Mike S.
01-04-2008, 05:30 AM
The Iowa results were very close to that predicted by Zogby. Overall, however, the RCP polling ave at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
predicted Ron Paul to get 7.3% when in fact he got 10%. So what does this tell us?
1. Can we say the polls are crooked? Answer: Some polls run by a news agency as a sideline may have a bias, but major polling agencies like Zogby NEVER cook the numbers. Why not? The polling results, compared to actual results are their business calling card. Bad predictions result in lost business. And the big firms know what they are doing.
2. The Iowa results were unique in that voters could be courted by opponents to switch. It is obvious that many of Gulianni's voters jumped ship where as very few of Ron Paul's did. See http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21229206 This indicates an extreme dedication by RP supporters. We can expect this to translate into higher voter turnout in New Hampshire. I would predict that we could add at least 3% to the current predictions for RP in New Hampshire, possibly getting him 3rd place. Maybe not what you are hoping for but still will be fun to see how the MSM tries to explain how this "kook" managed to secure 3rd place.
Clearly, there is no republican frontrunner in this election. See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html If Ron Paul can stay in the top 3 up until Super Tuesday and somehow get his message to appeal to supporters of other candidates, he still has a shot.
predicted Ron Paul to get 7.3% when in fact he got 10%. So what does this tell us?
1. Can we say the polls are crooked? Answer: Some polls run by a news agency as a sideline may have a bias, but major polling agencies like Zogby NEVER cook the numbers. Why not? The polling results, compared to actual results are their business calling card. Bad predictions result in lost business. And the big firms know what they are doing.
2. The Iowa results were unique in that voters could be courted by opponents to switch. It is obvious that many of Gulianni's voters jumped ship where as very few of Ron Paul's did. See http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21229206 This indicates an extreme dedication by RP supporters. We can expect this to translate into higher voter turnout in New Hampshire. I would predict that we could add at least 3% to the current predictions for RP in New Hampshire, possibly getting him 3rd place. Maybe not what you are hoping for but still will be fun to see how the MSM tries to explain how this "kook" managed to secure 3rd place.
Clearly, there is no republican frontrunner in this election. See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html If Ron Paul can stay in the top 3 up until Super Tuesday and somehow get his message to appeal to supporters of other candidates, he still has a shot.