Jones says Paul needs 3rd or better in NH

[RevolutionSD]

Just said this. He said 4th would be a huge disappointment, 2nd would be a HUGE victory, and 1st place would be look out and get RP surrounded by body guards.

[Alabama Supporter]

He is right. You people that disagree are delusional.

[Forefall]

4th or worse = even less media coverage = even less chance of winning.

NH needs to step it up and make sure we get in the top 3 or it's curtains.

[itshappening]

Beware Of Sabotage Of Lists And Gotv Efforts

[jacmicwag]

Barring some major development, we will probably be fighting for 4th with Fred in NH. Huck will get a big boost from Iowa and McCain/Romney are already strong there. I don't think 4th in NH is game over by any means as long as someone other than Huck wins. Our best hope is for the neocons to keep picking each other off in the early states and for us to gradually move up into 2nd and 3rd place finishes in places like Nevada and Colorado. If we can move up to around 15% nationally and the other five guys stay in that same range, who knows what will happen. The immediate challenge is for us to keep the faith for the next few weeks and not lose hope or bet the farm on any one contest. Slow and steady progress can still pay dividends as long as we believe.

[BarryDonegan]

no way huck will do well iln NH.

[purepaloma]

Reality could be 5th place again..........I HOPE NOT.........but it is possible.

I'd love to see 3rd - but I'm keeping my expectations LOW. (But still high energy)

[ItsTime]

Come help New Hampshire!! See my sig and this thread! http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=75047

[tsetsefly]

its about percentages a 4th place finish in high teens close to 3rd would be a draw...

[Ibgamer]

Well 3rd would be great but im so confused right now

Last night I was sure 1st was reachable in NH but now im clueless

[Flirple]

Because Obama won in Iowa I don't think we can get first in NH. We will be loosing many independants to Obama now that they are encouraged that he can actually win. My only expectation for NH is that we do better than we did in IA. And I think we will.

[fortilite]

If Ron Paul wins in Wyoming though all that would change...

[MGreen]

I for one don't really care what Jones thinks.

[Apauled]

Ron will win in NH. My partners daughter lives there and she attended a Romney event, there was a reporter there and she was in the paper (Concord/ Manchester) she was told by the reporter that RP event was the most crowded and "mobbed" with people and that other people he spoke with (Ind. & non voters) were more numerous that the polls indicate.

Ron will win just like Alex said!

[MARIO-BC-J]

Just said this. He said 4th would be a huge disappointment, 2nd would be a HUGE victory,
and 1st place would be look out and get RP surrounded by body guards.

I think so too.
I don't understand american politics , but 4th make us sad.
If he lost. where could he get better pleace , I wonder.

All for one ! One for Paul !!

[Thomas Paine]

It will be a victory if Ron Paul places Third in NH. McCain won NH in 2000 and Romney is a former governor from a next door state and has a ton of money. I would also prefer a McCain #1 finish and Romney #2 finish instead of vice versa because Romney has the money to continue the fight in Michigan (where he is a native son) if he doesn't place first in NH. If McCain doesn't win NH, his campaign is going to start to crumble for lack of cash and we need as many neocon/establishment candidates to remain in the race until Super Tuesday to continue dividing the neocon votes between themselves while Ron Paul captures the anti-war, traditional conservative votes in the primaries.

[r0bren0]

I am getting sick of seeing his signs popping up in Michigan. I would like to place these (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?p=839847#post839847) all over the place (Check my post).

[idiom]

If Thompson doesn't win then it is getting really tight for him. That means even if we come 4th we shuffle up into 3rd when Fred drops.

[colin1]

What happened? Everyone assured me that Huckabee was broke, that his evangelical message wouldn't translate in NH and yet he's beating us in the polls in a state that should be a natural fit for RP's message. If we can't win the independents in an open primary, how do we expect to win Republicans in a closed primary like they have in my state? For the record, my fiancee and I have registered Repub to vote and have both maxed out our contributions. I'm not trying to be negative, but I want to see these issues addressed.

[Thomas Paine]

Right now I'm seeing polls where McCain is leading Romney followed by Giuliani or Huckabee (or vice versa) followed closely behind by Ron Paul. Thompson and Hunter bare register at all. The good thing about last night's debate is that if some neocons think Thompson did well at the debate, then they will be casting their votes for him instead of for McCain. I think Giuliani is only going to sink. The big question is whether the Good Doctor can surpass Huckabee and take third place. Huckabee only received a 1% bounce in NH after his win in Iowa.

[kushaze]

From what the MSM pundits are saying, or trying not to say, is that Ron Paul has the second biggest support right now behind John McCain. It still bothers me that John McCain is number one in NH right now. I don't think Romney's second place standing is going to hold.

