AggieforPaul

01-03-2008, 11:17 PM

The RCP polls dont add up to 100%. The polls were extremely prescient today, and had us down almost to a T.

View Full Version : Quit saying we outperformed the polls.

AggieforPaul

01-03-2008, 11:17 PM

The RCP polls dont add up to 100%. The polls were extremely prescient today, and had us down almost to a T.

einjun

01-03-2008, 11:22 PM

true ........ but we'll know for sure after NH

itsnobody

01-03-2008, 11:27 PM

The latest Iowa poll was exactly right, saying Ron Paul was at 10%

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

stevedasbach

01-03-2008, 11:37 PM

The latest Iowa poll was exactly right, saying Ron Paul was at 10%

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

I agree that the stuff about land lines & polling Republicans is bogus. However, we did outperform the polls.

The realclearpolitics.com average in Iowa was 7.3%. Including Hunter, Keyes, etc. at 1% total, the percentages total 94.2% Our percentage of the 94.2% works out to 7.75%. We're at 10% even right now, which is 29% higher than we were polling right before the caucus.

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

I agree that the stuff about land lines & polling Republicans is bogus. However, we did outperform the polls.

The realclearpolitics.com average in Iowa was 7.3%. Including Hunter, Keyes, etc. at 1% total, the percentages total 94.2% Our percentage of the 94.2% works out to 7.75%. We're at 10% even right now, which is 29% higher than we were polling right before the caucus.

drexhex

01-03-2008, 11:39 PM

The latest Iowa poll was exactly right, saying Ron Paul was at 10%

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

Uh... Yeah. OK. You're on my ignore list now too. The second ever, by the way, and the first was earlier today.

Go back to living under your bridge, Troll. Don't worry, we'll restore your freedoms too.

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

Uh... Yeah. OK. You're on my ignore list now too. The second ever, by the way, and the first was earlier today.

Go back to living under your bridge, Troll. Don't worry, we'll restore your freedoms too.

itsnobody

01-03-2008, 11:39 PM

I agree that the stuff about land lines & polling Republicans is bogus. However, we did outperform the polls.

The realclearpolitics.com average in Iowa was 7.3%. Including Hunter, Keyes, etc. at 1% total, the percentages total 94.2% Our percentage of the 94.2% works out to 7.75%. We're at 10% even right now, which is 29% higher than we were polling right before the caucus.

Right the average is off, but the latest Zogby poll right before the caucus said Ron Paul at 10%

So the polls were accurate in placing Ron Paul as 5th, now I know that polls really are very accurate unlike what Ron Paul videos tricked people into thinking

The realclearpolitics.com average in Iowa was 7.3%. Including Hunter, Keyes, etc. at 1% total, the percentages total 94.2% Our percentage of the 94.2% works out to 7.75%. We're at 10% even right now, which is 29% higher than we were polling right before the caucus.

Right the average is off, but the latest Zogby poll right before the caucus said Ron Paul at 10%

So the polls were accurate in placing Ron Paul as 5th, now I know that polls really are very accurate unlike what Ron Paul videos tricked people into thinking

Highstreet

01-03-2008, 11:40 PM

The latest Iowa poll was exactly right, saying Ron Paul was at 10%

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

You are still talking about Iowa, where Bushbots still rule despite the rest of the country waking up.

And there aren't a huge number of cell phone only people in Iowa.

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

You are still talking about Iowa, where Bushbots still rule despite the rest of the country waking up.

And there aren't a huge number of cell phone only people in Iowa.

stevedasbach

01-03-2008, 11:44 PM

Right the average is off, but the latest Zogby poll right before the caucus said Ron Paul at 10%

So the polls were accurate in placing Ron Paul as 5th, now I know that polls really are very accurate unlike what Ron Paul videos tricked people into thinking

That's only one poll. Others had him as low as 4%. The average was 7.3%.

I agree that we should pay attention to polls, and assume that at best we will outperform them by a few percentage points. OTOH, our support in the polls climbed dramatically in the ten days prior to the caucus. We can push the numbers up -- we just have to keep pushing.

So the polls were accurate in placing Ron Paul as 5th, now I know that polls really are very accurate unlike what Ron Paul videos tricked people into thinking

That's only one poll. Others had him as low as 4%. The average was 7.3%.

I agree that we should pay attention to polls, and assume that at best we will outperform them by a few percentage points. OTOH, our support in the polls climbed dramatically in the ten days prior to the caucus. We can push the numbers up -- we just have to keep pushing.

Naraku

01-03-2008, 11:45 PM

It's not bogus. Look at the people who showed up. I can pretty much guarantee most of them had land lines, not cell phones.

rfbz

01-03-2008, 11:53 PM

The latest Iowa poll was exactly right, saying Ron Paul was at 10%

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

it's a bit of a stretch to say it was a lie, people really thought that a lot of RP supporters weren't being called on for those reasons.

