What do you expect Ron will get in NH?

[shagywashere]

I think he will get 2nd or 3rd. I predict McCain being 1st followed by Romney, then Paul, then Huckabee.


First would be great but I think Romney or McCain will grab that. Ron and Huckabee will competing for third.

[Paulitician]

5th. I'm low-balling it to make sure I'm not disappointed again :(

[JayDee]

5th. I'm low-balling it to make sure I'm not disappointed again :(

Screw that, shoot for the moon or you may not get over the fence.

Ron Paul will WIN NH.

[fredricko]

Wolf Blitzer says that Ron Paul will be more influential in New Hampshire than in Iowa so we shouldn't write him off yet.

1 McCain
2 Romney
3 Close Race Between Paul, Huckabee, and Giuliani.

[coffeewithchess]

5th. I'm low-balling it to make sure I'm not disappointed again :(

LOL, I agree, I say he will get 8th place, behind Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes.

[shagywashere]

LOL, I agree, I say he will get 8th place, behind Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes.

LOL that would be the end of the world...

[B9vot3r]

i think 18-20% is a realistic goal to shoot for. not sure what place that achieves, but it cant be below 3rd place.

if he goes higher, ill drink myself stupid so that everyone can love me that much more the next day at work.

[Paulitician]

We're polling even lower in NH than we are in Iowa. :confused:

[NJ Carlos]

I expect 3rd because of the vast amount of independents in NH. He was on the tail of McCain and Thompson and will definitely place/show in NH.

[NJ Carlos]

We're polling even lower in NH than we are in Iowa. :confused:

McCain 31.3
Romney 28.8
Giuliani 10.0
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7.0
Thompson 2.3

Expect a bigger discrepancy due to the lack of a clear-cut partisan population.

Edit: also note that Paul was polling 7.3 in Iowa on aggregate stats on realclearpolitics.com

[coffeewithchess]

I think Alan Keyes will place first and RP will place 8th, behind Duncan Hunter(who will place 7th, regardless if he is still in the race by then).

[Paulitician]

I think Alan Keyes will place first and RP will place 8th, behind Duncan Hunter(who will place 7th, regardless if he is still in the race by then).
:D

[bolognium]

5th. I'm low-balling it to make sure I'm not disappointed again :(

I'm with you on that.. I think we should be prepared for the worst, after all - this is just one Presidential election.. the big change needs to happen in Congress... that's the failure - it was known Presidents would abuse power and Congress is neither checking or balancing.

[JohnnyWrath]

Ames, Iowa straw poll results
8/11/2007
5th place
9.1%



TRY TO LOOK AHEAD TO THE BIG PICTURE...next stop....New Hampshire.

Strafford County, NH straw poll results
8/18/2007
1st place
72.2% of the votes

Manchester, NH Straw Poll
9/16/2007
1st place
65.0% of the votes

[coffeewithchess]

RP will finish in 8th place behind Duncan Hunter, but Alan Keyes will shock the WORLD with a 1st place in New Hampshire!
Paul/Keyes08!

[Think12345]

Ames, Iowa straw poll results
8/11/2007
5th place
9.1%



TRY TO LOOK AHEAD TO THE BIG PICTURE...next stop....New Hampshire.

Strafford County, NH straw poll results
8/18/2007
1st place
72.2% of the votes

Manchester, NH Straw Poll
9/16/2007
1st place
65.0% of the votes

I like this logic :)

[pickfair]

All the same, I'm not getting my hopes up too high. I was surprised to find how disappointed I got at first yesterday. I predict he'll come in 3rd, and 2nd may be possible as well.

[jorlowitz]

No top 5 placement is insignificant. Every time Paul places above 6th it means he beat out one of the "front-runners". As long as he is always beating one of the front-runners, it legitimizes his continuing growth and efforts.

As for New Hampshire, Paul should do well. But, it's really wide open. I could see him getting 3rd realistically, but 4th or even 5th wouldn't shock me. I don't think that means the campaign has failed either. There are a lot of people in the country. Paul will win more votes as more people who haven't been involved in politics vote and as more supporters convert those who they talk to about politics.

5th, 4th, maybe a 3rd in Wyoming... Paul will have credibility to last him AT LEAST to Feb 5.

There needs to be a MASSIVE ad campaign in feb 5th states. I'm hoping the campaign buys Jeremiah black's ads and plasters them all over the country. They're very effective, modern, and refreshing.

[shagywashere]

bump

[all J's in IL for RP]

3rd. I'm an optimist. I said a close 3rd for Iowa, and was only 3% off. Middle of the pack is good, a close 4th may be unavoidable with a Huckabee surge, but that would solidify viability in some eyes.

[Alex Libman]

What New Hampshire has going for it is already being the most libertarian state in the nation before it was chosen by the Free State Project (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project), all the things the FSP members have done thus-far, "Operation Live Free or Die", etc, etc, etc.

What Iowa has going for it is corn exports (http://www.statemaster.com/graph/ind_foo_man_tot_val_of_shi_pergdp-total-value-shipments-per-gdp), Tom Arnold, and a bunch of binge-drinking (http://www.statemaster.com/graph/hea_alc_con_bin_dri-health-alcohol-consumption-binge-drinkers) old farts (http://www.statemaster.com/graph/peo_per_of_peo_who_are_85_yea_and_ove-percent-who-85-years-over) who believe in talking snakes.

Don't even dare compare the two! Ron Paul will win NH!

[stevedasbach]

4th, maybe 3rd. I don't think there is enough time to boost the total higher.

[jupiter]

i would be very very happy (ecstatic) for a 3rd place finish

[CelestialRender]

I'm reasonably expecting a 3rd in NH; hoping for a 2nd.

