What do you expect Ron to get in NH?

[shagywashere]

I expect him and Huck be competing for third. I think Romney or McCain may take the state...

[Micahyah]

It will be between Paul, Huck, and Rudy for 3rd.

[shagywashere]

I think Rudy is out of the race now....

[JohnnyWrath]

Ames, Iowa straw poll results
8/11/2007
5th place
9.1%



TRY TO LOOK AHEAD TO THE BIG PICTURE...next stop....New Hampshire.

Strafford County, NH straw poll results
8/18/2007
1st place
72.2% of the votes

Manchester, NH Straw Poll
9/16/2007
1st place
65.0% of the votes

[AtomiC]

I predict it will be between McCain and Ron Paul for 1st.

[shagywashere]

bump

[LibertyEagle]

Ames, Iowa straw poll results
8/11/2007
5th place
9.1%



TRY TO LOOK AHEAD TO THE BIG PICTURE...next stop....New Hampshire.

Strafford County, NH straw poll results
8/18/2007
1st place
72.2% of the votes

Manchester, NH Straw Poll
9/16/2007
1st place
65.0% of the votes

Those were much smaller straw polls in New Hampshire. You know that.

[shagywashere]

bumpin

[ronpaulfollower999]

Those were much smaller straw polls in New Hampshire. You know that.

We have won almost every straw poll in New Hampshire. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_polls_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_Sta tes%29_presidential_nomination%2C_2008

[tgannaway89]

We have a much better chance of pulling off a 3rd place here! As long as the RP supporters are out in full force.

[colecrowe]

I think he will get, and has to get at least 2nd behind McCain. If it's behind anyone else, that 1st place finisher will go on to win it. And it will be something like

McCain 29% (Not all of the voters will be anti-war--not even close, so he will win, but his showing in Iowa will hurt him, as well as the Polls not showing Paul's true support)
Ron Paul 20% (But a ton of voters will be anti-war--if we get the vote out 20% is extremely probable)
Romney 19% (Romney will lose support due to his negative campaign, and support going to others like Thompson and Huckabee based on Iowa, and the polls not showing Paul's true support)
Huck 16% (He will definitely pick up a bit from Iowa, but NH will still reject him)
Giuliani 9% (I don't think he will lose much support even due to Iowa, he is the perfect sheeple candidate)
Thompson 7% (he will pick up because of his 3rd place in Iowa)

such that no one really has strong support! That is the key.

So I really think it has to be at least 2nd to have a sure shot (or any shot) at the Nomination. And McCain has to win instead of Romney or Huckabee, because one of those two can sweep it from there. I say that because I don't think McCain can possibly get the nomination based on his Amnesty problem. And if Romney (or even Huckabee) gets 1st, and Paul gets at least third, he won't have a shot at the nomination and will have to show well through Feb 5th so he can start his Independent run.

If he get's a strong third, and continues doing really well all the way through Feb 5th (like 16%+), then he can probably start his Independent run and go on to win the Presidency that way.

But we would need some absolutely amazing national infomercials or forget it.

Pray for horrible weather, it looks pretty mild now:http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/nh/nhz008.txt

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.


Real Clear Politics Average:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/new_hampshire-primary.html
McCain 31
Romney 30
Giuliani 10
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7
Thompson 2

Pollster Average:http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
McCain 31
Romney 26
Huckabee 11
Giuliani 10
Paul 8
Thompson 2

[pickfair]

I think it really depends on the actual turnout. If it weren't for that database sabotage, who knows, maybe we could've gotten 4th in Iowa, maybe even 3rd, since 3rd and 5th weren't that far apart. In any case, every supporter in NH who can walk and write needs to show up and shout Ron Paul. I do believe RP has a lot of supporters all over the nation. We just need to get busy and start moving, to make a real difference.

[stevedasbach]

Paul 3rd in New Rasmussen Poll (released today -- taken yesterday after Iowa)

Details in a thread in Official Campaign News
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=76707