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View Full Version : 1:10 ratio Donater:Voter - Translate to N.H.




Paulite5112007
01-04-2008, 12:29 AM
How many donors from New Hampshire? Times that by ten...what percent of the vote will that be (assume 10% increase from 2000 turnout).

Eponym_mi
01-04-2008, 12:34 AM
We should look at Michigan too.

alexpasch
01-04-2008, 12:35 AM
this is not going to be an accurate calculation...

voter turnout in nh is different than in iowa...(much higher)

Paulite5112007
01-04-2008, 12:37 AM
Right...about 40% of registered voters.

They are also a few ocgtaves smarter. But N.H. had the highest percentage of donors per million residents according to ronpaulgraphs.

The strong showing in Iowa and a good outcome in Wyoming would help and not register...

But how many donors did we end up with in N.H.?

Eponym_mi
01-04-2008, 12:38 AM
Our state campaign coordinator was telling me we'd need 23000 to turnout just in my county. 10 x 2100 donors for all of Michigan? Yikes!

newmedia4ron
01-04-2008, 12:38 AM
NH PLAN

Put some relationships on the line. Stress to close apathetic friends/family how much this means to you (Its not like you're lying you're here right). All your asking is for one day of their time.

How many times have they dragged you to bad films and such. They owe you.

(If they agree to do it for you make sure they are registered and make sure you drag them the to the polling place when the time comes)

If every NH Ron Paul supporter brought 3 people into the primary who were never going to vote for anyone in the first place, we QUADRUPLE OUR EXPECTED TURNOUT!

Lets get this viral. You and the extra 3. You and the extra 3. You and the extra 3. You and the extra 3. You and the extra 3.....

Note:I'm not saying to to try and convert your 100% neocon father or your 100% liberal activist sister. Everyone has family members or friends that are apathetic and might do this one time only thing because you show them how important this is to you.

Bring the waterworks if you have to.
Promise them a huge party or something, we can do this!

RonPaulCult
01-04-2008, 12:45 AM
673 people donated from Iowa in Q4. You would have to multiply that number by 17 to reach the total number of votes Ron Paul got tonight (with 96% reporting)

Likewise 686 New Hampshire residents donated to RP in Q4 so we could only expect about the same number of votes using your theory. That would be really really bad to only get that many votes.

Paulite5112007
01-04-2008, 12:52 AM
From ronpaulgraphs, N.H. had over TWICE the per capita donor rate (521 to 250 per million residents) which translates to twice the support from that standpoint.

The 1200 donors was from Q2, Q3 and Q4 from Iowa (from what I gathered).

RonPaulCult
01-04-2008, 12:57 AM
From ronpaulgraphs, N.H. had over TWICE the per capita donor rate (521 to 250 per million residents) which translates to twice the support from that standpoint.

The 1200 donors was from Q2, Q3 and Q4 from Iowa (from what I gathered).

Could you link this information. I have a hard time finding things on ronpaulgraphs

Perry
01-04-2008, 12:57 AM
From ronpaulgraphs, N.H. had over TWICE the per capita donor rate (521 to 250 per million residents) which translates to twice the support from that standpoint.

The 1200 donors was from Q2, Q3 and Q4 from Iowa (from what I gathered).

New Hampshire's population is less than half that of Iowa. This bodes well.

austin356
01-04-2008, 12:58 AM
more accurate would be 10:1 x 4 even though such is completely arbitrary.

colecrowe
01-04-2008, 12:59 AM
N.H. donations 5x more than Iowa (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=69914)

Paulite5112007
01-04-2008, 12:59 AM
Add that he did VERY well among independants in Iowa and N.H. should be better to us than Bush Lovin' Iowa (over 60% approval - WOW! - had I known, I would not have predicted 10%).

RPinSEAZ
01-04-2008, 01:00 AM
Can you correlate to a previous year's candidate given the new info we have for Iowa?

RickLovesRon
01-04-2008, 01:03 AM
Add that he did VERY well among independants in Iowa and N.H. should be better to us than Bush Lovin' Iowa (over 60% approval - WOW! - had I known, I would not have predicted 10%).

omg i had no idea iowa was 60% approval.. crazy! 10% is great for us! wish it was 14% though.. just for that bronze metal

Perry
01-04-2008, 01:05 AM
In the fourth quarter NH had twice as many donors as Iowa. Iowa has more than twice the population of NH. If we are to trust this algorithm then NH has 4x as many supporters as Iowa.
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html

GunnyFreedom
01-04-2008, 01:06 AM
Yeah, I actually just heard about the CNN entrance poll that placed caucus voters giving GW Bush a 70% approval rating. OMG! with THAT 70% nonsense I'm surprised we got 10%. seriously.

Molly1
01-04-2008, 01:07 AM
Democrats had twice the number of turn out as Republican.

Democratic turnout exploded.

Economic conservatives in Republican party are attacking Huckabee tonight.

227K democrats turned out versus 120K republicans tonight

New Hampshire is a much more liberal/ libertarian state than Iowa.

>In New Hampshire Obama will focus on Independent men and Republican women.<

Obama is going to show the voters he's willing to challenge the status quo [read:change] even if it's uncomfortable and they can do the same.


Obama is going after our voters in New Hampshire folks. We have to show them why Ron Paul is better. Sheeesh just on experience Ron Paul is better.

Molly1
01-04-2008, 01:09 AM
omg i had no idea iowa was 60% approval.. crazy! 10% is great for us! wish it was 14% though.. just for that bronze metal

Obama won in Iowa.

Molly1
01-04-2008, 01:11 AM
CNN pundits actually said that now that huckabee is a winner, he is going to have to work out what issues he's supporting.

omg