketing. The media will not report on money raised anymore. We milked it dry.

[paulitics]

Dean,

I'm not sure. That is my challenge actually: we need to grow up and deal with realities not wishes and false impressions. Look at the professional scientific polls (they are not all created equal). The "cross tabs" show the breakdowns on the answers: age, gender, party affiliation, income, religion, etc. It will also show reactions by those characteristic subgroups to different polling questions. There is both an art and a science to this approach, yes.

+1

[Lord Xar]

Well, I agree with Bradley in that one needs to market to an audience that is open to Ron's message, and target those candidates that will give us a good lead for turnovers.

I am coming around to your view to a better degree. Its like Ron targeting Huckster on illegal immigration. NOBODY supports Hucksters for his illegal immigration - so Ron is trying to communicate
with those who don't value the direction of the message.

Now, I would think it would of made more sense to include BOTH huckaberry & McCain as tax lame brains.. and compared to both, Ron is awesome.. two birds, one stone.

I am worried that "IF" the campaign is thinking of the McCain issue - they better do it VERY quick.... I am not sure how much of an impact it can have...

how effective are these mailers?

Are 50K mailers better than a FULL page ad in the major newspapers EVERYDAY till the primaries? STATING ISSUES against the other candidates...

WHY We don't run side by side comparisions in the major newspapers EVERYDAY is beyond me..

Anyways, Bradley - I hear what you are saying... I believe if you are gonna mail out hundreds of thousands of mailers, you are only gonna catch a minimal amount of huck supporters - but perhaps the idea isn't to ONLY get huck supporters but to draw attention to Ron. I don't know.

I sometimes wonder 'who' is actually coming up with these ideas. I wonder WHY someone doesn't post an idea out in the grassroots world anonymously AND then see what the reaction is... I mean.. fish it a little.

[goldstandard]

And why on EARTH can't they do both?

We can take votes from both Huckabee and McCain.

QFT

[ProfNo]

A flier competing with Obama would serve us better.

Paul: No Iraq War Funding, No Patriot Act
Obama: Yes to Iraq War funding, Yes to Patriot Act

This is definitely what we need, and it would probably get the press talking a bit.

A republican competing with the democratic front runner like he has the republican nomination. Plus, it should hopefully help with the independents which is what we really need to pull of a good finish.

I can tell you for a fact that in Iowa, a lot of the young people that I meet were for Obama. We need them, and might be able to get them by communicating the Obama will not change anything.

[Bradley in DC]

Now, I would think it would of made more sense to include BOTH huckaberry & McCain as tax lame brains.. and compared to both, Ron is awesome.. two birds, one stone.

I am worried that "IF" the campaign is thinking of the McCain issue - they better do it VERY quick.... I am not sure how much of an impact it can have...

I think it is too late in the campaign (in NH) to go negative (other sets of issues there). There should be NO ads criticizing other candidates nor any comparison ads anymore (these would have had to have run much earlier in the cycle--like now for Super Tuesday). Unless as an act of total desperation (and in this case just save your money), you end your campaign on an entirely positive note.

Now, I get where you're coming from, Dean, and your points are right. I'm just saying HOW we get those points across is going to be different, at this part of the cycle, than you're thinking, I think. Exactly how one gets those points across is as important as the points. As a mental exercise, redraft what you want to say against someone else and then just explain clearly and simply WHY you're supporting Dr. Paul on that issue.

End your pitch on a high note, nothing negative, no personal attacks or comparisons. Hit the issues that resonate with your targeted demographic to move voters. These issues, in this particular example, I don't think are going to be "policy issues" as much as "character issues" in NH right now.

I can't explain why voters there now are deciding that way, but if we don't look at what is motivating people there now, we lose. Again. And will continue to lose.

[angrydragon]

How do we make our criticisms heard by HQ or Dr. Paul?

[james1844]

I think it is too late in the campaign (in NH) to go negative (other sets of issues there). There should be NO ads criticizing other candidates nor any comparison ads anymore (these would have had to have run much earlier in the cycle--like now for Super Tuesday). Unless as an act of total desperation (and in this case just save your money), you end your campaign on an entirely positive tone.

Now, I get where you're coming from Dean, and your points are right. I'm just saying HOW we get those points across is going to be different, at this part of the cycle, than you're thinking, I think. Exactly how one gets those points across is as important as the points. As a mental exercise, redraft what you want to say against someone else and then just explain clearly and simply WHY you're supporting Dr. Paul on that issue.

End your pitch on a high note, nothing negative, no personal attacks or comparisons. Hit the issues that resonate with your targeted demographic to move voters. These issues, in this particular example, I don't think are going to be "policy issues" as much as "character issues" in NH right now.

I can't explain why voters there now are deciding that way, but if we don't look at what is motivating people there now, we lose. Again. And will continue to lose.

Bradley...okay what do you see as a winning national strategy for the campaign?

[literatim]

They need to attack Obama. :)

[Leslie Webb]

People in New Hampshire don't like taxes. Huckabee has posed as a tax reformer and tax cutter, which he is not. The MSM has not pointed out his abysmal record on taxes. Agree with the poster who wrote that we are more likely to convert Huckabee leaning voters by sending them flyers on taxes than we will convert McCain leaning voters by sending them flyers against the war. The ad is being sent to registered Republicans, not Independents.