Danny
01-03-2008, 10:24 PM
Iowa is done, and it looks like we've got some work to do. New Hampshire's primary is just a few days away, so we don't have time to complain, argue, quit, or celebrate.
We need to look at the results and objectively identify what we did right or wrong. Do we need to make adjustments or change our strategy?
I think that the most noticeable lesson concerns polls. We were banking on the polls being completely wrong and they weren't. An average of Iowa polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html) had us at 7.3%, and it looks like we're going to finish around 10%. The New Hampshire poll average (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html) is currently at 7%, so we need to assume that right now we would truly pull around 10% in that state as well.
On the positive side, even though many of us were disappointed with the results we were definitely "in the pack". Voters have been hearing for months from the MSM that we didn't have a chance, so perhaps these results will help establish some legitimacy for us. Voters in other states who like our message but were withholding support because we didn't have a chance may now consider voting for us.
Most importantly, I think we need to work to spread the message that this caucus was a win for Ron Paul, and that it confirmed his legitimacy as a candidate.
Ron Paul voters seem to consist primarily of "hardcore" supporters. Although we have more hardcore supporters than any other candidate, we have to expand our appeal to attract more casual voters. How can we pull these voters that have been gravitating to McCain in New Hampshire? What can we do to pull evangelical Huckabee supporters in SC?
Obama pulled an overwhelming % of the independent vote in Iowa. Is there anything we can do to appeal to these independents?
Thoughts?
We need to look at the results and objectively identify what we did right or wrong. Do we need to make adjustments or change our strategy?
I think that the most noticeable lesson concerns polls. We were banking on the polls being completely wrong and they weren't. An average of Iowa polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html) had us at 7.3%, and it looks like we're going to finish around 10%. The New Hampshire poll average (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html) is currently at 7%, so we need to assume that right now we would truly pull around 10% in that state as well.
On the positive side, even though many of us were disappointed with the results we were definitely "in the pack". Voters have been hearing for months from the MSM that we didn't have a chance, so perhaps these results will help establish some legitimacy for us. Voters in other states who like our message but were withholding support because we didn't have a chance may now consider voting for us.
Most importantly, I think we need to work to spread the message that this caucus was a win for Ron Paul, and that it confirmed his legitimacy as a candidate.
Ron Paul voters seem to consist primarily of "hardcore" supporters. Although we have more hardcore supporters than any other candidate, we have to expand our appeal to attract more casual voters. How can we pull these voters that have been gravitating to McCain in New Hampshire? What can we do to pull evangelical Huckabee supporters in SC?
Obama pulled an overwhelming % of the independent vote in Iowa. Is there anything we can do to appeal to these independents?
Thoughts?