So now we know that polls really are correct, and all that nonsense about LAN lines and polling Republicans was all just a delusional lie

it's a bit of a stretch to say it was a lie, people really thought that a lot of RP supporters weren't being called on for those reasons.

Naraku

01-03-2008, 11:56 PM

It still applies damn it. The turnout was low and largely older people. Most of them probably used landlines.

This doesn't change anything. Remember, none of the polls showed Huckabee stomping Romney like he did.

This doesn't change anything. Remember, none of the polls showed Huckabee stomping Romney like he did.

Galileo Galilei

01-04-2008, 12:07 AM

I agree that the stuff about land lines & polling Republicans is bogus. However, we did outperform the polls.

The realclearpolitics.com average in Iowa was 7.3%. Including Hunter, Keyes, etc. at 1% total, the percentages total 94.2% Our percentage of the 94.2% works out to 7.75%. We're at 10% even right now, which is 29% higher than we were polling right before the caucus.

Only Huckabee and Ron Paul did much better than their RCP average:

Huckabee 30% to 34%

Paul 7% to 10%

About the same:

McCain 12% to 13%

Thompson 12% to 13%

Overrated by the polls:

Romney 27% to 25%

Giuliani 6% to 3%

It should be noted that the final polls, besides Zogby, all low-balled RP:

LA Times 1%

Strategic Vision 4%

American Research Group 6%

Mason Dixon 5%

Quad City Times 8%

Rasmussen 6%

Insider Advantage 7%

CNN 8%

Des Moines Register 9%

Please note that if Ron Paul were polling between 10% and 20% in the past month, he would have gotten 15 times as much media coverage and would have raised a lot more money than he did.

The realclearpolitics.com average in Iowa was 7.3%. Including Hunter, Keyes, etc. at 1% total, the percentages total 94.2% Our percentage of the 94.2% works out to 7.75%. We're at 10% even right now, which is 29% higher than we were polling right before the caucus.

Only Huckabee and Ron Paul did much better than their RCP average:

Huckabee 30% to 34%

Paul 7% to 10%

About the same:

McCain 12% to 13%

Thompson 12% to 13%

Overrated by the polls:

Romney 27% to 25%

Giuliani 6% to 3%

It should be noted that the final polls, besides Zogby, all low-balled RP:

LA Times 1%

Strategic Vision 4%

American Research Group 6%

Mason Dixon 5%

Quad City Times 8%

Rasmussen 6%

Insider Advantage 7%

CNN 8%

Des Moines Register 9%

Please note that if Ron Paul were polling between 10% and 20% in the past month, he would have gotten 15 times as much media coverage and would have raised a lot more money than he did.

AggieforPaul

01-04-2008, 12:10 AM

But we still finished within the margin of error. Like it or not, we cant take mediocre poll numbers lightly anymore.

Galileo Galilei

01-04-2008, 12:41 AM

But we still finished within the margin of error. Like it or not, we cant take mediocre poll numbers lightly anymore.

We did not finish within the margin of error, except Zogby and the Des Moines Register:

the statistical margin of error in a poll where someone is polling at 10% or less is, typically, about 1%. Every single poll except Zogby was off by twice the margin of error. Since the statistical margin of error is a 95% confidence interval, the probability of poll being off by two margins of error is 400 to 1. Eight of the ten polls cited above were off by at least two margins of error. This is basically impossible, and proof that the polls were rigged in advance.

Formula for margin of error:

If you are polling at P% and the stated Margin of error of the poll is M%, the stated M% is only valid when P% = 50%

Let R% = the real margin of error

Then R% = [(P%)(1 - P%) x M%]/2500

We did not finish within the margin of error, except Zogby and the Des Moines Register:

the statistical margin of error in a poll where someone is polling at 10% or less is, typically, about 1%. Every single poll except Zogby was off by twice the margin of error. Since the statistical margin of error is a 95% confidence interval, the probability of poll being off by two margins of error is 400 to 1. Eight of the ten polls cited above were off by at least two margins of error. This is basically impossible, and proof that the polls were rigged in advance.

Formula for margin of error:

If you are polling at P% and the stated Margin of error of the poll is M%, the stated M% is only valid when P% = 50%

Let R% = the real margin of error

Then R% = [(P%)(1 - P%) x M%]/2500

ronpaulitician

01-04-2008, 12:47 AM

About what I expected. I think polls underrepresent Paul's support by about 25%.

Gimme Some Truth

01-04-2008, 01:00 AM

But we still finished within the margin of error. Like it or not, we cant take mediocre poll numbers lightly anymore.

State polls near to the date of the state's vote , yea

National , right now .... not so much.

State polls near to the date of the state's vote , yea

National , right now .... not so much.

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