But again, let's not get too excited. The trolls had a field day last night playing on people's fears.

But then there are so many other events before Tsunami Tuesday. Some of which people forget about.

[LARRY08RP]

I take a look at the straw poll results.

Straw Poll result of Iwoa in Ames was a 5th place as we saw today.

Tomorrow we have Wyoming and republicans only and one straw poll with the clear winner Romney and one smaller poll with the winner Paul.

I think Wyoming is the perfect state for Romney and Paul somewhere between 2-6.

2-6 because i really don't know what to expect.

The New Hampshire straw poll results are absolutly clear pro Ron Paul.

Three polls three times with results like 66-10, 73-3, 182-22 between first and second place.

Important is that Paul won early polls in july and august as he was not so well known as now.

So i expect a bigger basis of supporters and an absolutly must is first or second place.

[Austin]

Realistically, I think we will get 4th. If OLFD starts doing actual work, instead of just sign waving (just what I've heard from my sources) then we could pull off a solid 3rd place.

After working 12 hour days in Iowa and seeing a 5th place, I'm not too optimistic anymore.

[LARRY08RP]

Realistically, I think we will get 4th. If OLFD starts doing actual work, instead of just sign waving (just what I've heard from my sources) then we could pull off a solid 3rd place.

After working 12 hour days in Iowa and seeing a 5th place, I'm not too optimistic anymore.



Stay optimistic for the next days. If poeple take a look into the forums and see that we are doubtful of the victory we loose voters.

We have to be optimistic.

[shagywashere]

Agreed

[romeo2]

lowballing for 5th place.

[gaazn]

third.

nothing is wrong with third. one step at a time. for you football fans, think of it like the bcs in football. did kansas lose confidence when they were ranked low in the polls and no one noticed them? slowly they moved up and now they might finish second after a big victory yesterday.

[CapitalistRadical]

I'd like the best, but, I don't really care. Let's keep up the fight just as hard, whether he's in first place or last!

[abruzz0]

LOL, I agree, I say he will get 8th place, behind Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes.


lmfao

[shagywashere]

Alan Keyes will be first Ron won't even get 1 vote.

[ClayTrainor]

i only care about beating mccain in NH... our position doesnt matter as much as beating mccain does!

[Fight-n-Mad]

Ames, Iowa straw poll results
8/11/2007
5th place
9.1%



TRY TO LOOK AHEAD TO THE BIG PICTURE...next stop....New Hampshire.

Strafford County, NH straw poll results
8/18/2007
1st place
72.2% of the votes

Manchester, NH Straw Poll
9/16/2007
1st place
65.0% of the votes

Yeah, I think the straw polls are a more accurate measure of support than the phone polls. It's much easier to answer the phone than it is to cast a ballot.

[merrimac]

I voted fourth because it is critical that we shake off this over-confidence. He's not going to get first, second, or third unless we make it happen. The Iowan Ron Paul supporters who heard of Ron Paul and knew he was speaking the truth but decided to stay home should be absolutely ashamed of themselves right now. Our country is burning and if you are unwilling to take a few hours out of your life to help it, you almost deserve to be classified as a traitor.

[thoughtbombing]

We're polling even lower in NH than we are in Iowa. :confused:

take the signs on the lawns in NH poll and we're winning.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

I'll say 5th. After last night, I guess I have to hold the polls innocent until proven guilty. Prove me wrong, NH.

[colecrowe]

McCain 29% (Not all of the voters will be anti-war--not even close, so he will win, but his showing in Iowa will hurt him, as well as the Polls not showing Paul's true support)
Ron Paul 20% (But a ton of voters will be anti-war--if we get the vote out 20% is extremely probable)
Romney 19% (Romney will lose support due to his negative campaign, and support going to others like Thompson and Huckabee based on Iowa, and the polls not showing Paul's true support)
Huck 16% (He will definitely pick up a bit from Iowa, but NH will still reject him)
Giuliani 9% (I don't think he will lose much support even due to Iowa, he is the perfect sheeple candidate)
Thompson 7% (he will pick up because of his 3rd place in Iowa)

[thoughtbombing]

DEAD LAST... unless you view this post and take action:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=75193

[Paulfan05]

Mccain in a youtube video said yesterday he thinks its ok if troops stayed in Iraq for 100 years, kinda like Korea, Paul must get him on this one

[~River~]

The media's mantra,pre-caucus, on the 3rd was "A win in Iowa has not historically translated into a win for the presidency" My opinion is that the media was covering themselfs in the event that RP showed 3rd or better in Iowa which means that even in a state known for conservatism and a state that is used to farm subsides RP was a legitemate threat. I don't think that we should let this bring us down that we "only" got 10%. I think we did phenomanal taking into account the factors to include the media blackout of RP. New Hamshire is a totally different demographic and I think in NH we will show 3rd or better thus giving the RP movement the much needed media coverage to place in the other primarys. It doesn't end in Iowa for us, we all still believe in the message and that hasn't changed. Let's look at this positively and bolster our efforts even more than ever to win this all the way!!!!!

[Rob]

Zogby was right on the money in Iowa saying Paul will get 10. For NH, he says he disagrees with his own Poll that predicts about 8, and believes Ron Paul will get between 15 and 18. I'm not sure how he arrived at that, but I suggest everyone take note. IF we do get that much I think 3rd place looks pretty assured and we will send shockwaves throughout the country. The talk about Ron Paul will chance from "he's not going to win to" well, "maybe, just maybe he can pull it off."

[shagywashere]

Tr00

[Justicar333]

I'm expecting a fairly strong second place. And hoping for a landslide first. ;)