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liberty_Forever
01-04-2008, 03:39 AM
The 2008 Iowa caucuses are now history. A state otherwise known for...what? Cold weather and corn? Well, whatever Iowa is or isn't, Iowans have

For those who think Iowa is too unrepresentative to have such an important place, they can continue to grouse when Wyoming holds its Republican primaries on Saturday. Wyoming may be the only state that could make New Hampshire (where both parties have primaries in five - oops, four - days) look positively metropolitan. But good luck figuring out if anyone in Wyoming even cares - the Casper Star-Tribune has a single editorial that endorses Mitt Romney, but there are as many stories on Lindsey Lohand and snow flurries in Florida as there are mentions of the primary. That's one more article than the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle has (though there is a rousing discussion of eight local races).

So the real shift is towards New Hampshire, right?. Huckabee, is running third while Romney and McCain vie for the win. The good news for just about everyone is that there are a lot of undecided voters in New Hampshire.

For Republicans, there will be two races in New Hampshire. The first is between McCain and Romney - and it's anyone's guess who might pull it out. The second will be between Huckabee and Ron Paul for third. If Paul can creep ahead of Huckabee in this Evangelical-less state (relatively), then Huckabee just might begin to look like a one-hit wonder in Iowa. This is what Mitt Romney fervently prays will happen. If Romney edges out McCain, then the Senator's campaign will be all but finished. If it is McCain that comes out on top, then Romney begins to look like the poor little rich kid who couldn't buy an election (remember Steve Forbes?).

Fred Thompson, meanwhile, can forget the ice and snow - he isn't going to make double digits in New Hampshire anyway. Instead of chatting with Jay Leno, he can try and spend a few days catching Huckabee in South Carolina. If he can't make at least a second-place finish in Carolina, he might want to start reading scripts again and make a call to his agent.

If Huckabee can't beat Ron Paul in New Hampshire, he runs the risk of seeing his lead in South Carolina fall to a resurgent McCain or Romney. Carolina will also be the first time Hizzoner 9/11 will play a signficant role - but it will be the role of spoiler. It's probably too early for McCain or Huckabee or Romney to talk to Mayor Disaster about dropping out for a VP spot (maybe after "Super Duper Tuesday), but after dropping Iowa and New Hampshire, that's likely the only role that will be left to anyone who can't finish in the top three in Carolina.

So we look past Wyoming to New Hampshire. Republicans are starting a round-robin tournament with a double elimination rule. You don't have to win, but you have to finish in the top three consistantly - and probably in the top two at least once - our you're out. That puts a lot of pressure on Fred Thompson. McCain can overcome a poor showing in Iowa with a win in New Hampshire - but anything less can throw him out. Romney can survive a second place in New Hampshire if he remains in the top three in Carolina.

And through it all Ron Paul will demonstrate how dissatisfied the libertarian wing of the Republican Party is with whoever places in the top three. Since libertarians tend to be more secular than not, his continued presence is a boon to Mike Huckabee, who depends heavily on faith-based voting. If John McCain has to bow out after South Carolina, there will be many reasons - but chief among them will be the ability of a nondescript doctor from Texas to give voice to a core constituency who is feeling unloved and unwelcomed in the Republican Party.

C-Dogg
01-04-2008, 03:42 AM
IOWA, SMART PEOPLE LIVE HERE. Is that on their license plate? No! Not that there's anything wrong with 75 year old farmers in coveralls with 7th grade educations, but it's NOT REALLY OUR DEMO.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, on the other hand, LIVE FREE OR DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10% is a respectable percent. Would you want 10% of an STD. NO! Would you want 10% of the richest man's fortune, SURE YOU WOULD!

10% is serious beans. 10% is 1/10. It's one finger from one of your hands. That's the MOST BASIC UNIT THAT IS INSTINCTIVELY KNOWN TO MANKIND.