[cska80]

Obama and Paul won the independent votes for their respective parties, but they're still claiming McCain has the independent vote on lock down. Don't believe the MSM hype.

[AtomiC]

The lowest I can possibly expect Ron Paul to achieve is 3rd place.

My honest prediction based on the number of die-hard supporters in New Hampshire, with signs on every corner and littering the streets, is that Ron Paul will take 1st place.

[CelestialRender]

4th or worse means we have a chance to keep building underground momentum, but won't break out until late January. Which may be a good thing, since it means we'd ride our bubble into Super Tuesday (ala' Ghoul's strategy).

But yeah, I think we'd all love to see him place in the Top 3 in NH.

[Thomas Paine]

The lowest I can possibly expect Ron Paul to achieve is 3rd place.

My honest prediction based on the number of die-hard supporters in New Hampshire, with signs on every corner and littering the streets, is that Ron Paul will take 1st place.

I hope so. Placing third in NH would start to generate momentum for Ron Paul heading into Michigan where Hillary Clinton is the only candidate on the Democrat ballot so a lot of Democrats and Independents could be enticed to vote for Ron Paul to screw over the GOP establishment in Michigan.

[Channing]

I'm sorry, but anything less than 1st or 2nd place is going to be a disappointment. Ron Paul has all the advantages in this state and it has been the focus of our efforts. We cannot blame the media, because Ron Paul has been in the media in the last few weeks. Indeed, straw polls and donor numbers show a massive support for Ron Paul. Whether this turns into votes is another question, but if it doesn't then the system is deeply flawed, and I mean really, *deeply* flawed.

[rich34]

Zogby's new poll has us at 6% down from two days at 7%. He was dead on with Iowa, I sure hope the undecideds and more indy's break for Paul. I mean surely we can do better in New Hampshire than Iowa right??

[Joe3113]

The lowest I can possibly expect Ron Paul to achieve is 3rd place.

My honest prediction based on the number of die-hard supporters in New Hampshire, with signs on every corner and littering the streets, is that Ron Paul will take 1st place.

This is exactly why vote fraud is on the cards

Half the state is paper ballots and half is electronic machines

THE ELECTRONIC HALF SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PAPER HALF.

[i2ambler]

If Paul loses to Huckabee in New Hampshire - we have some serious thinking to do.

[Thomas Paine]

Here is some more polling information that is current through yesterday. It appears that Giuliani is declining fast and Ron Paul will probably place ahead of Giuliani by Tuesday. My concern is that it appears that over the last couple days that Ron Paul has started to flatline while Huckabee is enjoying his 1-2% bounce from Iowa thereby placing Ron Paul about 3% behind Huckabee for third place. We must pass Huckabee by Tuesday for third place.

http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php

[i2ambler]

on another note.. this is the crap we are dealing with:

Interviewed after a McCain house party, Wayne Stickney, a 56-year-old store manager, said, “I love Ron Paul. He is very factual. He is everything I believe in. But he's not a front-runner. He isn't going to win the presidency.”

For that reason, Stickney said he is deciding between McCain and Romney.

:(

[tfelice]

Just said this. He said 4th would be a huge disappointment, 2nd would be a HUGE victory, and 1st place would be look out and get RP surrounded by body guards.

Jones is right on this, but I would add that a third place finish has to be a very strong third, i.e. within 1 or 2 percentage points of 2nd, and 10 from 1st.

[Thomas Paine]

on another note.. this is the crap we are dealing with:

Interviewed after a McCain house party, Wayne Stickney, a 56-year-old store manager, said, “I love Ron Paul. He is very factual. He is everything I believe in. But he's not a front-runner. He isn't going to win the presidency.”

For that reason, Stickney said he is deciding between McCain and Romney.

:(

That has to be the dumbest reason to cast a vote for any candidate.

[tfelice]

That has to be the dumbest reason to cast a vote for any candidate.

While that may be true, that is the method the overhwelming majority of primary voters use. The electorate sees voting for a candiate that doesn't have a snowball's chance (for example Hunter or Keyes) as an exercise in futility. They want their vote to count for something so that they feel they are participating in the process. This is all the more reason candidates need to do very well in the early primaries. Those contests, wile not adding up to many delegates, are a test of a candidate's viability.

[KingTheoden]

on another note.. this is the crap we are dealing with:

Interviewed after a McCain house party, Wayne Stickney, a 56-year-old store manager, said, “I love Ron Paul. He is very factual. He is everything I believe in. But he's not a front-runner. He isn't going to win the presidency.”

For that reason, Stickney said he is deciding between McCain and Romney.

:(

I wouldn't pay much attention to that. To say Ron Paul is 'everything I believe in' and then consider voting for McCain, pro-taxes and pro-war, I am forced to be suspicious. Paul and McCain are not close to each other in anything. I smell a plant. Still, on the other hand, people are given to multi-belief systems; whether its the water, vaccines, or something else, people make really bizarre and illogical choices today.

