Virtual Isolation
01-04-2008, 04:06 AM
I decided to jump here into the fray after being a watcher on the forums for a long time after the first primary results tonight, similar to a few other threads I have seen passing through. I am an ex-neocon who realized he was drinking the Kool-Aid back in March, and have been supporting Paul since. When Giuliani said the infamous line in the first debate, I thought Paul was a nut. Then I realized he was right.
I too was disappointed with the 10% tonight, because I too expected more. BUT, this is far from the end. If you look at the way the candidates are currently lined up, we may benefit greatly. POSITIVE THINKING PEOPLE.
The first time we hit double digits was tonight. In an election, not a poll... and in extremely hostile territory. A Bush approval rating of 65%+? Even among Republicans that's one hell of a stretch. This bodes very well, as we are now, suddenly, very competitive against the "favorites".
The Huckster win is a big gift for a number of reasons. This has far-reaching consequences on the whole field and it will trickle down very very quickly:
1) Romney must win NH to remain a viable candidate. The Iowa loss was huge for him, so he now must blow everything he has in NH for the next week. His biggest opposition is McCain, so prepare for an all-out assault on McCain-Feingold and amnesty. This should lead to a ripple effect in McCain's poll numbers throughout the nation that has the potential to deflate his recent rebound.
Romney's viability took a huge hit in Iowa so expect a lot of the New Hampshire voters to take a second look, which will cause his poll numbers to drop. At the same time Romney will be hitting them with the fact that McCain is no longer a "maverick" but more of a sellout.
2) What does this do? It opens the door for us to sneak in with the independent minded voters of the state. Remember, this is where Dr. Paul has spent most of his time and effort. With Romney & McCain eating each other, and none of the other candidates striking a chord, we may receive a gift.
Wyoming and Nevada are also high on the radar thanks to the small state caucuses, and less of a strong gathering of people susceptible to Huckabee.
3) The Republican base is fragmenting even more than before thanks to the Huckabee win. A lot of big time media figures (Hannity, Limbaugh, Savage) are really chewing badly on him. Usually this would have the effect of changing the minds of the Huckabee voters, but from reading comments on Politico - the Huckabites are actually arguing and fighting against Limbaugh & Co. The more splintered the base becomes, the more likely they will look to other options, and the more likely the main candidate's numbers will stagnate amongst one another.
We have a real good setup, all we need to do is continue to focus and move forward with the message. Sure, we ended up in 5th place, but Iowa was a weak point - Paul's message is very strong, particularly in the west. Sit back and ask yourself if we're in a worse position than anyone else:
Romney: Must win NH after a crushing Iowa defeat after spending tons of money. Low national polling rates compared to first two states (12-15%). On top of this, Paul just got real electoral support in one of his weakest states that is close to Romney's national poll numbers.
Huckabee: Evangelical support concentrated in certain areas, no broad appeal. Currently being tarred and feathered by Conservative media personalities, including the "holy grail" of Rush Limbaugh. Lackluster funding for other primary states. An Iowa win, yes, but only 2 of the last 15 party nominees (or something like that) actually won Iowa.
Giuliani: Embarassed in Iowa, dropping in national polls & losing momentum. Banking on one state (Florida) to take him to Feb 5th, where he can pick up moderate supporters in the coastal states.
Thompson: Localized support in the South, weak in the rest of the country, low polling similar to Romney. Uninspiring, and has already hinted dropping out. Like the others, banking on one state (SC) for a win to continue on.
McCain: Hoping to rebound with a strong NH showing, slightly rising in poll numbers. No longer has the anti-establishment maverick feel, and will not receive votes due to the amnesty issue. Extremely disliked by the same Republican media as Huckabee. No funding to put up a decent fight after New Hampshire.
And finally,
Dr. Paul: First double-digit poll/electoral performance in a low-polling state for libertarian thinking. At least 15+ million in banked funding & the best supporter retention strength of any candidate. Three potentially strong states on the horizon (NH, NV, WY), not relying on a first place finish in any to remain viable, active, and growing.
