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View Full Version : Iowa's Big Picture - Another Lurker/First Poster




Virtual Isolation
01-04-2008, 04:06 AM
I decided to jump here into the fray after being a watcher on the forums for a long time after the first primary results tonight, similar to a few other threads I have seen passing through. I am an ex-neocon who realized he was drinking the Kool-Aid back in March, and have been supporting Paul since. When Giuliani said the infamous line in the first debate, I thought Paul was a nut. Then I realized he was right.

I too was disappointed with the 10% tonight, because I too expected more. BUT, this is far from the end. If you look at the way the candidates are currently lined up, we may benefit greatly. POSITIVE THINKING PEOPLE.

The first time we hit double digits was tonight. In an election, not a poll... and in extremely hostile territory. A Bush approval rating of 65%+? Even among Republicans that's one hell of a stretch. This bodes very well, as we are now, suddenly, very competitive against the "favorites".

The Huckster win is a big gift for a number of reasons. This has far-reaching consequences on the whole field and it will trickle down very very quickly:

1) Romney must win NH to remain a viable candidate. The Iowa loss was huge for him, so he now must blow everything he has in NH for the next week. His biggest opposition is McCain, so prepare for an all-out assault on McCain-Feingold and amnesty. This should lead to a ripple effect in McCain's poll numbers throughout the nation that has the potential to deflate his recent rebound.

Romney's viability took a huge hit in Iowa so expect a lot of the New Hampshire voters to take a second look, which will cause his poll numbers to drop. At the same time Romney will be hitting them with the fact that McCain is no longer a "maverick" but more of a sellout.

2) What does this do? It opens the door for us to sneak in with the independent minded voters of the state. Remember, this is where Dr. Paul has spent most of his time and effort. With Romney & McCain eating each other, and none of the other candidates striking a chord, we may receive a gift.

Wyoming and Nevada are also high on the radar thanks to the small state caucuses, and less of a strong gathering of people susceptible to Huckabee.

3) The Republican base is fragmenting even more than before thanks to the Huckabee win. A lot of big time media figures (Hannity, Limbaugh, Savage) are really chewing badly on him. Usually this would have the effect of changing the minds of the Huckabee voters, but from reading comments on Politico - the Huckabites are actually arguing and fighting against Limbaugh & Co. The more splintered the base becomes, the more likely they will look to other options, and the more likely the main candidate's numbers will stagnate amongst one another.

We have a real good setup, all we need to do is continue to focus and move forward with the message. Sure, we ended up in 5th place, but Iowa was a weak point - Paul's message is very strong, particularly in the west. Sit back and ask yourself if we're in a worse position than anyone else:

Romney: Must win NH after a crushing Iowa defeat after spending tons of money. Low national polling rates compared to first two states (12-15%). On top of this, Paul just got real electoral support in one of his weakest states that is close to Romney's national poll numbers.

Huckabee: Evangelical support concentrated in certain areas, no broad appeal. Currently being tarred and feathered by Conservative media personalities, including the "holy grail" of Rush Limbaugh. Lackluster funding for other primary states. An Iowa win, yes, but only 2 of the last 15 party nominees (or something like that) actually won Iowa.

Giuliani: Embarassed in Iowa, dropping in national polls & losing momentum. Banking on one state (Florida) to take him to Feb 5th, where he can pick up moderate supporters in the coastal states.

Thompson: Localized support in the South, weak in the rest of the country, low polling similar to Romney. Uninspiring, and has already hinted dropping out. Like the others, banking on one state (SC) for a win to continue on.

McCain: Hoping to rebound with a strong NH showing, slightly rising in poll numbers. No longer has the anti-establishment maverick feel, and will not receive votes due to the amnesty issue. Extremely disliked by the same Republican media as Huckabee. No funding to put up a decent fight after New Hampshire.

And finally,

Dr. Paul: First double-digit poll/electoral performance in a low-polling state for libertarian thinking. At least 15+ million in banked funding & the best supporter retention strength of any candidate. Three potentially strong states on the horizon (NH, NV, WY), not relying on a first place finish in any to remain viable, active, and growing.

This is a total free-for-all and is exactly where we want to be. Don't let yourselves be down for one or two days. Keep the hope!

OptionsTrader
01-04-2008, 04:08 AM
Loving the smart first time posters tonight!

Welcome to the forums, glad you've been with us since March too.

Be sure to sign up at https://www.ronpaul2008.com/join/ and get your friends to do the same.

