View Full Version : Concentrate on Obama, McCain supporters

01-03-2008, 11:46 PM
Tonight was disappointing but if you think about it, not disastrous. I really thought we'd at least get fourth, but we almost did, and the 3rd and 4th place guys were bunched up so close that a "mere" 4 thousand more people would have caused us to leapfrog over both of them. In any case, Bill Clinton's fortune wasn't made in Iowa. Why should Paul's be?

Those in the know always said Iowa wasn't our best state and the campaign's been concentrating more on NH, I believe. While we shouldn't stereotype Iowa as a bunch of "pasty-faced, evangelical subsidized corn farmers), there were a lot of zombies who crawled out of the woodwork for the Huckster. Almost 70% of GOP caucus-goers were OK with Bush's performance in the White House. So much for the Huckster being the Change Candidate.

This does make New Hampshire that much more important. We must move mountains for NH.

Actually are big problem tonight was that we only got a measly 7% of Republicans. But we actually won the plurality of independents (29% I think). The problem is independents only made up 13% of the GOP voters. But I hear the NH has something like 40% of independents.

We must get these independents to vote for RP in NH. Many, many independent young people went stupidly for Obama. They think Obama means "change." We must show them that that is not so. Obama is nothing more than the "Change Candidate" of the Establishment. So is Huckabee, but don't worry so much about Huckabee supporters. Mostly voting for their religion. RP is very religious, I hear, but he doesn't wear it on his sleeve. Will never get most of the 700 Club crowd to buy that though. I think maybe one of our problems was that we worried to much about Huckabee. I still don't think Huckabee's going anywhere. But Obama might and there will now be a huge number of independents rushing to Obama in NH. That's a big problem. I really wish Hillary had beaten Obama tonight.

The MSM airwaves are now filled with talk of "Change Candidates" and, of course, dropping every name but RP as representing that. While I try not to be a tinfoil-hatter, I wonder if that's no accident. We must show Obama voters who the REAL Change Candidate is.

Also McCain. I'm very pleased he only got 4th in Iowa. That might knock down his resurgency a few pegs. It'll also keep Thompson in the race a little while longer and keep things more up in the air. McCain gets a large percentage of independent voters too. We should cut into his support.

Also keep sending the campaign money!!! This is one of our greatest strengths and biggest claims to legitimacy. It is also most of the other campaigns biggest weaknesses. Don't let being in the middle of primaries distract from this. I recommend sticking to money bombs. We raised over half of our 4th quarter money from money bombs. The Benjamins one seems to be getting the most traction now. Let's concentrate on it.

We know Ron Paul will stick it out as long as he possibly can (hopefully all the way to the White House). With money, money, money, MONEY Ron Paul can stick it out through Feb 5th. The more money the better. The more money he has the more competitive he'll be in all those Feb 5th states.

Remember that the other candidates--especially the poorer ones--will start dropping out. This might be a good thing or a bad thing. On the one hand, the conventional wisdom of RP supporters has it that the crowded "top tier" splits the war vote. They may be right. On the other hand, there may be a lot of evangelicals supporting Huckabee, independents supporting McCain and otherwise conservative war hawks supporting Thompsons who might be able to stomach Paul before Romney and Rudy and the others. Candidates will be dropping out sooner or later and Ron Paul may pick up more face time in their absence, as well as some of their support.

In this scenario, if RP can stick it out after some of the others have ridden into the sunset, he can win AS LONG AS HE SEEMS A LEGITIMATE ELECTABLE CANDIDATE to the voters. Iowa actually is a win in this sense. 10% in a hostile state that he didn't spend too much time in is nothing to scoff at. Beating Giuliani is symbolically useful, even though he had thrown Iowa out the window anyway. Keep pounding away at FOX for excluding RP, keep raising money, keep pushing for NH, Nevada, Michegan. If by Feb 5th, Rudy and Paul are the last men standing, and RP has been doing decently otherwise--enough to seem electable and enough to have face-time in the media--you might actually get a lot of disaffected conservatives and evangelicals chucking the War out the window and rallying for Paul. I think McCain's our biggest threat though, let's hope he's below expectations in NH.

We don't want to hang our hat on that of course. We must not be foolishly optimistic. But we can't despair either--despair truly means death. 10% is 1 out of every 10 people. 1 out of every 10 people in IOWA of Paulites (a state in which more the 1 out of 3 are Huckazombees). No more excessive optimism. But no cynicism either. We must KEEP GIVING MONEY, convert independents from Obama and McCain, and raise publicity.

01-03-2008, 11:48 PM
I don't have anything to add to this.

01-04-2008, 12:01 AM
Also, don't let the media nonsense get you down. For one thing, I think RP's showing surpassed THEIR expectations anyway.