This is a total free-for-all and is exactly where we want to be. Don't let yourselves be down for one or two days. Keep the hope!
I too was disappointed with the 10% tonight, because I too expected more. BUT, this is far from the end. If you look at the way the candidates are currently lined up, we may benefit greatly. POSITIVE THINKING PEOPLE.
The first time we hit double digits was tonight. In an election, not a poll... and in extremely hostile territory. A Bush approval rating of 65%+? Even among Republicans that's one hell of a stretch. This bodes very well, as we are now, suddenly, very competitive against the "favorites".
The Huckster win is a big gift for a number of reasons. This has far-reaching consequences on the whole field and it will trickle down very very quickly:
1) Romney must win NH to remain a viable candidate. The Iowa loss was huge for him, so he now must blow everything he has in NH for the next week. His biggest opposition is McCain, so prepare for an all-out assault on McCain-Feingold and amnesty. This should lead to a ripple effect in McCain's poll numbers throughout the nation that has the potential to deflate his recent rebound.
Romney's viability took a huge hit in Iowa so expect a lot of the New Hampshire voters to take a second look, which will cause his poll numbers to drop. At the same time Romney will be hitting them with the fact that McCain is no longer a "maverick" but more of a sellout.
2) What does this do? It opens the door for us to sneak in with the independent minded voters of the state. Remember, this is where Dr. Paul has spent most of his time and effort. With Romney & McCain eating each other, and none of the other candidates striking a chord, we may receive a gift.
Wyoming and Nevada are also high on the radar thanks to the small state caucuses, and less of a strong gathering of people susceptible to Huckabee.
3) The Republican base is fragmenting even more than before thanks to the Huckabee win. A lot of big time media figures (Hannity, Limbaugh, Savage) are really chewing badly on him. Usually this would have the effect of changing the minds of the Huckabee voters, but from reading comments on Politico - the Huckabites are actually arguing and fighting against Limbaugh & Co. The more splintered the base becomes, the more likely they will look to other options, and the more likely the main candidate's numbers will stagnate amongst one another.
We have a real good setup, all we need to do is continue to focus and move forward with the message. Sure, we ended up in 5th place, but Iowa was a weak point - Paul's message is very strong, particularly in the west. Sit back and ask yourself if we're in a worse position than anyone else:
Romney: Must win NH after a crushing Iowa defeat after spending tons of money. Low national polling rates compared to first two states (12-15%). On top of this, Paul just got real electoral support in one of his weakest states that is close to Romney's national poll numbers.
Huckabee: Evangelical support concentrated in certain areas, no broad appeal. Currently being tarred and feathered by Conservative media personalities, including the "holy grail" of Rush Limbaugh. Lackluster funding for other primary states. An Iowa win, yes, but only 2 of the last 15 party nominees (or something like that) actually won Iowa.
Giuliani: Embarassed in Iowa, dropping in national polls & losing momentum. Banking on one state (Florida) to take him to Feb 5th, where he can pick up moderate supporters in the coastal states.
Thompson: Localized support in the South, weak in the rest of the country, low polling similar to Romney. Uninspiring, and has already hinted dropping out. Like the others, banking on one state (SC) for a win to continue on.
McCain: Hoping to rebound with a strong NH showing, slightly rising in poll numbers. No longer has the anti-establishment maverick feel, and will not receive votes due to the amnesty issue. Extremely disliked by the same Republican media as Huckabee. No funding to put up a decent fight after New Hampshire.
And finally,
Dr. Paul: First double-digit poll/electoral performance in a low-polling state for libertarian thinking. At least 15+ million in banked funding & the best supporter retention strength of any candidate. Three potentially strong states on the horizon (NH, NV, WY), not relying on a first place finish in any to remain viable, active, and growing.
This is a total free-for-all and is exactly where we want to be. Don't let yourselves be down for one or two days. Keep the hope!