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View Full Version : Voter:Doner ratio 10:1, Implication




AlexMerced
01-04-2008, 07:08 AM
if we have a 10:1 donor ratio across the board, where does that put us in NH?

goRPaul
01-04-2008, 07:14 AM
Good question. I wish I had the data to try to answer. I'd also like to see the same stat for other campaigns.

Killaspike
01-04-2008, 08:01 AM
bump

I want to know too

Mental Dribble
01-04-2008, 08:05 AM
where did you get 10:1?

Killaspike
01-04-2008, 08:06 AM
~1000 people donated from Iowa

~10000 people voted in Iowa

Malum Prohibitum
01-04-2008, 08:11 AM
if that donor to voter ratio holds true across other states, this doesnt bid well for the candidacy. Its great that RP supporters are more motivated than other candidates supporters, but in the end, we each only get one vote.

Its sad to say that without some larger mass media exposure we are facing a serious uphill climb. The supporter base has been growing at a rate of about 25% a month. With super tuesday looming a month out, Im not sure we have enough time.

No matter how this ends, we NEED to find a way to expand our mass media engines by abouot a thousandfold.

AlexMerced
01-04-2008, 10:08 AM
trust me, california is our saving grace, and if we can ramp things up in NY too

AlexMerced
01-04-2008, 10:09 AM
also don't forget mccain,huckabee, and thompson are near broke they can't stay in this much longer if donations don't pick up so we just need them to keep giuliani and romney down

jake
01-04-2008, 10:09 AM
Iowa had 673 donors
NH has had 686 donors

(~ half the population) which means Paul's support should be roughly double: IE ~20,000 votes.

RonPaulFTFW
01-04-2008, 10:10 AM
isn't NY all about ghouliani?

bulloncoins
01-04-2008, 10:12 AM
~1000 people donated from Iowa

~10000 people voted in Iowa


if that donor to voter ratio holds true across other states, this doesnt bid well for the candidacy. Its great that RP supporters are more motivated than other candidates supporters, but in the end, we each only get one vote.

Its sad to say that without some larger mass media exposure we are facing a serious uphill climb. The supporter base has been growing at a rate of about 25% a month. With super tuesday looming a month out, Im not sure we have enough time.

No matter how this ends, we NEED to find a way to expand our mass media engines by abouot a thousandfold.

Doesn't that say we got 10 voters for every donor in the state? New Hampshire is a very strong donor state......How can that be bad?

homah
01-04-2008, 10:13 AM
Iowa had 673 donors
NH has had 686 donors

(~ half the population) which means Paul's support should be roughly double: IE ~20,000 votes.

Why would he get twice as many votes from the same number of donors? His percentage might double, perhaps, assuming the percentage of people who turnout is about the same as in Iowa, but the raw number of voters should be about the same.

Paul10
01-04-2008, 10:13 AM
....

Rintrah54
01-04-2008, 10:17 AM
I might be reading this wrong.......or my math could be off but this is my take.


According to the donor map the donor per million ratio in New Hampshire is roughly twice that of Iowa. Assuming the votes per donor ratio stays the same, then wouldnt the voting outcome be roughly twice what it was in Iowa?

Paulio
01-04-2008, 10:18 AM
I don't know about total donor numbers.

But thanks to ronpaulgraphs.com I know about per capita donor number. In NH this number is 521.7, in IA it's 225.7. So 2.3 times per capita more supporters in NH than in IA. 2.3 x 10% = 23% support.

It's not much of a analysis but at least there are some real numbers to work with.

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

Bern
01-04-2008, 10:25 AM
All this speculation is not taking into account that Iowa's caucus and NH's primary are two different beasts. Iowa's system is more exclusive - requiring people to be at a specific place at a specific time. NH's all day system allows more people to participate. Apples and oranges.

Paulio
01-04-2008, 10:30 AM
I would predict that in New Hampshire Ron Paul should get at least 3rd position with 20% votes or better. Given the numbers out there (polls, donor ratio, Iowa result) that's what I got after analysing US politics for about 15 minutes. If you fall for it, then it's your own fault ;-)

I'm not from US, never been to NH or IA.

