Peace&Freedom
01-04-2008, 12:11 AM
The Iowa results show two things are evident in big league politics---
celebrities and well-oiled voting blocs help BIG TIME. Obama had
Oprah and youth activists (who showed up), Huck had Chuck and
evangelicals, so notice who finished first in both parties. Paul HQ
as well as the grassroots should take notice, and see if creative
projects can be mounted to gain celebrity endorsements (Barry
Manilow?) and key organized groups. But it appears Paul did hit the
'silicon ceiling' of the internet pretty hard tonight, and needs more
offline assets to optimize his chances.
The story of the night is by far Obama's trouncing of Hillary, and
the 'Obama can win in a white state' meme, so any momentum of
Huckabee and Romney is blunted. Strategically we are on track to a
Paul victory in at least a brokered convention, with the chess game
of a divided Republican field working to Paul's overall advantage.
McCain winning NH would actually be just as OK as Huck winning IA in
the long term scheme of things, as Huckabee and McCain really have no
$$ legs for the rest of the race. And the momentum McCain was supposed
to get out of IA for NH is blunted by the surpise finish of Thompson above him.
McCain is NOT in a great position going into NH, because he came in fourth
below a candidate who was about to quit the race. Plan A (Paul winning
IA and NH) is off the table, but plans B and D are still in play. As I posted
elsewhere weeks ago:
"If Romney places first in Iowa and NH, the MSM will almost certainly
spin it as a one-two momentum punch that makes him the locked-in
primary frontrunner/winner. So Huck's Iowa surge gums up that first
punch and makes things more difficult for Romney, which should make
things easier for Paul. OUR best plans to win the initial 'primary
momentum game' stack like this:
Plan A---Paul wins Iowa, Paul wins New Hampshire.
Plan B---Huckabee wins Iowa, Paul wins New Hampshire.
Plan C---Paul wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire.
Plan D---Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire.
NH is more important than IA, thus winning it without IA ranks higher
than winning IA without NH. If Huck or McCain win IA/NH it keeps the
primary race 'up in the air' since almost no one thinks those two
will win the nomination, so it keeps the race open for Paul. ANY
scenario with Romney winning IA is way worse for Paul, because of the
momentum issue. But if Paul wins NH it can help neutralize Romney
because he defeats 'the favorite son' area candidate and undermines
Romney's inevitability (the media will still try to paint Romney as
the man to beat, though). If Romney wins both IA and NH, it's the
worst scenario for Paul to gain traction."
Note the worst scenario--Romney winning IA and NH--did not happen, so tonight was not the worst outcome.
celebrities and well-oiled voting blocs help BIG TIME. Obama had
Oprah and youth activists (who showed up), Huck had Chuck and
evangelicals, so notice who finished first in both parties. Paul HQ
as well as the grassroots should take notice, and see if creative
projects can be mounted to gain celebrity endorsements (Barry
Manilow?) and key organized groups. But it appears Paul did hit the
'silicon ceiling' of the internet pretty hard tonight, and needs more
offline assets to optimize his chances.
The story of the night is by far Obama's trouncing of Hillary, and
the 'Obama can win in a white state' meme, so any momentum of
Huckabee and Romney is blunted. Strategically we are on track to a
Paul victory in at least a brokered convention, with the chess game
of a divided Republican field working to Paul's overall advantage.
McCain winning NH would actually be just as OK as Huck winning IA in
the long term scheme of things, as Huckabee and McCain really have no
$$ legs for the rest of the race. And the momentum McCain was supposed
to get out of IA for NH is blunted by the surpise finish of Thompson above him.
McCain is NOT in a great position going into NH, because he came in fourth
below a candidate who was about to quit the race. Plan A (Paul winning
IA and NH) is off the table, but plans B and D are still in play. As I posted
elsewhere weeks ago:
"If Romney places first in Iowa and NH, the MSM will almost certainly
spin it as a one-two momentum punch that makes him the locked-in
primary frontrunner/winner. So Huck's Iowa surge gums up that first
punch and makes things more difficult for Romney, which should make
things easier for Paul. OUR best plans to win the initial 'primary
momentum game' stack like this:
Plan A---Paul wins Iowa, Paul wins New Hampshire.
Plan B---Huckabee wins Iowa, Paul wins New Hampshire.
Plan C---Paul wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire.
Plan D---Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire.
NH is more important than IA, thus winning it without IA ranks higher
than winning IA without NH. If Huck or McCain win IA/NH it keeps the
primary race 'up in the air' since almost no one thinks those two
will win the nomination, so it keeps the race open for Paul. ANY
scenario with Romney winning IA is way worse for Paul, because of the
momentum issue. But if Paul wins NH it can help neutralize Romney
because he defeats 'the favorite son' area candidate and undermines
Romney's inevitability (the media will still try to paint Romney as
the man to beat, though). If Romney wins both IA and NH, it's the
worst scenario for Paul to gain traction."
Note the worst scenario--Romney winning IA and NH--did not happen, so tonight was not the worst outcome.