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View Full Version : Has our "cell phone" theory been debunked?




AggieforPaul
01-03-2008, 10:31 PM
Real Clear politics basically called the GOP field perfectly. Only difference is Thompson is beating McCain, but its minimal, and RCP had them w/i .1 of each other.

I hope some new polls come out for New Hampshire soon, or else we're looking at another 5th place finish.

Jeremy
01-03-2008, 10:32 PM
Isn't the Iowa caucus known for old people?

slamhead
01-03-2008, 10:32 PM
Isn't the Iowa caucus known for old people?


No its just that all their cell phones were out of town with them on Xmas break.

Cunningham
01-03-2008, 10:33 PM
They have cell phones in Iowa?:D j/k

newmedia4ron
01-03-2008, 10:33 PM
I don't know about that.

Mani
01-03-2008, 10:34 PM
RP finished 5th in the straw poll as well, and 2 of those guys BrownBack and Tancredo are gone. Basically McCain and Thompson took their spots.

That's annoying.

I was hoping for 3rd, but would have been happy with 4th. I'm ok with 10% because it's double digits but 5th doesn't feel great. At least it's better than Guiliani.

Shaun
01-03-2008, 10:34 PM
Cell phone theory= DEBUNKED.
I hate to say it but the polling fools got it right. They were a lot, lot closer than I thought.
That said, NH is more difficult to call.
Main point in Iowa was, where in the hell was our youth vote? That's the disappointing part in my mind, I expected several thousand young people to vote for RP.

Mani
01-03-2008, 10:35 PM
Cell phone theory= DEBUNKED.
I hate to say it but the polling fools got it right. They were a lot, lot closer than I thought.
That said, NH is more difficult to call.
Main point in Iowa was, where in the hell was our youth vote? That's the disappointing part in my mind, I expected several thousand young people to vote for RP.

He finished first in Ames. It was a few college students...But yeah, cell phone theory didn't pan out.

Mani
01-03-2008, 10:38 PM
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080103/NEWS09/80103062/1001/NEWS

first in ames.

austin4paul
01-03-2008, 10:40 PM
Aimes, Iowa Straw Poll - 5th place - 9.1% of the vote
Iowa Caucus - 5th place - 10% of the vote

Up Next - NH

Straw Polls:

Strafford County, NH - 1st place - 72.2% of the vote
Manchester, NH - 1st place - 65% of the vote

Enough said?

jd603
01-03-2008, 10:41 PM
It's not debunked. CNN reported it themselves, TODAY. The final results for each of the ~1800 precincts are entered into a central computer by dialing (not necessarily with a cel phone, but any phone) into it, that computer then calculates the results from all the precincts and spits out an answer.

This is how the process worked tonight.


Cell phone theory= DEBUNKED.
I hate to say it but the polling fools got it right. They were a lot, lot closer than I thought.
That said, NH is more difficult to call.
Main point in Iowa was, where in the hell was our youth vote? That's the disappointing part in my mind, I expected several thousand young people to vote for RP.

Mani
01-03-2008, 10:41 PM
Aimes, Iowa Straw Poll - 5th place - 9.1% of the vote
Iowa Caucus - 5th place - 10% of the vote

Up Next - NH

Straw Polls:

Strafford County, NH - 1st place - 72.2% of the vote
Manchester, NH - 1st place - 65% of the vote

Enough said?


nice!!!

jgmaynard
01-03-2008, 10:41 PM
It's one data point. This single piece of evidence DOES seem to be contrary to the landline bias theory. Not enough evidence to throw out a hypothesis for me yet, but it's possible. Talk to me after Super Tuesday. :)

JM

Ivanelterrible
01-03-2008, 10:42 PM
Independents.

austin4paul
01-03-2008, 10:43 PM
He finished first in Ames. It was a few college students...But yeah, cell phone theory didn't pan out.

No silly, not the little student one, the REAL one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/12/us/politics/12straw.html

jonahtrainer
01-03-2008, 10:45 PM
Cell phone theory= DEBUNKED.
I hate to say it but the polling fools got it right. They were a lot, lot closer than I thought.
That said, NH is more difficult to call.
Main point in Iowa was, where in the hell was our youth vote? That's the disappointing part in my mind, I expected several thousand young people to vote for RP.

He had 21% of the 18-29 vote group. So, they turned out. There were just a bunch of old people who came out. We needed a huge blizzard.

NYgs23
01-03-2008, 10:47 PM
When you take the average of the latest polls together we were several points above expectations. The big point was turnout. I'd hoped that would really do well for Paul, but now I think there are actually a lot of GOP zombies who schlep to the caucuses every year out of custom.

We did win a plurality of independents and there are a lot on independents in NH. I recommend concentrating in Obama and McCain voters.

jarofclay
01-03-2008, 11:00 PM
Aimes, Iowa Straw Poll - 5th place - 9.1% of the vote
Iowa Caucus - 5th place - 10% of the vote

Up Next - NH

Straw Polls:

Strafford County, NH - 1st place - 72.2% of the vote
Manchester, NH - 1st place - 65% of the vote

Enough said?


Sweet

Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice
01-03-2008, 11:05 PM
50,000 students are out of state on semester break. They didn't move up the caucus for shits and giggles.

jmdrake
01-03-2008, 11:40 PM
Aimes, Iowa Straw Poll - 5th place - 9.1% of the vote
Iowa Caucus - 5th place - 10% of the vote

Up Next - NH

Straw Polls:

Strafford County, NH - 1st place - 72.2% of the vote
Manchester, NH - 1st place - 65% of the vote

Enough said?

There's just one problem with this. There were over 14,000 votes in the Iowa straw poll and only 286 in the Strafford county poll. (Not sure how many in Manchester). Heck, just our meetup members in NH likely exceeded 200 at the time of the poll. I think we'll do better in NH than in IA, but I don't expect the straw poll numbers to match up. Anyway, we'll know in a few days.

Regards,

John M. Drake

Naraku
01-03-2008, 11:51 PM
*sigh* Most of the voters were older and thus have land lines. The only thing that kept the polls accurate was Paul's low turnout of young voters in Iowa. Had that been better, he probably would have gotten third.