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liberty_Forever
01-04-2008, 03:30 AM
Okay this is great !




The 2008 Iowa caucuses are now history. A state otherwise known for...what? Cold weather and corn? Well, whatever Iowa is or isn't, Iowans have

For those who think Iowa is too unrepresentative to have such an important place, they can continue to grouse when Wyoming holds its Republican primaries on Saturday. Wyoming may be the only state that could make New Hampshire (where both parties have primaries in five - oops, four - days) look positively metropolitan. But good luck figuring out if anyone in Wyoming even cares - the Casper Star-Tribune has a single editorial that endorses Mitt Romney, but there are as many stories on Lindsey Lohand and snow flurries in Florida as there are mentions of the primary. That's one more article than the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle has (though there is a rousing discussion of eight local races).

So the real shift is towards New Hampshire, right?. Huckabee, is running third while Romney and McCain vie for the win. The good news for just about everyone is that there are a lot of undecided voters in New Hampshire.

For Republicans, there will be two races in New Hampshire. The first is between McCain and Romney - and it's anyone's guess who might pull it out. The second will be between Huckabee and Ron Paul for third. If Paul can creep ahead of Huckabee in this Evangelical-less state (relatively), then Huckabee just might begin to look like a one-hit wonder in Iowa. This is what Mitt Romney fervently prays will happen. If Romney edges out McCain, then the Senator's campaign will be all but finished. If it is McCain that comes out on top, then Romney begins to look like the poor little rich kid who couldn't buy an election (remember Steve Forbes?).

Fred Thompson, meanwhile, can forget the ice and snow - he isn't going to make double digits in New Hampshire anyway. Instead of chatting with Jay Leno, he can try and spend a few days catching Huckabee in South Carolina. If he can't make at least a second-place finish in Carolina, he might want to start reading scripts again and make a call to his agent.

If Huckabee can't beat Ron Paul in New Hampshire, he runs the risk of seeing his lead in South Carolina fall to a resurgent McCain or Romney. Carolina will also be the first time Hizzoner 9/11 will play a signficant role - but it will be the role of spoiler. It's probably too early for McCain or Huckabee or Romney to talk to Mayor Disaster about dropping out for a VP spot (maybe after "Super Duper Tuesday), but after dropping Iowa and New Hampshire, that's likely the only role that will be left to anyone who can't finish in the top three in Carolina.

So we look past Wyoming to New Hampshire. Republicans are starting a round-robin tournament with a double elimination rule. You don't have to win, but you have to finish in the top three consistantly - and probably in the top two at least once - our you're out. That puts a lot of pressure on Fred Thompson. McCain can overcome a poor showing in Iowa with a win in New Hampshire - but anything less can throw him out. Romney can survive a second place in New Hampshire if he remains in the top three in Carolina.

And through it all Ron Paul will demonstrate how dissatisfied the libertarian wing of the Republican Party is with whoever places in the top three. Since libertarians tend to be more secular than not, his continued presence is a boon to Mike Huckabee, who depends heavily on faith-based voting. If John McCain has to bow out after South Carolina, there will be many reasons - but chief among them will be the ability of a nondescript doctor from Texas to give voice to a core constituency who is feeling unloved and unwelcomed in the Republican Party.

colecrowe
01-04-2008, 03:39 AM
link?