NJ Carlos
01-04-2008, 03:46 AM
Guys, stop being ignorant. If Paul placed or showed in Iowa with 15%+ you would all be cheering and boasting of his accomplishment. Frankly, Paul did exceptionally well and many who have discounted his influence are now reconsidering. I must concur that his outcome in NH will be pivotal. I disagree with the fact that just because Iowa isn't "representative" that it means nothing: look at all the coverage the winners are receiving. To place in the early primaries guarantees strong media coverage which is what Dr. Paul NEEDS!

Paulitician
01-04-2008, 03:51 AM
Guys, stop being ignorant. If Paul placed or showed in Iowa with 15%+ you would all be cheering and boasting of his accomplishment. Frankly, Paul did exceptionally well and many who have discounted his influence are now reconsidering. I must concur that his outcome in NH will be pivotal. I disagree with the fact that just because Iowa isn't "representative" that it means nothing: look at all the coverage the winners are receiving. To place in the early primaries guarantees strong media coverage which is what Dr. Paul NEEDS!
Exactly. Some people just don't get it. Ron Paul also said we'd beat expectations. Most here thought we'd get 3rd. The polls were pretty correct, while we all thought they were missing a lot of RP support. The turn out RP got in Iowa is honorable, but could have and should have done so much better. We only needed 4k to get third (50 more on average for every precinct). We had 4009 people on the forums at one time yesterday. Whaterver... hopefully the people in NH learn from this, as well as everyone else. TURN OUT.

jupiter
01-04-2008, 03:53 AM
IOWA, SMART PEOPLE LIVE HERE. Is that on their license plate? No! Not that there's anything wrong with 75 year old farmers in coveralls with 7th grade educations, but it's NOT REALLY OUR DEMO.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, on the other hand, LIVE FREE OR DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10% is a respectable percent. Would you want 10% of an STD. NO! Would you want 10% of the richest man's fortune, SURE YOU WOULD!

10% is serious beans. 10% is 1/10. It's one finger from one of your hands. That's the MOST BASIC UNIT THAT IS INSTINCTIVELY KNOWN TO MANKIND.


I've been a Ron Paul supporter for the past several years -- I just activated my account on this site. I wanted my first post to address precisely the type of negativity, and frankly, "childishness" that the quoted post epitomizes -- the type that puts a lot of the general public off.

When we post on this site, we have to remember that we are not just posting amongst ourselves; it is a public endeavor and undecided voters may certainly be browsing the forums and influenced by not only the content, but also the style of our discussions.

Civility, in all manner of discourse, is vital.

C-Dogg
01-04-2008, 03:55 AM
I've been a Ron Paul supporter for the past several years -- I just activated my account on this site. I wanted my first post to address precisely the type of negativity, and frankly, "childishness" that the quoted post epitomizes -- the type that puts a lot of the general public off.

When we post on this site, we have to remember that we are not just posting amongst ourselves; it is a public endeavor and undecided voters may certainly be browsing the forums and influenced by not only the content, but also the style of our discussions.

Civility, in all manner of discourse, is vital.

Tell that to Huckabee, the Nixonesque foul mouth and his foul mouthed campaign manager. They just got first. What are you, the CHASTITY BRIGADE?

liberty_Forever
01-04-2008, 03:58 AM
NJ Carlos

I posted an article because if you study closely it reveals a strategy that indicates NH is not "make or break". Paul just needs to get his message to Christian voters in NH and outsurge Huckster... can NH see thru Huckster....we will see... !

As for C-Dog, I'm not sure what drugs he's on right now , but he seems happy.


All in all this is not a bad start. We just need to completely double the effort level and organize better!

Kingfisher
01-04-2008, 06:14 AM
I've been a Ron Paul supporter for the past several years -- I just activated my account on this site. I wanted my first post to address precisely the type of negativity, and frankly, "childishness" that the quoted post epitomizes -- the type that puts a lot of the general public off.

When we post on this site, we have to remember that we are not just posting amongst ourselves; it is a public endeavor and undecided voters may certainly be browsing the forums and influenced by not only the content, but also the style of our discussions.

Civility, in all manner of discourse, is vital.
I agree.

Man from La Mancha
01-04-2008, 06:16 AM
LOL:D:D

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/2410/maxmw7.jpg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xrn6c4Eq1M)