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Bradley in DC
01-04-2008, 08:10 AM
Remember I have posted (usually in the general politics section) articles on the comparative reputations of different pollsters, methodologies, etc.? Well, I had said the Des Moines Register poll had the best reputation and record:

http://cafehayek.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/01/03/rcp.jpg

ecliptic
01-04-2008, 08:13 AM
So is Zogby the most accurate pollster?

Here's another Zogby poll, by the way:

http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/1531/942007zogbypoller8.png

stevedasbach
01-04-2008, 08:20 AM
No, the Register was more accurate overall. The only thing they missed was Thompson's rise and Guiliani's final decline. If you looked at the Register's day-by-day results, they even showed our rising numbers.

Also interesting -- the average of the other polls is right around 7% -- which is what we got among Republican voters. We ended up with 10% because of our strong showing among independents (best of any Republican candidate). The Register did a better job of predicting our results because they correctly included more independents (same for the democrats).

Bradley in DC
01-04-2008, 08:26 AM
So is Zogby the most accurate pollster?

um, no, Zogby has one of the worst reputations.