In the end this is like saying 'Well, I am Jewish but there aren't many of us, so I have to decide between Buddhism or Hinduism.' A media plant or not, such is pretty absurd statement.

[liberty_Forever]

3rd is realistic. WATCH OUT FOR VOTE FRAUD

[Rebel Resource]

I'll be disappointed with 3rd in NH, not vastly, but NH should be one of our best states in the whole country. And ahead of the other primaries, we need the front-runner status. 3rd can be viewed as a freak result, while 2nd is indisputably top-tier.

[thompsonisland]

The weather is supposed to be warm in NH this week. I know that's just a little, but I think it will help turnout. Unfortunately, we live in Maine now...

I have heard people say that they are voting for Obama because he "can win." Well, so he can. But Obama and RP are so far apart on the issues, that I hardly see how anyone with that attitude could have been a real supporter of Paul from the beginning.

The limousine liberals in Southern NH are big on Obama; have been from the start.

ETA: When people tell me they want to vote for a candidate who "can win," sometimes (depending on the audience), I ask why they don't just wait until after the election to vote. If put the right way, it sometimes causes the bulb to go on.

[Johncjackson]

I was gonna ask who the hell Jones was, but then I realized who. And realized his opinion is irrelevant.

[Johncjackson]

As far as finishing 3rd goes. Here is why it would be a victory of sorts.

The rumor is if Romney finishes 2nd again, he is done. Especially in what is pretty much his home area.

NH is also supposed to be McCain's biggest shot. He won NH in 2000 and it helped him stay competitive longer. He is the "independents" choice, supposedly. If McCain loses NH, he might be done.

You could have a scenario of either McCain or Romney dropping out or essentially being finished and just limping along.

If McCain wins and Fred finishes 4th or lower, Fred might drop out and endorse McCain.

Iowa might be Huckabee's peak. I hope.

At this point you would essentially have a race down to McCain, Giuliani, and Paul. Maybe Huck is still around going for the Evangelicals. None of these candidates are loved everywhere, and it's clear to me who the traditional "conservative" is. Paul has the money to keep going and has less idiots to try to talk over.

At least thats the way I see it and why Paul is the "'wildcard." He can keep going as long as we want him to. He has a consistent message and support base. and Money $$.

[thoughtbombing]

I for one don't really care what Jones thinks.

Think what you want... get on youtube and search for the video of him Predicting 9/11, with planes, on the world trade center, in new york, by "osama"

again.. think what you want, but that doesn't change what happened and that he predicted it. LOOK AT THE DAMN DATE. Back in August of 2001, he's saying it's going to happen. People said he was crazy... BOOM, HEADSHOT.

Now what?

Ignore him again... yea, he's got a DVD to sell you--but if the shit in them isn't true and verifiable, then they don't sell. And he tells you to copy and hand them out for free... so it must not be the money.

[nate895]

We have talked a lot about the 20000 Iowa supporters who disappeared from the campaign's databases, and I was wondering how many we have in NH.

[Catatonic]

That has to be the dumbest reason to cast a vote for any candidate.

The media likes to find the dumbest people possible to say things like this. They want to make us all stupid through osmosis.

[Leroy_Jenkems]

no way huck will do well iln NH.

Correct.

[Catatonic]

We have talked a lot about the 20000 Iowa supporters who disappeared from the campaign's databases, and I was wondering how many we have in NH.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qo-rNrigqY

I think NH uses something similar?

[Paul4Prez]

I don't even know who Jones is, so what he thinks is irrelevant to me.

3rd or better would be great, but any finish of 10% or higher will give Ron Paul enough credibility to remain a serious contender.

[evadmurd]

As long as we beat Huckabee

[GoneResistance]

If Ron Paul finishes 4th or 5th in the MOST Libertarian state, forget it. He must prove he can break through the 10% barrier. Any good extreme candidate can end up at 10%. A true contender has to be better than that.

[Rebel Resource]

Think what you want... get on youtube and search for the video of him Predicting 9/11, with planes, on the world trade center, in new york, by "osama"

again.. think what you want, but that doesn't change what happened and that he predicted it. LOOK AT THE DAMN DATE. Back in August of 2001, he's saying it's going to happen. People said he was crazy... BOOM, HEADSHOT.

Now what?

Ignore him again... yea, he's got a DVD to sell you--but if the shit in them isn't true and verifiable, then they don't sell. And he tells you to copy and hand them out for free... so it must not be the money.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGtOFudmHG8

[thisisgiparti]

Beware Of Sabotage Of Lists And Gotv Efforts

bingo. look at IA.

[thisisgiparti]

As long as we beat Huckabee

I fart huckabees.