Goldwater Conservative
01-04-2008, 10:32 AM
The voter:donor figures we've been seeing for the Democrats in 2004 (Kucinich with the lowest at 32) are for donations over $200, which means the ratio for Paul will be higher than 10:1.

Abyss
01-04-2008, 10:44 AM
NYC is all about Rudy...

AlexMerced
01-04-2008, 10:52 AM
we can win NYC we beat him in the straw poll, and their losing faith since he's looking like a loser in the medias eyes. We made an indifferent show, so expectations have been lowered meaning a good showing NH will have even more impact.

thoughtbombing
01-04-2008, 10:54 AM
~1000 people donated from Iowa

~10000 people voted in Iowa

wrong, probably as many as double that voted for Ron Paul, and we got screwed. I refuse to believe those numbers. I'm sorry, I can't believe it. I refuse. We must continue to work hard, but it is clear to me--even in the absence of absolute proof that we were defrauded last night.

curtisag
01-04-2008, 11:04 AM
The voter donor ratio only works for Iowa. You would need to study NH by itself to devise a new ratio, taking into account that many more people vote in NH's primary compared to Iowa's caucus.

Paul10
01-04-2008, 11:06 AM
....

AlexMerced
01-04-2008, 11:16 AM
Ron Pauls pressence in in NH is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy stronger than IA, again we weren't trying too much IA

Ron Paul has been in NH more than any other state
Vijay and the rest of the Live Free or Die troop is up their
It's a "libertarian" leaning state

NH is different ball game

What was Pat Buchanans number before he won?

curtisag
01-04-2008, 05:28 PM
Ron Pauls pressence in in NH is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy stronger than IA, again we weren't trying too much IA

Ron Paul has been in NH more than any other state
Vijay and the rest of the Live Free or Die troop is up their
It's a "libertarian" leaning state

NH is different ball game

What was Pat Buchanans number before he won?

He polled at 14% and won with 28%.

crink
01-04-2008, 05:31 PM
isn't NY all about ghouliani?

No New York hates him... well the city does at least.

Andrew-Austin
01-04-2008, 06:27 PM
NYC is all about Rudy...

Does New York not understand why the fire fighters hate him?

RonPaulCult
01-04-2008, 06:32 PM
McCain got 5% in Iowa in 2000 and 49% in NH

So since we got 10% in Iowa we should expect 98% in NH

OddballAZ
01-04-2008, 06:36 PM
http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html

The donor ratio is much higher in NH than IA for Ron Paul. The demographics of the state, and the way they vote is also a lot different. Paul has spent much more time focusing on NH.

American's for the most part have very short attention spans. If we gotta lose one vote and win another, we want to lose the vote that is the furthest away from Super Tuesday and win the vote just before Super Tuesday. That would be NH.

Aldanga
01-04-2008, 06:38 PM
McCain got 5% in Iowa in 2000 and 49% in NH

So since we got 10% in Iowa we should expect 98% in NH

LOL.

I'm not that optimistic.

We forgot about the 'evangelical christians' in Iowa. We neglected to consider their caucussing en masse. Honestly, we fucked up our analysis.

Still, I'm definitely optimistic. 10% in Iowa? Are you kidding me? In that neoconservative hotbed? That's fricking awesome! I'm ready for the primaries. My stomach was actually in knots a minute ago thinking about the rest of the votes.

This is exciting. Enjoy the ride and make the most of it!

RickLovesRon
01-04-2008, 06:44 PM
trust me, california is our saving grace, and if we can ramp things up in NY too

im pretty sure ny will go to the mayor.. and its a winner take all state.. so second place doesn't get any delegates..... :(

crink
01-04-2008, 06:51 PM
Ya right now I'm the only Paul supporter that I've ever met, and I can't even vote. But i'm going to try to get a local newspaper to write about him.