AtomiC
01-04-2008, 04:10 AM
+1

Ron Paul is definitely still in the running, the next states coming up will show his true support.

yongrel
01-04-2008, 04:13 AM
Is it just me, or are the newbies posting more intelligent and well-reasoned thoughts than the old-timers?

Virtual Isolation
01-04-2008, 04:16 AM
Is it just me, or are the newbies posting more intelligent and well-reasoned thoughts than the old-timers?

It's a symptom of the internet. People that frequent boards but don't post usually just sit back and try to take it all in without being extremely reactionary. At least I can speak for myself, I don't know about others.

Double-edged sword, the internet is.

drexhex
01-04-2008, 04:16 AM
Wow, that was a great first post! Glad to have you on board!

voytechs
01-04-2008, 04:17 AM
Welcome. Nice perspective on politics. I'm thinking that Dr. Paul had a real significant effect on you, wow! He did on me too.

0zzy
01-04-2008, 04:17 AM
Is it just me, or are the newbies posting more intelligent and well-reasoned thoughts than the old-timers?

Ya, I like them! :D

szczebrzeszyn
01-04-2008, 04:21 AM
Is it just me, or are the newbies posting more intelligent and well-reasoned thoughts than the old-timers?
LOL, my thoughts exactly. So many great, reasonable and intelligent posts today and most of them from new members.

EDIT: Welcome Virtual Isolation! Good to have you here.

Micahyah
01-04-2008, 04:25 AM
excellent analysis, I agree 100%

I would also add, we who are active on the internet are basically inundated by Ron Paul, but he is still fighting for name recognition and to have people hear his message.

The national Rasmussan numbers have the other 5 candidates between 18-13% and Paul at 7%. All we need to do is focus on doubling our support through canvassing and grassroots efforts, and we'll be right at the top of the pack in a few weeks.

And we CAN get it done.

Troyhand
01-04-2008, 04:53 AM
Gold star for a wonderful entrance and a great anaylsis. Another big success from Iowa is that it brought so many thoughful, politically-savvy voices into the forum tonight for the first time.
We need your perspective. Thank you.
I'm wondering. It seems that the campaign is being cautiously frugal with spending, especially in South Carolina. Do you think this is good strategy? Should South Carolina be thought of as a state that can only be impacted through grassroots efforts and not constant advertising? Is it even possible for us to do very well there? Is this why the campaign seems to be holding its cards? What's your opinion?

Mark
01-04-2008, 05:13 AM
Well thought out first post! - Anytime inspiration arrives, we could use more of the same!

Virtual Isolation
01-04-2008, 05:26 AM
I'm not as familiar with South Carolina as the first two primaries (since they're played off so much) and Nevada (being right next to it).

As far as I can tell Paul does have a good shot thanks to Iowa and the impending NH voting. The parity in SC is really striking at the last average on RCP (which was over two weeks ago):
Huck: 25, Romney: 19, Thompson: 14, McCain: 13, Giuliani: 12, Paul: 6

This is very similar to the Iowa outcome, with Giuliani and Paul swapped. Given Romney is going to go all out on McCain, and SC might be Thompson's only shot for a win (if he's still in the race then he'll go after Huckabee to try to get some of those religious votes). Giuliani will continue dropping as he has since November, and Romney will weaken.

I don't think Huckabee will be able to support his success very strongly in the next two weeks, and with the bees swarming about him, I'd expect a 5-10% dropoff that will mostly go to Fred. Giuliani's support will drop to McCain. If Romney is poor in NH, expect more flux (a key issue is electability, which Iowa has just killed off).

Right before the primary it might look more like:
Fred 20-25, Huck 15-20, McCain 12-15, Romney 10-12, Paul 10-15, Rudy 8-10

I would quote Paul similarly to Iowa's count as a current base for SC. If he can go up to 15% by election day I'd quote him as 50% to take 2nd. If he stagnates, expect for another almost three way tie for third.

Troyhand
01-04-2008, 05:43 AM
Right before the primary it might look more like:
Fred 20-25, Huck 15-20, McCain 12-15, Romney 10-12, Paul 10-15, Rudy 8-10

I would quote Paul similarly to Iowa's count as a current base for SC. If he can go up to 15% by election day I'd quote him as 50% to take 2nd. If he stagnates, expect for another almost three way tie for third.

Thanks. That seems like a pretty good prediction. Momentums for eveyone's definitely going to change after NH. If Paul does well in Nevada (and I think he will), a healthy 3rd or 4rd in SC where the results are close would be good for him.
Maybe it's best for him to hold his funds until after Nev/SC, then spend like crazy until Super Tuesday.